Lowered utilization and VantageScore dropped

[Anonymous]

First things first. Yes, I have searched the forums and found similar posts from several years ago but didn't want to resurrect a dead thread.  Also, I know this forum focuses on the FICO score and I'm asking about a VantageScore which is different (and I'm not supposed to worry about it).   

That said, and this is more of a curiosity than a crisis.   My total credit limit is about $301,700.  Three days ago my Equifax VantageScore was 764.  Today it's 751.  The only change was that I paid off the $15,332 balance on my Discover Card (77% of $20K limit to 0%).  This dropped my total utilization from $46,584 (15%) to $31252 (10%).  

I had been playing with the "score simulator" on CK and thought this big payoff would help!  But it turns out there's something odd about this utilization level that causes the score to plummet!   Here's what the score simulator says my score would be for the following balances:

36000 - 776

34000 - 743 (HUH?)

32000 - 750 (Closer to where I am)

30000 - 765 (under 10%)

28000 - 771

Seems that somewhere between 34700 (score 771) and 34500 (score 743) something wonky happens.

Anyone have any guesses why this might happen (both in the "simulator" and on CK)?  Could it be related to "Scoreboard Hopping" mentioned in this article?  "FICO uses something called “scorecard hopping,’’ which pools people with similar risks. If you are consistently late with payments, you might be placed on a scorecard with other late payers. By changing your habits and paying off bills every month, FICO could move you to a different scoreboard with a different pool of payers."

Might I have moved from the "best" of the 12%+ util group into the "worst" of the under 12% util group?

[frugal47374]

I'm not a Vantage-hater and I don't have the answer to your question.

I will occasionally run Vantage simulators when contemplating paying off or incurring large credit card debit.

But I have no confidence in the results.  At one point I discovered that increasing my debt by $1 would "result" in a 40 point improvement in my score.  That pretty much convinced me that the simulator program has some serious flaws, even if you don't hate Vantage scores themselves.

[Anonymous]

"increasing my debt by $1 would "result" in a 40 point improvement in my score." 

Found that point on the simulator for my current situation.  $34,544 is a 743 score. $34545 is 776.  33 point swing on a dollar more of debt.

Given that the actual (Equifax) score reflects what the (TransUnion) simulator says, I don't think it's a flaw in the simulator, that probably faithfully applies the math.  It's a flaw (or feature?) in the VantageScore model itself.   

[SoCalifornia]

The second half of your first paragraph pretty much sums everything up. And even still, those simulators are more garbage than the scores themselves.

[Anonymous]

I've always been of the opinion that all simulators are garbage.

[SoCalifornia]

https://youtu.be/Ig8laEOZpWI
See you later, simulator
Good morning and you're welcome.