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FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes

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iv
Valued Contributor

Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Sunday, April 4, 2021


@Anonymous wrote:

@iv wrote:

The concrete numbers provided are for EQ 8 Auto...

 

Screen Shot 2021-04-05 at 8.55.37 PM.png

 

Oh and nice work @iv , plugging that formula in and generating the chart! That's very, very helpful!


So... digging further into the "magic numbers" in that formula:

 

-0.110 x FICO Auto Score 8 is the easy one: that scales the 900 score range to a 1-99 range. (Or 27.5-99, with the floor at 250).

Which matches the range of the FRI score... (and you'll note that it's explict that the better your FICO 8 score, the more the penalty increases.)

 

-1.728 x FRI is less obvious (...although it appears to be -sqrt(e*log(3)), I'm not sure if that's meaningful, or accidental?)

 

But the combination of the two (without the magic fudge factor of 132.329) gives a range of -100.728 at the 1/900 ("best/best") end of the range, to -198.572 at the 99/250 ("worst/worst") end.  Which is within rounding error of a 99-point spread, and likely part of the design.

 

With that in place for the best/best and worst/worst axis, the 1/250 ("best/worst") and 99/900 ("worst/best") axis ends up at -29.228 and -270.072 - which is a 2.4x wider spread.  Probably also intentional - having a wider spread on the "mismatched" axis seems to make sense.

 

"Raw" offset ranges (without +132.329 factor):

 250900
1-29.228-100.728
99-198.572-270.072

 

Now... those are all negative offsets (some fairly large!), and while they express the RANGE of variation FICO was aiming for, they don't hit the MAGNITUDE desired.  Thus the +132.329 fudge factor - to adjust the "zero point" (where the offset formula has no effect). This adjusts the ranges so that a 44/500, a 38/600, a 32/700, a 25/800, and 19/900 has no net negative (or positive) effect.

 

The spread remains the same as the "raw" numbers, but now at the high (FICO 8 Auto) score end, you have about 1/5 with a positive offset, and 4/5 with a negative, while at the low end you have a 60/40 positive/negative split.

 

"Adjusted" offset ranges (with +132.329 factor):

 250900
1103.10131.601
99-66.243-137.743

 

Based on all of that... anything worse than a 60 FRI is a negative across the board, regardless of score (with higher scores being penalized much more - the penalty gap between 250 and 900 is about 72 points).  Meanwhile, any FRI better than 20 is a positive across the board (with  lower scores getting boosted much more - same 72 point gap at the extremes).  Between 20/900 and 60/250, the "zero point" for FRI follows a fairly smooth line every 15-20 points (see the chart in the prior post).

EQ8:850 TU8:850 EX8:850
EQ9:847 TU9:847 EX9:839
EQ5:797 TU4:807 EX2:813 - 2021-06-06
Message 1001 of 1,094
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Sunday, April 4, 2021


@iv wrote:

@Anonymous wrote:

@iv wrote:

The concrete numbers provided are for EQ 8 Auto...

 

Screen Shot 2021-04-05 at 8.55.37 PM.png

 

Oh and nice work @iv , plugging that formula in and generating the chart! That's very, very helpful!


So... digging further into the "magic numbers" in that formula:

 

-0.110 x FICO Auto Score 8 is the easy one: that scales the 900 score range to a 1-99 range. (Or 27.5-99, with the floor at 250).

Which matches the range of the FRI score... (and you'll note that it's explict that the better your FICO 8 score, the more the penalty increases.)

 

-1.728 x FRI is less obvious (...although it appears to be -sqrt(e*log(3)), I'm not sure if that's meaningful, or accidental?)

 

But the combination of the two (without the magic fudge factor of 132.329) gives a range of -100.728 at the 1/900 ("best/best") end of the range, to -198.572 at the 99/250 ("worst/worst") end.  Which is within rounding error of a 99-point spread, and likely part of the design.

 

With that in place for the best/best and worst/worst axis, the 1/250 ("best/worst") and 99/900 ("worst/best") axis ends up at -29.228 and -270.072 - which is a 2.4x wider spread.  Probably also intentional - having a wider spread on the "mismatched" axis seems to make sense.

