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FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes

iv
Valued Contributor

Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Sunday, April 4, 2021


@CassieCard wrote:

@iv wrote:

The concrete numbers provided are for EQ 8 Auto...

 

Screen Shot 2021-04-05 at 8.55.37 PM.png

 

Oh and nice work @iv , plugging that formula in and generating the chart! That's very, very helpful!


So... digging further into the "magic numbers" in that formula:

 

-0.110 x FICO Auto Score 8 is the easy one: that scales the 900 score range to a 1-99 range. (Or 27.5-99, with the floor at 250).

Which matches the range of the FRI score... (and you'll note that it's explict that the better your FICO 8 score, the more the penalty increases.)

 

-1.728 x FRI is less obvious (...although it appears to be -sqrt(e*log(3)), I'm not sure if that's meaningful, or accidental?)

 

But the combination of the two (without the magic fudge factor of 132.329) gives a range of -100.728 at the 1/900 ("best/best") end of the range, to -198.572 at the 99/250 ("worst/worst") end.  Which is within rounding error of a 99-point spread, and likely part of the design.

 

With that in place for the best/best and worst/worst axis, the 1/250 ("best/worst") and 99/900 ("worst/best") axis ends up at -29.228 and -270.072 - which is a 2.4x wider spread.  Probably also intentional - having a wider spread on the "mismatched" axis seems to make sense.

 

"Raw" offset ranges (without +132.329 factor):

 250900
1-29.228-100.728
99-198.572-270.072

 

Now... those are all negative offsets (some fairly large!), and while they express the RANGE of variation FICO was aiming for, they don't hit the MAGNITUDE desired.  Thus the +132.329 fudge factor - to adjust the "zero point" (where the offset formula has no effect). This adjusts the ranges so that a 44/500, a 38/600, a 32/700, a 25/800, and 19/900 has no net negative (or positive) effect.

 

The spread remains the same as the "raw" numbers, but now at the high (FICO 8 Auto) score end, you have about 1/5 with a positive offset, and 4/5 with a negative, while at the low end you have a 60/40 positive/negative split.

 

"Adjusted" offset ranges (with +132.329 factor):

 250900
1103.10131.601
99-66.243-137.743

 

Based on all of that... anything worse than a 60 FRI is a negative across the board, regardless of score (with higher scores being penalized much more - the penalty gap between 250 and 900 is about 72 points).  Meanwhile, any FRI better than 20 is a positive across the board (with  lower scores getting boosted much more - same 72 point gap at the extremes).  Between 20/900 and 60/250, the "zero point" for FRI follows a fairly smooth line every 15-20 points (see the chart in the prior post).

EQ8:850 TU8:850 EX8:850
EQ9:850 TU9:850 EX9:850
EQ5:796 TU4:806 EX2:809 - 2021-04-06
Message 1001 of 1,029
CassieCard
Senior Contributor

Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Sunday, April 4, 2021


@iv wrote:

@CassieCard wrote:

@iv wrote:

The concrete numbers provided are for EQ 8 Auto...

 

Screen Shot 2021-04-05 at 8.55.37 PM.png

 

Oh and nice work @iv , plugging that formula in and generating the chart! That's very, very helpful!


So... digging further into the "magic numbers" in that formula:

 

-0.110 x FICO Auto Score 8 is the easy one: that scales the 900 score range to a 1-99 range. (Or 27.5-99, with the floor at 250).

Which matches the range of the FRI score... (and you'll note that it's explict that the better your FICO 8 score, the more the penalty increases.)

 

-1.728 x FRI is less obvious (...although it appears to be -sqrt(e*log(3)), I'm not sure if that's meaningful, or accidental?)

 

But the combination of the two (without the magic fudge factor of 132.329) gives a range of -100.728 at the 1/900 ("best/best") end of the range, to -198.572 at the 99/250 ("worst/worst") end.  Which is within rounding error of a 99-point spread, and likely part of the design.

 

With that in place for the best/best and worst/worst axis, the 1/250 ("best/worst") and 99/900 ("worst/best") axis ends up at -29.228 and -270.072 - which is a 2.4x wider spread.  Probably also intentional - having a wider spread on the "mismatched" axis seems to make sense.

 

"Raw" offset ranges (without +132.329 factor):

 250900
1-29.228-100.728
99-198.572-270.072

 

Now... those are all negative offsets (some fairly large!), and while they express the RANGE of variation FICO was aiming for, they don't hit the MAGNITUDE desired.  Thus the +132.329 fudge factor - to adjust the "zero point" (where the offset formula has no effect). This adjusts the ranges so that a 44/500, a 38/600, a 32/700, a 25/800, and 19/900 has no net negative (or positive) effect.

