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## FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes

Valued Contributor

## Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Sunday, April 4, 2021

@CassieCard wrote:

@iv wrote:

The concrete numbers provided are for EQ 8 Auto...

Oh and nice work @iv , plugging that formula in and generating the chart! That's very, very helpful!

So... digging further into the "magic numbers" in that formula:

-0.110 x FICO Auto Score 8 is the easy one: that scales the 900 score range to a 1-99 range. (Or 27.5-99, with the floor at 250).

Which matches the range of the FRI score... (and you'll note that it's explict that the better your FICO 8 score, the more the penalty increases.)

-1.728 x FRI is less obvious (...although it appears to be -sqrt(e*log(3)), I'm not sure if that's meaningful, or accidental?)

But the combination of the two (without the magic fudge factor of 132.329) gives a range of -100.728 at the 1/900 ("best/best") end of the range, to -198.572 at the 99/250 ("worst/worst") end.  Which is within rounding error of a 99-point spread, and likely part of the design.

With that in place for the best/best and worst/worst axis, the 1/250 ("best/worst") and 99/900 ("worst/best") axis ends up at -29.228 and -270.072 - which is a 2.4x wider spread.  Probably also intentional - having a wider spread on the "mismatched" axis seems to make sense.

"Raw" offset ranges (without +132.329 factor):

 250 900 1 -29.228 -100.728 99 -198.572 -270.072

Now... those are all negative offsets (some fairly large!), and while they express the RANGE of variation FICO was aiming for, they don't hit the MAGNITUDE desired.  Thus the +132.329 fudge factor - to adjust the "zero point" (where the offset formula has no effect). This adjusts the ranges so that a 44/500, a 38/600, a 32/700, a 25/800, and 19/900 has no net negative (or positive) effect.

The spread remains the same as the "raw" numbers, but now at the high (FICO 8 Auto) score end, you have about 1/5 with a positive offset, and 4/5 with a negative, while at the low end you have a 60/40 positive/negative split.

"Adjusted" offset ranges (with +132.329 factor):

 250 900 1 103.101 31.601 99 -66.243 -137.743

Based on all of that... anything worse than a 60 FRI is a negative across the board, regardless of score (with higher scores being penalized much more - the penalty gap between 250 and 900 is about 72 points).  Meanwhile, any FRI better than 20 is a positive across the board (with  lower scores getting boosted much more - same 72 point gap at the extremes).  Between 20/900 and 60/250, the "zero point" for FRI follows a fairly smooth line every 15-20 points (see the chart in the prior post).

EQ8:850 TU8:850 EX8:850
EQ9:850 TU9:850 EX9:850
EQ5:796 TU4:806 EX2:809 - 2021-04-06
Message 1001 of 1,053
Senior Contributor

## Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Sunday, April 4, 2021

@iv wrote:

@CassieCard wrote:

@iv wrote:

The concrete numbers provided are for EQ 8 Auto...

Oh and nice work @iv , plugging that formula in and generating the chart! That's very, very helpful!

So... digging further into the "magic numbers" in that formula:

-0.110 x FICO Auto Score 8 is the easy one: that scales the 900 score range to a 1-99 range. (Or 27.5-99, with the floor at 250).

Which matches the range of the FRI score... (and you'll note that it's explict that the better your FICO 8 score, the more the penalty increases.)

-1.728 x FRI is less obvious (...although it appears to be -sqrt(e*log(3)), I'm not sure if that's meaningful, or accidental?)

But the combination of the two (without the magic fudge factor of 132.329) gives a range of -100.728 at the 1/900 ("best/best") end of the range, to -198.572 at the 99/250 ("worst/worst") end.  Which is within rounding error of a 99-point spread, and likely part of the design.

With that in place for the best/best and worst/worst axis, the 1/250 ("best/worst") and 99/900 ("worst/best") axis ends up at -29.228 and -270.072 - which is a 2.4x wider spread.  Probably also intentional - having a wider spread on the "mismatched" axis seems to make sense.

