Possible to predict your own credit score? What calculations can be used to get this done?

[RED_Knives]

I have predicted my credit score 3 times already and have been pretty close about 2-3 points off. And the real funny thing about it is, I did what people told me not to do and my score increased more than I was expecting. I figured that the community on here would be too afraid to try to increase there CL too fast. I guess they where wrong?

So my previous score was 669 with 2 credit cards and a util of 70%

that same month I aquired 2 new cards, paid off util to about 45% got denied 2 times for a CC and figured that all of these actions would actually keep my score the same or even reduce it.

I got a letter from target corp saying they denied due to high balances and lack of installment credit and high inquries, they also stated my score was 650?. But the interesting thing is my credit score is still rising. I went from 669 to 685, thats 16 points in a month. how did  I increase 16 points if I had to many inquries, had a high util and sitll no installment histroy? why is target saying my score is 650 but fico is saying I'm 685? different credit bureaus? 

I know that in general just by having the account an additional month my score should increase because the length of the account is increasing which is good. I also know that since I nearly doubled my credit line that thats also a good thing and would reflect in my score. but based on what every one told me online to do which was not apply for more than 2 cc a year(applied for 6 total) or else my score will be dinged and to keep balances ultra low at 10-35% util I havent done both of those things and I still went up 16 points can anyone explain this to me?

Shouldn't my score be lower than 669 not 685 I just can't seem to believe that because I increased util, added a month to my credit report and paid my bills a bit that my score went up so much, I just expected it to go down based on the supposed mistakes I made. Maybe my score would be 690 if I didn't have that many  inquiries?

[user5387]

In general it's not meaningful to compare scores from different sources, or based on different reports, or possibly calculated too many days apart from each other.

It is possible to predict your own credit score, if you have adequate knowledge of how scoring works.  A skilled person could probably do it to within 25 points or so.

[takeshi74]

As always: different scoring models, scores based on different report data, etc.  You need to be careful comparing scores to ensure that you're accounting for those factors.

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@RED_Knives wrote:

but based on what every one told me online to do which was not apply for more than 2 cc a year(applied for 6 total)

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"Do not apply for X in Y" is meaningless advice.  One person's credit could support X cards in Y while another's could not.  Just as one example, I added 8 accounts in 2013.  Another could receive denial after denial.  Another could also get 8 approvals but much less favorable terms.  Don't rely on broad generalizations like that.  Inquiries and AAoA are bigger issues for thinner credit profiles.  Even with 8 new accounts last year my TU FICO was 794 according to my latest Discover statement.

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@RED_Knives wrote:

I still went up 16 points can anyone explain this to me?

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You have to explain that.  What changed from point A to point B?  You mention a lot of changes but it's not clear what specifically changed on your reports from one point to the next.  We're just speculating without knowing the specifics and can only state that other factors (consider the usual suspects that play into credit scoring) outweighed the inquiries and AAoA.  Are you sure that the new accounts have reported?

Again, consider the usual factors and their weights.  If you added 2 new accounts then your available credit increased which decreases your utilization.  If you paid down your revolving balances then that also improved your utilization.  Utilization accounts for 35% of your FICO.  AAoA is 15%.  "New credit" is 10%.

http://www.myfico.com/crediteducation/whatsinyourscore.aspx

[RED_Knives]

yes good points. I'm thinking maybe the accounts haven't been reported yet, that maybe not enough time has passed.

say I purchased something on a card and my util was 95% for this card but the card has not yet posted its first payment. Would this be weighted on my credit report or my credit score? or is it only weighted after accounts have posted there first payment.

also isn't the credit report updated once a month? it could take some time before anyone will see this new purchase on this card?