UBS predicts Fed will cut interest rates deeply in the spring

[SouthJamaica]

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@Chappy6995 wrote:

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@SouthJamaica wrote:

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@Chappy6995 wrote:

I am firmly middle class and dont spread extremism like you do. In fact, I have never done better in my life. That speaks volumes about those on this site that spread the doom and gloom.

And your 'feelings' are meaningless. And your business major does not seem to be doing you any favors. Last but not least, you have been preaching an impending economic crash for several years. You should take some time for self reflection.

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Your posts in this thread have been very disrespectful, rude, and off topic.  Please stop. 

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My comments speak the truth. I see that posting the facts causes real consternation for the extremists here who seemingly live like they are victims of the boogeyman.

I rarely comment here because of the extremism, even after over a decade of coming here. 'Feelings' are not facts. That will never change.

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And yet you have posted no facts and nothing but your "feelings".

[kh-cathy29811]

Hello, everyone. This thread is getting a little heated. Please be respectful of others. Thanks!

[youngandcreditwrthy]

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@CreditCuriosity wrote:

To early to consider cutting rates yet.  Just my humble opinion until inflation is in the 2-3% range which by no means are we there yet.  Rather wait another year of pain then have to replay this in a few more years again.

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incorrect, the official YOY inflation is at 3.1% according to BLS and BEA. of course, commodities (like oil) are not included in their "basket of goods" determination.

Commodities NOT being included in the official headline econ numbers are part of the issue. I also have an Economics degree and my monetary policy instructor worked with Volker. :-) ie Volker's Rule. iykyk

[CreditCuriosity]

circle back later to this

[Anonymalous]

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@youngandcreditwrthy wrote:

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@CreditCuriosity wrote:

To early to consider cutting rates yet.  Just my humble opinion until inflation is in the 2-3% range which by no means are we there yet.  Rather wait another year of pain then have to replay this in a few more years again.

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incorrect, the official YOY inflation is at 3.1% according to BLS and BEA. of course, commodities (like oil) are not included in their "basket of goods" determination.

Commodities NOT being included in the official headline econ numbers are part of the issue. I also have an Economics degree and my monetary policy instructor worked with Volker. :-) ie Volker's Rule. iykyk

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If you have an economic degree, then you know it's misleading to say the numbers published by the BLS represent inflation. Not only is the basket unrepresentative (e.g. the core numbers don't include energy, as you noted) and misapplied (e.g. a price index based on urban wage-earners isn't good for social security recipients), but they employ techniques like substitution (which explicitly assumes people will adapt to a lower standard of living, instead of calculating the cost of maintaining the same standard of living, i.e. price inflation). The government has every incentive to reduce the reported numbers, so they've been tweaking it downwards since the 1970s. If they used the definition during Volker's reign, inflation this time would have easily peaked in the mid to high teens instead of in the single digits. The BEA's focus on the GDP is better, but GDP itself is highly flawed. For instance it only measures the final value, and thus understates production.

I think a lot of people are feeling this discrepancy every time they go to a grocery store.

[CreditCuriosity]

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@Anonymalous wrote:

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@youngandcreditwrthy wrote:

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@CreditCuriosity wrote:

To early to consider cutting rates yet.  Just my humble opinion until inflation is in the 2-3% range which by no means are we there yet.  Rather wait another year of pain then have to replay this in a few more years again.

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incorrect, the official YOY inflation is at 3.1% according to BLS and BEA. of course, commodities (like oil) are not included in their "basket of goods" determination.

Commodities NOT being included in the official headline econ numbers are part of the issue. I also have an Economics degree and my monetary policy instructor worked with Volker. :-) ie Volker's Rule. iykyk

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If you have an economic degree, then you know it's misleading to say the numbers published by the BLS represent inflation. Not only is the basket unrepresentative (e.g. the core numbers don't include energy, as you noted) and misapplied (e.g. a price index based on urban wage-earners isn't good for social security recipients), but they employ techniques like substitution (which explicitly assumes people will adapt to a lower standard of living, instead of calculating the cost of maintaining the same standard of living, i.e. price inflation). The government has every incentive to reduce the reported numbers, so they've been tweaking it downwards since the 1970s. If they used the definition during Volker's reign, inflation this time would have easily peaked in the mid to high teens instead of in the single digits. The BEA's focus on the GDP is better, but GDP itself is highly flawed. For instance it only measures the final value, and thus understates production.

I think a lot of people are feeling this discrepancy every time they go to a grocery store.

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Said what I was thinking and didn't have time to present as well as this poster did.  

[markbeiser]

If you are needing new HVAC/R equipment, you will be experiencing 40-200% inflation over prices 2 years ago on equipment, and potential 6+ month back orders on some things...

[Lou-natic]

I love how the Government changed the definition of recession so they could deny we're in one. Under the old definition we are deep into a recession and have been since last year. Also the fact that our "official" inflation numbers doesn't include things like "energy" is a load of nonsense. The fact is our lives revolve around energy. From the lights to our cars and our entire connected lives. It is the fundemental thing that makes all of what we have what it is. How it's not included is honestly baffling.