 

The spread remains the same as the "raw" numbers, but now at the high (FICO 8 Auto) score end, you have about 1/5 with a positive offset, and 4/5 with a negative, while at the low end you have a 60/40 positive/negative split.

 

"Adjusted" offset ranges (with +132.329 factor):

 250900
1103.10131.601
99-66.243-137.743

 

Based on all of that... anything worse than a 60 FRI is a negative across the board, regardless of score (with higher scores being penalized much more - the penalty gap between 250 and 900 is about 72 points).  Meanwhile, any FRI better than 20 is a positive across the board (with  lower scores getting boosted much more - same 72 point gap at the extremes).  Between 20/900 and 60/250, the "zero point" for FRI follows a fairly smooth line every 15-20 points (see the chart in the prior post).


Really nice, @iv !

 

Now that I see the pattern in your chart combined with some sort of link to Euler's number, plus the scaling, I'm thinking there's a sigmoid function in all of this. I need to look at some plots in R.

 

They only gave us information about FICO Auto 8, so I can only speculate about the coefficients used for FICO 8 Classic. It's clear that a dividing line similar to the one you found will exist there.

28 FICO Scores + FICO RESilience Index + 3 VS3. MTG (Mortgage), AUT (Auto), and BKC (Bankcard) are scores 5,4, and 2 from the top.

Keeper of the Scrolls of Resilience: EQ FICO Resilience Index Score Leaderboard (58 People!)

Message 1002 of 1,029
iv
Valued Contributor

Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Sunday, April 4, 2021


@CassieCard wrote:

Now that I see the pattern in your chart combined with some sort of link to Euler's number, plus the scaling, I'm thinking there's a sigmoid function in all of this. I need to look at some plots in R.


Maybe? But I'm not sure about that - I haven't drawn any fancy graphs from this yet, but just eyeballing the numbers, it looks pretty linear...

 


@CassieCard wrote:

They only gave us information about FICO Auto 8, so I can only speculate about the coefficients used for FICO 8 Classic. It's clear that a dividing line similar to the one you found will exist there.


Yup. If I had to speculate on what the Classic variation for FRI looks like, I'd go with:

 

(-1.728 x FRI) + (-0.11647 x EQ 8 Classic) + 127

 

...or something very close to that.

(Chart the resulting numbers against the 300-850 range, and you'll see why.)

 

Important note for anyone who isn't just here to play with the math: unlike the formula from the FICO document discussed earlier, the one here is purely speculative. Don't use it for anything other than having fun with the current gedankenexperiment.

 

 

On a related note: just had the new $50k loan show up on the reports - and the FRI change was... nada. zlitch. zero. Still "52: Moderate", with exactly the same red flags as before. Disappointing! I figured it would move at least a little bit. (8/9 Classic unchanged, mortgage and some industry options wiggled slightly. Boring!)

 

EQ8:850 TU8:850 EX8:850
EQ9:850 TU9:850 EX9:850
EQ5:796 TU4:806 EX2:809 - 2021-04-06
Message 1003 of 1,029
Adkins
Mega Contributor

Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Sunday, April 4, 2021

I pulled my 3B yesterday. Same score. 🤷 Balances are down across the board, but not enough yet evidently. 

So sensitive!!So sensitive!!

 

 

Last HP 09-14-2020



Message 1004 of 1,029
CassieCard
Senior Contributor

Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Sunday, April 4, 2021


@Adkins wrote:

I pulled my 3B yesterday. Same score. 🤷 Balances are down across the board, but not enough yet evidently. 


@Adkins: I'll update the date on the board.

28 FICO Scores + FICO RESilience Index + 3 VS3. MTG (Mortgage), AUT (Auto), and BKC (Bankcard) are scores 5,4, and 2 from the top.

Keeper of the Scrolls of Resilience: EQ FICO Resilience Index Score Leaderboard (58 People!)

Message 1005 of 1,029
CassieCard
Senior Contributor

EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Thursday, April 8, 2021

eq_res_logo.png

 

EQ FICO Resilience Index

 

Leaderboard as of Thursday, April 8, 2021

Breaking News

 

@Adkins hangs on to the Golden Chalice and Golden Sword

with a recently updated score of 80!

 

@CreditAggie to 57 with that excellent Citi Costco Visa card!


@iv is back with a bang at 52, posting an excellent chart
that shows how much a FICO Auto 8 score can be adjusted
based on a certain Resilience Index score.
(This is the offset I mentioned in an earlier post, but the chart makes it so much clearer!)