"Raw" offset ranges (without +132.329 factor):

 250 900 1 -29.228 -100.728 99 -198.572 -270.072

Now... those are all negative offsets (some fairly large!), and while they express the RANGE of variation FICO was aiming for, they don't hit the MAGNITUDE desired.  Thus the +132.329 fudge factor - to adjust the "zero point" (where the offset formula has no effect). This adjusts the ranges so that a 44/500, a 38/600, a 32/700, a 25/800, and 19/900 has no net negative (or positive) effect.

The spread remains the same as the "raw" numbers, but now at the high (FICO 8 Auto) score end, you have about 1/5 with a positive offset, and 4/5 with a negative, while at the low end you have a 60/40 positive/negative split.

"Adjusted" offset ranges (with +132.329 factor):

 250 900 1 103.101 31.601 99 -66.243 -137.743

Based on all of that... anything worse than a 60 FRI is a negative across the board, regardless of score (with higher scores being penalized much more - the penalty gap between 250 and 900 is about 72 points).  Meanwhile, any FRI better than 20 is a positive across the board (with  lower scores getting boosted much more - same 72 point gap at the extremes).  Between 20/900 and 60/250, the "zero point" for FRI follows a fairly smooth line every 15-20 points (see the chart in the prior post).

Really nice, @iv !

Now that I see the pattern in your chart combined with some sort of link to Euler's number, plus the scaling, I'm thinking there's a sigmoid function in all of this. I need to look at some plots in R.

They only gave us information about FICO Auto 8, so I can only speculate about the coefficients used for FICO 8 Classic. It's clear that a dividing line similar to the one you found will exist there.

Keeper of the Scrolls of Resilience: EQ FICO Resilience Index Score Leaderboard (59 People!)

Message 1002 of 1,053
Valued Contributor

## Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Sunday, April 4, 2021

@CassieCard wrote:

Now that I see the pattern in your chart combined with some sort of link to Euler's number, plus the scaling, I'm thinking there's a sigmoid function in all of this. I need to look at some plots in R.

Maybe? But I'm not sure about that - I haven't drawn any fancy graphs from this yet, but just eyeballing the numbers, it looks pretty linear...

@CassieCard wrote:

They only gave us information about FICO Auto 8, so I can only speculate about the coefficients used for FICO 8 Classic. It's clear that a dividing line similar to the one you found will exist there.

Yup. If I had to speculate on what the Classic variation for FRI looks like, I'd go with:

(-1.728 x FRI) + (-0.11647 x EQ 8 Classic) + 127

...or something very close to that.

(Chart the resulting numbers against the 300-850 range, and you'll see why.)

Important note for anyone who isn't just here to play with the math: unlike the formula from the FICO document discussed earlier, the one here is purely speculative. Don't use it for anything other than having fun with the current gedankenexperiment.

On a related note: just had the new \$50k loan show up on the reports - and the FRI change was... nada. zlitch. zero. Still "52: Moderate", with exactly the same red flags as before. Disappointing! I figured it would move at least a little bit. (8/9 Classic unchanged, mortgage and some industry options wiggled slightly. Boring!)

EQ8:850 TU8:850 EX8:850
EQ9:850 TU9:850 EX9:850
EQ5:796 TU4:806 EX2:809 - 2021-04-06
Message 1003 of 1,053
Mega Contributor

## Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Sunday, April 4, 2021

I pulled my 3B yesterday. Same score. 🤷 Balances are down across the board, but not enough yet evidently.

So sensitive!!

Last HP 09-14-2020

Message 1004 of 1,053
Senior Contributor

## Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Sunday, April 4, 2021

I pulled my 3B yesterday. Same score. 🤷 Balances are down across the board, but not enough yet evidently.

@Adkins: I'll update the date on the board.

Keeper of the Scrolls of Resilience: EQ FICO Resilience Index Score Leaderboard (59 People!)

