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6% overall utilization --> 7 point bump

Super Contributor

Re: 6% overall utilization.


@SouthJamaica wrote:

@Thomas_Thumb wrote:

@SouthJamaica wrote:


The reason I was able to get clean data -- which is a challenge in my profile -- is that I just subscribed to a new Experian product which gives me daily updates of the report including updates of 4 scores: FICO 8, FICO 2, and an Auto and Bankcard score.  So it's clean data, but only applicable to EX. Several days later on my MyFICO dashboard there was a 6 point increase in TU FICO 8.  So it's possible that it was related, but impossible for me to have any degree of certainty about that one.

 

It didn't occur during the changeover of the month; it occurred earlier.


Please report before/after on all scores received. It is more insightful as various models behave differently. I find it useful to look at Shifts in Classic score compared to Auto and Bankcard. If all three shift the same way more than 5 points, that's a tell sign that some factor fundamental to the algorithm has crossed a threshold.

 

Because # cards with balances, aggregate utilization and individual card utilization (typically highest card UT%) all affect score, it is helpful to mention # cards reporting (say 6 of 20 for example) and highest card UT%. SJ, is all that information available to you on these reports?

 


Great questions @Thomas_Thumb I always learn from you.

 

1. First let me eliminate a few more of the usual suspects. There was no change in number of accounts with balances (stayed the same at 12 of 30); there was no instance of a >30% account dropping to <9%; it did not occur on a change of month, it occurred between the 23rd and the 24th, and there was no change to age of anything.  The only change was that one account reporting a 25% balance dropped to a 1% balance.

 

2. Now on to the 4 known EX scores:

 

Classic 8 +7

FICO 2  +-0

Auto 8 +9

Bankcard 8 +8

 

 

 

 

 

 


You went from more than 9% on one card to less than 9% on the same card. 

Overall utilization is not the driver of the score change, it is the one card crossing 9%, with authority and going to 1%. 

High Bal Jan 2009 $116k on $146k limits 80% Util.
Oct 2014 $46k on $127k 36% util EQ 722 TU 727 EX 727
April 2018 $18k on $344k 5% util EQ 806 TU 810 EX 812

Delta Reserve and CSP Jan 2018, no more 5/24 worries... unless new Chase Marriott/SPG replacement is enticing...meh, turns out not. [unless a 100k points SPG Luxury Upgrade appears... well lookie here...]
Message 21 of 72
Super Contributor

Re: 6% overall utilization.


@CreditGuyInDixie wrote:

It's worth pointing out that SouthJ has a gigantic total credit limit.  This means that we are talking about a huge dollar value compared to what many people might be thinking.  It's possible that the particular FICO model considers that in addition to the utilization percentage -- it's conceivable that by reducing his debt by several thousand dollars he crossed some scoring rubicon (one that looks purely at dollar value as a separate consideration).

 

If a few people with small credit limits could duplicate his finding that would of course rule that out.

 

PS.  I have myself received negative reason statements claiming that my revolving debt is too high when my total utilization is quite low as a percentage.  It's one of the many reasons I am open to the possibility that dollar value could be considered by some FICO models.


That went from $36,217 to $31,288.

 

Personally I don't think the dollar value counts; I think it's the percentages that count.


FICO8 EQ 755 TU 776 EX 746 Total revolving limits 643900 (533900 reporting)
Message 22 of 72
Super Contributor

Re: 6% overall utilization.


@BrutalBodyShots wrote:

That's a great point above regarding raw dollar value aside from just percentage.  SJ, for S&Gs can you quantify your before/after reported dollar amounts at the different percentages of utilization?  Perhaps there's an unknown dollar threshold that may somewhat reveal itself if you do this.

 

I actually think considering dollars here is actually a smart direction to think in.  I feel like this test likely already has been replicated many times by those with considerably smaller credit limits and it's not often you hear about a possible threshold around the point SJ is referencing. 


It went from $36,217 to $31,288.

 

But I don't really think the dollar amount counts.


FICO8 EQ 755 TU 776 EX 746 Total revolving limits 643900 (533900 reporting)
Message 23 of 72
Community Leader
Super Contributor

Re: 6% overall utilization.

