Rates are a funny thing, I'm in the process of buying a house and have been watching mortgage rates daily for the last month in a half. They are very quick to rise just at the sheer mention of a possible good unemployment report (we all know how that turned out) or Greece's bailout but very, very slow to drop when the market tanks (but still drops)... and yes the stock market is a good indicator of where rates will be, so if you want to know if they are going up or down just watch the stock market. Unfortuenetly bad stock market means lower rates... The point being everything that effects the stock market, ie Caterpillar profit missed estimates which in turn effects new deal with Greece, Microsoft Sales fell for 4th Qtr, Joe Shmow says they are closer to a deal with the Debt Ceiling Agreement, albeit small will effect mortgages rates and .250% lower/higher is still .250% lower/higher - From what I've seen if there is no agreement made (which I agree with say592 it will be reached, the repercussions are too big) the rates will spike up considerably while the panic lasts and then plumit since it shows the instability of the economy and the Federal Reserve would be forced to lower rates.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/22/markets-stocks-idUSN1E76L0H220110722?feedType=RSS&feedName...