 

General Information about this score

  • New score factor information from FICO dated December 2020.
  • Top 10 Questions About the FICO® Resilience Index  myFICO Blog Post
  • FICO issued a press release about this score and it triggered a flurry of articles in the press.
  • The Washington Post published an article about this 'new score'.
  • Plenty more articles on Google here.
  • Many article authors are wondering if/when consumers will be able to obtain their score. (lol)
  • The first score was submitted to this thread on March 29, 2020.
  • Podcast Interview: A VP of Scores at FICO talks about the new FICO Resilience Index.
  • My highlights from the interview above.

This Resilience Index score is included with a myFICO subscription. It will be shown on the dashboard.

 

And as always - lower rating (higher number) doesn't mean that person has a bad credit profile in any way.

This score is really sensitive to balance amounts and it doesn't matter if you have a 600 or 850.

 

RECORD HOLDER
& KEEPER OF
THE GOLDEN SWORD!

golden-sword.png

EQ FICO RESILIENCE INDEX

Adkins

80

04-06-2021

 

MEMBER NAME
* denotes former award winner
see bottom of post

SCORES

RED
FLAGS

HIGH
SCORE

DATE
Click for Individual Profile Data

RESILIENT [1-44]

GOLD KEY WINNERS

gold-key.png

juggernaut9*

32

0

32

03-03-2021

mrsgrits' DH

32

0

32

11-01-2020

LP007

34

0

34

12-21-2020

CreditBones

37

0

37

12-01-2020

Lulah*

37

0

37

07-24-2020

USDOD

37

0

37

12-26-2020

THE BAT

bat.png

tacpoly [EQ 8 850]

39

0

39

10-04-2020

JWD1980*

40

0

40

07-26-2020

LaHossBoss SO

40

0

40

02-26-2021

Throckmorton's Wife*

40

?

40

05-07-2020

Tonya-E

43

0

43

02-10-2021

MODERATE [45-59]

FiresOut

45

2

45

06-05-2020

LaHossBoss*

45

2

41

02-24-2021

PicoFico

45

2

45

04-30-2020

Bankrupt2019

46

2

46

12-29-2020

EW800

46

2

46

05-01-2020

sjt

47

2

47

01-06-2021

Thomas_Thumb

48

2

48

04-07-2020

jasonbourne84

49

2

49

10-08-2020

nwa479

49

2

49

03-24-2021

Trudy

49

2

49

06-12-2020

iv

52

2

52

04-05-2021

angelwingz

53

2

53

04-09-2020

CassieCard

53

2

53

03-11-2021

KLEXH25

53

2

53

07-26-2020

Credit4Growth

54

2

54

07-30-2020

Face_Value

54

2

54

10-17-2020

Flyingifr

56

2

56

07-21-2020

kilroy8

56

?

56

06-11-2020

mgood

56

2

55

03-28-2021

TMB_

56

2

56

06-01-2020

CreditAggie

57

2

56

04-05-2021

mrsgrits

57

2

57

11-06-2020

Mr_Mojo_Risin

58

2

54

04-03-2021

sarge12

58

2

58

03-09-2021

Chris865 [OP]

59

2

52

03-24-2021

SENSITIVE [60-69]

joeyv1985

60

2

56

03-13-2021

coreysw12

61

2

60

11-18-2020

CreditObsessedinFL

61

2

56

12-??-2020

NRB525

63

2

63

04-06-2020

Remedios

63

2

63

06-06-2020

Dogbert*

64

2

64

06-25-2020

OmarGB9

64

2

64

08-22-2020

SecretAzure

64

2

64

03-15-2021

Birdman7

65

2

60

02-20-2021

Revelate

65

2

63

06-14-2020

RehabbingANDBlabbing

66

2

66

03-29-2020

thornback

66

2

66

12-12-2020

CreditCuriosity*

68

3

68

02-22-2021

Dumbee

68

2

56

09-11-2020

jayk1

69

?

69

09-05-2020

VERY SENSITIVE [70-99]

K-in-Boston*

70

3

70

11-04-2020

Dmessina666*

72

3

72

12-30-2020

GApeachy

72

3

72

02-06-2021

jasonbourne84's DH

72

3

72

10-11-2020

Kenro*

72

?

72

05-03-2020

Brian_Earl_Spilner*

78

3

72

12-06-2020

GOLDEN CHALICE WINNER AND
KEEPER OF THE GOLDEN SWORD

golden-chalice.png

golden-sword.png

Adkins

80

3

80

04-06-2021

 