 

"Raw" offset ranges (without +132.329 factor):

 250900
1-29.228-100.728
99-198.572-270.072

 

Now... those are all negative offsets (some fairly large!), and while they express the RANGE of variation FICO was aiming for, they don't hit the MAGNITUDE desired.  Thus the +132.329 fudge factor - to adjust the "zero point" (where the offset formula has no effect). This adjusts the ranges so that a 44/500, a 38/600, a 32/700, a 25/800, and 19/900 has no net negative (or positive) effect.

 

The spread remains the same as the "raw" numbers, but now at the high (FICO 8 Auto) score end, you have about 1/5 with a positive offset, and 4/5 with a negative, while at the low end you have a 60/40 positive/negative split.

 

"Adjusted" offset ranges (with +132.329 factor):

 250900
1103.10131.601
99-66.243-137.743

 

Based on all of that... anything worse than a 60 FRI is a negative across the board, regardless of score (with higher scores being penalized much more - the penalty gap between 250 and 900 is about 72 points).  Meanwhile, any FRI better than 20 is a positive across the board (with  lower scores getting boosted much more - same 72 point gap at the extremes).  Between 20/900 and 60/250, the "zero point" for FRI follows a fairly smooth line every 15-20 points (see the chart in the prior post).


Really nice, @iv !

 

Now that I see the pattern in your chart combined with some sort of link to Euler's number, plus the scaling, I'm thinking there's a sigmoid function in all of this. I need to look at some plots in R.

 

They only gave us information about FICO Auto 8, so I can only speculate about the coefficients used for FICO 8 Classic. It's clear that a dividing line similar to the one you found will exist there.

Message 1002 of 1,094
iv
Valued Contributor

Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Sunday, April 4, 2021


@Anonymous wrote:

Now that I see the pattern in your chart combined with some sort of link to Euler's number, plus the scaling, I'm thinking there's a sigmoid function in all of this. I need to look at some plots in R.


Maybe? But I'm not sure about that - I haven't drawn any fancy graphs from this yet, but just eyeballing the numbers, it looks pretty linear...

 


@Anonymous wrote:

They only gave us information about FICO Auto 8, so I can only speculate about the coefficients used for FICO 8 Classic. It's clear that a dividing line similar to the one you found will exist there.


Yup. If I had to speculate on what the Classic variation for FRI looks like, I'd go with:

 

(-1.728 x FRI) + (-0.11647 x EQ 8 Classic) + 127

 

...or something very close to that.

(Chart the resulting numbers against the 300-850 range, and you'll see why.)

 

Important note for anyone who isn't just here to play with the math: unlike the formula from the FICO document discussed earlier, the one here is purely speculative. Don't use it for anything other than having fun with the current gedankenexperiment.

 

 

On a related note: just had the new $50k loan show up on the reports - and the FRI change was... nada. zlitch. zero. Still "52: Moderate", with exactly the same red flags as before. Disappointing! I figured it would move at least a little bit. (8/9 Classic unchanged, mortgage and some industry options wiggled slightly. Boring!)

 

EQ8:850 TU8:850 EX8:850
EQ9:847 TU9:847 EX9:839
EQ5:797 TU4:807 EX2:813 - 2021-06-06
Message 1003 of 1,094
Adkins
Legendary Contributor

Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Sunday, April 4, 2021

I pulled my 3B yesterday. Same score. 🤷 Balances are down across the board, but not enough yet evidently. 

So sensitive!!So sensitive!!

 

 


Last HP 08-07-2023



Message 1004 of 1,094
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Sunday, April 4, 2021


@Adkins wrote:

I pulled my 3B yesterday. Same score. 🤷 Balances are down across the board, but not enough yet evidently. 


@Adkins: I'll update the date on the board.

Message 1005 of 1,094
Anonymous
Not applicable

EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Thursday, April 8, 2021

eq_res_logo.png

 

EQ FICO Resilience Index

 

Leaderboard as of Thursday, April 8, 2021

Breaking News

 

@Adkins hangs on to the Golden Chalice and Golden Sword

with a recently updated score of 80!

 

@CreditAggie to 57 with that excellent Citi Costco Visa card!


@iv is back with a bang at 52, posting an excellent chart
that shows how much a FICO Auto 8 score can be adjusted
based on a certain Resilience Index score.
(This is the offset I mentioned in an earlier post, but the chart makes it so much clearer!)