Message 1005 of 1,053
Senior Contributor

## EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Thursday, April 8, 2021

 EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard as of Thursday, April 8, 2021
 Breaking News @Adkins hangs on to the Golden Chalice and Golden Swordwith a recently updated score of 80! @CreditAggie to 57 with that excellent Citi Costco Visa card!@iv is back with a bang at 52, posting an excellent chartthat shows how much a FICO Auto 8 score can be adjustedbased on a certain Resilience Index score.(This is the offset I mentioned in an earlier post, but the chart makes it so much clearer!) How to obtain this score: See #10 in this myFICO blog post. General Information about this score New score factor information from FICO dated December 2020.Top 10 Questions About the FICO® Resilience Index  myFICO Blog PostFICO issued a press release about this score and it triggered a flurry of articles in the press.The Washington Post published an article about this 'new score'.Plenty more articles on Google here.Many article authors are wondering if/when consumers will be able to obtain their score. (lol)The first score was submitted to this thread on March 29, 2020.Podcast Interview: A VP of Scores at FICO talks about the new FICO Resilience Index.My highlights from the interview above.This Resilience Index score is included with a myFICO subscription. It will be shown on the dashboard. And as always - lower rating (higher number) doesn't mean that person has a bad credit profile in any way.This score is really sensitive to balance amounts and it doesn't matter if you have a 600 or 850.

 RECORD HOLDER& KEEPER OFTHE GOLDEN SWORD! EQ FICO RESILIENCE INDEX Adkins 80 04-06-2021

 MEMBER NAME* denotes former award winnersee bottom of post SCORES REDFLAGS HIGHSCORE DATEClick for Individual Profile Data RESILIENT [1-44] GOLD KEY WINNERS juggernaut9* 32 0 32 03-03-2021 mrsgrits' DH 32 0 32 11-01-2020 LP007 34 0 34 12-21-2020 CreditBones 37 0 37 12-01-2020 Lulah* 37 0 37 07-24-2020 USDOD 37 0 37 12-26-2020 THE BAT tacpoly [EQ 8 850] 39 0 39 10-04-2020 JWD1980* 40 0 40 07-26-2020 LaHossBoss SO 40 0 40 02-26-2021 Throckmorton's Wife* 40 ? 40 05-07-2020 Tonya-E 43 0 43 02-10-2021 MODERATE [45-59] FiresOut 45 2 45 06-05-2020 LaHossBoss* 45 2 41 02-24-2021 PicoFico 45 2 45 04-30-2020 Bankrupt2019 46 2 46 12-29-2020 EW800 46 2 46 05-01-2020 sjt 47 2 47 01-06-2021 Thomas_Thumb 48 2 48 04-07-2020 jasonbourne84 49 2 49 10-08-2020 nwa479 49 2 49 03-24-2021 Trudy 49 2 49 06-12-2020 iv 52 2 52 04-05-2021 angelwingz 53 2 53 04-09-2020 CassieCard 53 2 53 03-11-2021 KLEXH25 53 2 53 07-26-2020 Credit4Growth 54 2 54 07-30-2020 Face_Value 54 2 54 10-17-2020 Flyingifr 56 2 56 07-21-2020 kilroy8 56 ? 56 06-11-2020 mgood 56 2 55 03-28-2021 TMB_ 56 2 56 06-01-2020 CreditAggie 57 2 56 04-05-2021 mrsgrits 57 2 57 11-06-2020 Mr_Mojo_Risin 58 2 54 04-03-2021 sarge12 58 2 58 03-09-2021 Chris865 [OP] 59 2 52 03-24-2021 SENSITIVE [60-69] joeyv1985 60 2 56 03-13-2021 coreysw12 61 2 60 11-18-2020 CreditObsessedinFL 61 2 56 12-??-2020 NRB525 63 2 63 04-06-2020 Remedios 63 2 63 06-06-2020 Dogbert* 64 2 64 06-25-2020 OmarGB9 64 2 64 08-22-2020 SecretAzure 64 2 64 03-15-2021 Birdman7 65 2 60 02-20-2021 Revelate 65 2 63 06-14-2020 RehabbingANDBlabbing 66 2 66 03-29-2020 thornback 66 2 66 12-12-2020 CreditCuriosity* 68 3 68 02-22-2021 Dumbee 68 2 56 09-11-2020 jayk1 69 ? 69 09-05-2020 VERY SENSITIVE [70-99] K-in-Boston* 70 3 70 11-04-2020 Dmessina666* 72 3 72 12-30-2020 GApeachy 72 3 72 02-06-2021 jasonbourne84's DH 72 3 72 10-11-2020 Kenro* 72 ? 72 05-03-2020 Brian_Earl_Spilner* 78 3 72 12-06-2020 GOLDEN CHALICE WINNER ANDKEEPER OF THE GOLDEN SWORD Adkins 80 3 80 04-06-2021