* FORMER AWARD WINNERS *

MEMBER NAME

AWARD

TROPHY

FOR

DATE
Click for Individual Profile Data

Brian_Earl_Spilner

GOLDEN CHALICE

golden-chalice.png

Lowest rating: 76

10-01-2020

Brian_Earl_Spilner

GOLDEN SWORD

golden-sword.png

Record Low Rating: 76

10-01-2020

CreditCuriosity

GOLDEN CHALICE

golden-chalice.png

Lowest rating: 75

09-23-2020

Dmessina666

GOLDEN CHALICE

golden-chalice.png

Lowest rating: 78

09-17-2020

Dmessina666

GOLDEN SWORD

golden-sword.png

Record Low Rating: 78

09-17-2020

Dogbert

GOLDEN CHALICE

golden-chalice.png

Lowest rating: 76

04-03-2020

Dogbert

GOLDEN SWORD

golden-sword.png

Record Low Rating: 76

04-03-2020

juggernaut9

GOLD KEY

gold-key.png

Highest Rating: 37

11-03-2020

JWD1980

GOLD KEY

gold-key.png

Highest Rating: 40

07-26-2020

K-in-Boston

GOLDEN CHALICE

golden-chalice.png

Lowest rating: 73

09-04-2020

Kenro

GOLDEN CHALICE

golden-chalice.png

Lowest rating: 72

05-03-2020

Kenro

GOLDEN SWORD

golden-sword.png

Record Low Rating: 72

05-03-2020

LaHossBoss

GOLD KEY

gold-key.png

Highest rating: 41

04-17-2020

Lulah

GOLD KEY

gold-key.png

Highest Rating: 37

07-24-2020

Throckmorton's Wife

GOLD KEY

gold-key.png

Highest Rating: 40

05-07-2020

 

All awards are from this game: Adventure (1980) (Atari 2600) Level 3 play through 

 

The Bat is awarded for best EQ 8 score with lowest Resilience Index score. The bat can fly away with any award - even a dragon!

 

Meet the creator of the Resilience Index.

28 FICO Scores + FICO RESilience Index + 3 VS3. MTG (Mortgage), AUT (Auto), and BKC (Bankcard) are scores 5,4, and 2 from the top.

Keeper of the Scrolls of Resilience: EQ FICO Resilience Index Score Leaderboard (58 People!)

Message 1006 of 1,029
Tonya-E
Established Contributor

Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Thursday, April 8, 2021

Slight change again this month. No major changes, just paying down SL. 9D422478-5789-42F3-94F4-46AC0664BC3E.jpeg

 

Wallet: Amex BCP-39k| Barclays Rewards MC-26.3k| Citi Thank You Preferred-27.5k| Citi Double Cash-14k| Target MC-11k| Walmart MC-7.5k| Chase Freedom Unlimited Signature-6k


Take the myFICO Fitness Challenge
Message 1007 of 1,029
Mr_Mojo_Risin
Valued Contributor

Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Thursday, April 8, 2021


@Tonya-E wrote:

Slight change again this month. No major changes, just paying down SL. 9D422478-5789-42F3-94F4-46AC0664BC3E.jpeg

 


42 is pretty solid! I'm trying to make my way there, keep fluctuating between 54-58. Pesky score! 😅

NFCU More Rewards 24K CL
NFCU Cash Rewards 4000 CL
Discover IT 1,500 CL
Quicksilver 600 CL (formerly Platinum)
NFCU auto loan
*We survived it, now comes the progress*
Previously Bowiefan
Message 1008 of 1,029
CassieCard
Senior Contributor

Re: EQ FICO Resilience Index Leaderboard - Thursday, April 8, 2021


@Tonya-E wrote:

Slight change again this month. No major changes, just paying down SL. 9D422478-5789-42F3-94F4-46AC0664BC3E.jpeg

 


Got it, @Tonya-E ! I'll update the board after I use my monthly 3B later today and get a new Resilience score.

28 FICO Scores + FICO RESilience Index + 3 VS3. MTG (Mortgage), AUT (Auto), and BKC (Bankcard) are scores 5,4, and 2 from the top.

Keeper of the Scrolls of Resilience: EQ FICO Resilience Index Score Leaderboard (58 People!)

Message 1009 of 1,029
CassieCard
Senior Contributor

Re: FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes

I think Average Age of Revolving Accounts (AAoRA, yeah it's a thing alright) helped me this month with this score, because I can't explain it any other way. Unless my total credit limit being raised by $9,500 this month had something to do with it. Who knows how they segment this thing.

 

At 4-of-4 with $1807 in aggregate balance (6%), I had an EQ FRI of 56.

This time I'm at 4-of-4 with $1999 in aggregate balance (5%), and I get a EQ FRI of 54?(AAoRA = 1yr9mo, nothing else is a multiple of 3 either.)

 

April 2021 EQ FRI score.April 2021 EQ FRI score.

28 FICO Scores + FICO RESilience Index + 3 VS3. MTG (Mortgage), AUT (Auto), and BKC (Bankcard) are scores 5,4, and 2 from the top.

Keeper of the Scrolls of Resilience: EQ FICO Resilience Index Score Leaderboard (58 People!)

Message 1010 of 1,029
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