 

General Information about this score

  • New score factor information from FICO dated December 2020.
  • Top 10 Questions About the FICO® Resilience Index  myFICO Blog Post
  • FICO issued a press release about this score and it triggered a flurry of articles in the press.
  • The Washington Post published an article about this 'new score'.
  • Plenty more articles on Google here.
  • Many article authors are wondering if/when consumers will be able to obtain their score. (lol)
  • The first score was submitted to this thread on March 29, 2020.
  • Podcast Interview: A VP of Scores at FICO talks about the new FICO Resilience Index.
  • My highlights from the interview above.

This Resilience Index score is included with a myFICO subscription. It will be shown on the dashboard.

 

And as always - lower rating (higher number) doesn't mean that person has a bad credit profile in any way.

This score is really sensitive to balance amounts and it doesn't matter if you have a 600 or 850.

 

RECORD HOLDER
& KEEPER OF
THE GOLDEN SWORD!

golden-sword.png

EQ FICO RESILIENCE INDEX

Adkins

80

04-06-2021

 

MEMBER NAME
* denotes former award winner
see bottom of post

SCORES

RED
FLAGS

HIGH
SCORE

DATE
Click for Individual Profile Data

RESILIENT [1-44]

GOLD KEY WINNERS

gold-key.png

juggernaut9*

32

0

32

03-03-2021

mrsgrits' DH

32

0

32

11-01-2020

LP007

34

0

34

12-21-2020

CreditBones

37

0

37

12-01-2020

Lulah*

37

0

37

07-24-2020

USDOD

37

0

37

12-26-2020

THE BAT

bat.png

tacpoly [EQ 8 850]

39

0

39

10-04-2020

JWD1980*

40

0

40

07-26-2020

LaHossBoss SO

40

0

40

02-26-2021

Throckmorton's Wife*

40

?

40

05-07-2020

Tonya-E

43

0

43

02-10-2021

MODERATE [45-59]

FiresOut

45

2

45

06-05-2020

LaHossBoss*

45

2

41

02-24-2021

PicoFico

45

2

45

04-30-2020

Bankrupt2019

46

2

46

12-29-2020

EW800

46

2

46

05-01-2020

sjt

47

2

47

01-06-2021

Thomas_Thumb

48

2

48

04-07-2020

jasonbourne84

49

2

49

10-08-2020

nwa479

49

2

49

03-24-2021

Trudy

49

2

49

06-12-2020

iv

52

2

52

04-05-2021

angelwingz

53

2

53

04-09-2020

CassieCard

53

2

53

03-11-2021

KLEXH25

53

2

53

07-26-2020

Credit4Growth

54

2

54

07-30-2020

Face_Value

54

2

54

10-17-2020

Flyingifr

56

2

56

07-21-2020

kilroy8

56

?

56

06-11-2020

mgood

56

2

55

03-28-2021

TMB_

56

2

56

06-01-2020

CreditAggie

57

2

56

04-05-2021

mrsgrits

57

2

57

11-06-2020

Mr_Mojo_Risin

58

2

54

04-03-2021

sarge12

58

2

58

03-09-2021

Chris865 [OP]

59

2

52

03-24-2021

SENSITIVE [60-69]

joeyv1985

60

2

56

03-13-2021

coreysw12

61

2

60

11-18-2020

CreditObsessedinFL

61

2

56

12-??-2020

NRB525

63

2

63

04-06-2020

Remedios

63

2

63

06-06-2020

Dogbert*

64

2

64

06-25-2020

OmarGB9

64

2

64

08-22-2020

SecretAzure

64

2

64

03-15-2021

Birdman7

65

2

60

02-20-2021

Revelate

65

2

63

06-14-2020

RehabbingANDBlabbing

66

2

66

03-29-2020

thornback

66

2

66

12-12-2020

CreditCuriosity*

68

3

68

02-22-2021

Dumbee

68

2

56

09-11-2020

jayk1

69

?

69

09-05-2020

VERY SENSITIVE [70-99]

K-in-Boston*

70

3

70

11-04-2020

Dmessina666*

72

3

72

12-30-2020

GApeachy

72

3

72

02-06-2021

jasonbourne84's DH

72

3

72

10-11-2020

Kenro*

72

?