 * FORMER AWARD WINNERS *
 MEMBER NAME AWARD TROPHY FOR DATEClick for Individual Profile Data Brian_Earl_Spilner GOLDEN CHALICE Lowest rating: 76 10-01-2020 Brian_Earl_Spilner GOLDEN SWORD Record Low Rating: 76 10-01-2020 CreditCuriosity GOLDEN CHALICE Lowest rating: 75 09-23-2020 Dmessina666 GOLDEN CHALICE Lowest rating: 78 09-17-2020 Dmessina666 GOLDEN SWORD Record Low Rating: 78 09-17-2020 Dogbert GOLDEN CHALICE Lowest rating: 76 04-03-2020 Dogbert GOLDEN SWORD Record Low Rating: 76 04-03-2020 juggernaut9 GOLD KEY Highest Rating: 37 11-03-2020 JWD1980 GOLD KEY Highest Rating: 40 07-26-2020 K-in-Boston GOLDEN CHALICE Lowest rating: 73 09-04-2020 Kenro GOLDEN CHALICE Lowest rating: 72 05-03-2020 Kenro GOLDEN SWORD Record Low Rating: 72 05-03-2020 LaHossBoss GOLD KEY Highest rating: 41 04-17-2020 Lulah GOLD KEY Highest Rating: 37 07-24-2020 Throckmorton's Wife GOLD KEY Highest Rating: 40 05-07-2020

All awards are from this game: Adventure (1980) (Atari 2600) Level 3 play through

The Bat is awarded for best EQ 8 score with lowest Resilience Index score. The bat can fly away with any award - even a dragon!

Meet the creator of the Resilience Index.

Keeper of the Scrolls of Resilience: EQ FICO Resilience Index Score Leaderboard (59 People!)

Message 1006 of 1,053
Established Contributor

## Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Thursday, April 8, 2021

Slight change again this month. No major changes, just paying down SL.

Wallet: Amex BCP-39k| Barclays Rewards MC-26.3k| Citi Thank You Preferred-27.5k| Citi Double Cash-14k| Target MC-11k| Walmart MC-7.5k| Chase Freedom Unlimited Signature-6k

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Message 1007 of 1,053
Valued Contributor

## Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Thursday, April 8, 2021

@Tonya-E wrote:

Slight change again this month. No major changes, just paying down SL.

42 is pretty solid! I'm trying to make my way there, keep fluctuating between 54-58. Pesky score! 😅

NFCU More Rewards 24K CL
NFCU Cash Rewards 4000 CL
Discover IT 1,500 CL
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*We survived it, now comes the progress*
Previously Bowiefan
Message 1008 of 1,053
Senior Contributor

## Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Thursday, April 8, 2021

@Tonya-E wrote:

Slight change again this month. No major changes, just paying down SL.

Got it, @Tonya-E ! I'll update the board after I use my monthly 3B later today and get a new Resilience score.

Keeper of the Scrolls of Resilience: EQ FICO Resilience Index Score Leaderboard (59 People!)

Message 1009 of 1,053
Senior Contributor

## Re: FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes

I think Average Age of Revolving Accounts (AAoRA, yeah it's a thing alright) helped me this month with this score, because I can't explain it any other way. Unless my total credit limit being raised by \$9,500 this month had something to do with it. Who knows how they segment this thing.

At 4-of-4 with \$1807 in aggregate balance (6%), I had an EQ FRI of 56.

This time I'm at 4-of-4 with \$1999 in aggregate balance (5%), and I get a EQ FRI of 54?(AAoRA = 1yr9mo, nothing else is a multiple of 3 either.)

April 2021 EQ FRI score.

Keeper of the Scrolls of Resilience: EQ FICO Resilience Index Score Leaderboard (59 People!)

Message 1010 of 1,053
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