I don't have an opinion either way.  What seems clear (for many reasons) is that it could count (on one or more models) and until well-designed tests are done (to test that specific hypothesis) by multiple people there's no reliable way to know.

Message 24 of 72
Super Contributor

Re: 6% overall utilization.

I can't measure TU with the same precision as I can measure EX, but I think it's possible that my TU FICO 8 is bouncing up and down 6 points as I go back and forth across 6% overall utilization.

 

It went down 6 points on MyFICO a couple of days after one account dropped from 25% to 1%, but went up 6 points on MyFICO a few days after another account jumped from 1.6% to 27% bringing overall utilization back over 6%.

 

If there's a hard dollar number involved here, I guess it would be 35,000. But I'm not feeling that.

 

 

 

 


FICO8 EQ 755 TU 776 EX 746 Total revolving limits 643900 (533900 reporting)
Message 25 of 72
Super Contributor

Re: 6% overall utilization.


@NRB525 wrote:


The details about what happened the last two weeks are not provided. The timing has no date sequence provided.  


I'm not sure why you're debating that.  SJ clearly stated that the score change happened before the month ended.  You then suggested that age of accounts factors on Dec 1 could have been at play.  I then referenced that the profile/score change happened before that could have been a factor, which SJ again reiterated.  The bottom line is that the age of accounts variable was eliminated early on here.

Message 26 of 72
Super Contributor

Re: 6% overall utilization.


@BrutalBodyShots wrote:

@NRB525 wrote:


The details about what happened the last two weeks are not provided. The timing has no date sequence provided.  


I'm not sure why you're debating that.  SJ clearly stated that the score change happened before the month ended.  You then suggested that age of accounts factors on Dec 1 could have been at play.  I then referenced that the profile/score change happened before that could have been a factor, which SJ again reiterated.  The bottom line is that the age of accounts variable was eliminated early on here.


And now the Slow Reveal lets us know one card is making huge swings in individual utilization. Incomplete data to start the thread, to speculate... Makes me wonder what else is missing.  

High Bal Jan 2009 $116k on $146k limits 80% Util.
Oct 2014 $46k on $127k 36% util EQ 722 TU 727 EX 727
April 2018 $18k on $344k 5% util EQ 806 TU 810 EX 812

Delta Reserve and CSP Jan 2018, no more 5/24 worries... unless new Chase Marriott/SPG replacement is enticing...meh, turns out not. [unless a 100k points SPG Luxury Upgrade appears... well lookie here...]
Message 27 of 72
Super Contributor

Re: 6% overall utilization.

For the third and final time I'll say it, utilization has nothing to do with age of accounts, which is something you were questioning early on after it was already answered that it couldn't have been a factor here.  You questioning other factors is just fine; It's not like early on SJ said that there wasn't an individual utilization threshold potentially crossed and then later revealed that there was. 

Message 28 of 72
Super Contributor

Re: 6% overall utilization.


@BrutalBodyShots wrote:

For the third and final time I'll say it, utilization has nothing to do with age of accounts, which is something you were questioning early on after it was already answered that it couldn't have been a factor here.  You questioning other factors is just fine; It's not like early on SJ said that there wasn't an individual utilization threshold potentially crossed and then later revealed that there was. 


Thank you.

 

 


FICO8 EQ 755 TU 776 EX 746 Total revolving limits 643900 (533900 reporting)
Message 29 of 72
Super Contributor

Re: 6% overall utilization.


@SouthJamaica wrote:


Seemed to be a 7 point bump in EX FICO 8
when overall utilization dropped from 6.88%
to 5.9%. Suggests to me that 6% overall utilization
might be a thing.


Here’s the original post. No mention during several rounds of questions how any individual card utilization changed.  

High Bal Jan 2009 $116k on $146k limits 80% Util.
Oct 2014 $46k on $127k 36% util EQ 722 TU 727 EX 727
April 2018 $18k on $344k 5% util EQ 806 TU 810 EX 812

Delta Reserve and CSP Jan 2018, no more 5/24 worries... unless new Chase Marriott/SPG replacement is enticing...meh, turns out not. [unless a 100k points SPG Luxury Upgrade appears... well lookie here...]
Message 30 of 72