72

05-03-2020

Brian_Earl_Spilner*

78

3

72

12-06-2020

GOLDEN CHALICE WINNER AND
KEEPER OF THE GOLDEN SWORD

golden-chalice.png

golden-sword.png

Adkins

80

3

80

04-06-2021

 

* FORMER AWARD WINNERS *

MEMBER NAME

AWARD

TROPHY

FOR

DATE
Click for Individual Profile Data

Brian_Earl_Spilner

GOLDEN CHALICE

golden-chalice.png

Lowest rating: 76

10-01-2020

Brian_Earl_Spilner

GOLDEN SWORD

golden-sword.png

Record Low Rating: 76

10-01-2020

CreditCuriosity

GOLDEN CHALICE

golden-chalice.png

Lowest rating: 75

09-23-2020

Dmessina666

GOLDEN CHALICE

golden-chalice.png

Lowest rating: 78

09-17-2020

Dmessina666

GOLDEN SWORD

golden-sword.png

Record Low Rating: 78

09-17-2020

Dogbert

GOLDEN CHALICE

golden-chalice.png

Lowest rating: 76

04-03-2020

Dogbert

GOLDEN SWORD

golden-sword.png

Record Low Rating: 76

04-03-2020

juggernaut9

GOLD KEY

gold-key.png

Highest Rating: 37

11-03-2020

JWD1980

GOLD KEY

gold-key.png

Highest Rating: 40

07-26-2020

K-in-Boston

GOLDEN CHALICE

golden-chalice.png

Lowest rating: 73

09-04-2020

Kenro

GOLDEN CHALICE

golden-chalice.png

Lowest rating: 72

05-03-2020

Kenro

GOLDEN SWORD

golden-sword.png

Record Low Rating: 72

05-03-2020

LaHossBoss

GOLD KEY

gold-key.png

Highest rating: 41

04-17-2020

Lulah

GOLD KEY

gold-key.png

Highest Rating: 37

07-24-2020

Throckmorton's Wife

GOLD KEY

gold-key.png

Highest Rating: 40

05-07-2020

 

All awards are from this game: Adventure (1980) (Atari 2600) Level 3 play through 

 

The Bat is awarded for best EQ 8 score with lowest Resilience Index score. The bat can fly away with any award - even a dragon!

 

Meet the creator of the Resilience Index.

Message 1006 of 1,094
Tonya-E
Established Contributor

Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Thursday, April 8, 2021

Slight change again this month. No major changes, just paying down SL. 9D422478-5789-42F3-94F4-46AC0664BC3E.jpeg

 

Wallet: Amex BCP-45k| Barclays Rewards MC-26.3k| Citi Thank You Preferred-27.5k| Citi Double Cash-14k| Target MC-11.5k| Walmart MC-7.5k| Chase Freedom Unlimited Signature-6k


Take the myFICO Fitness Challenge
Message 1007 of 1,094
Mr_Mojo_Risin
Senior Contributor

Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Thursday, April 8, 2021


@Tonya-E wrote:

Slight change again this month. No major changes, just paying down SL. 9D422478-5789-42F3-94F4-46AC0664BC3E.jpeg

 


42 is pretty solid! I'm trying to make my way there, keep fluctuating between 54-58. Pesky score! 😅

NFCU More Rewards 28K CL
NFCU Cash Rewards 16K CL
Citi Custom Cash 7.5K CL
AODFCU Visa Sig 5K CL
Discover IT 2.5K CL
Capital One QS 3600 CL
Message 1008 of 1,094
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Thursday, April 8, 2021


@Tonya-E wrote:

Slight change again this month. No major changes, just paying down SL. 9D422478-5789-42F3-94F4-46AC0664BC3E.jpeg

 


Got it, @Tonya-E ! I'll update the board after I use my monthly 3B later today and get a new Resilience score.

Message 1009 of 1,094
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes

I think Average Age of Revolving Accounts (AAoRA, yeah it's a thing alright) helped me this month with this score, because I can't explain it any other way. Unless my total credit limit being raised by $9,500 this month had something to do with it. Who knows how they segment this thing.

 

At 4-of-4 with $1807 in aggregate balance (6%), I had an EQ FRI of 56.

This time I'm at 4-of-4 with $1999 in aggregate balance (5%), and I get a EQ FRI of 54?(AAoRA = 1yr9mo, nothing else is a multiple of 3 either.)

 

April 2021 EQ FRI score.

Message 1010 of 1,094
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