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AAoRA threshold at 9 years???(Updated)

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Super Contributor

Re: AAoRA threshold at 9 years???

@Llewelyn By the way I apologise I got off-line last night and didn’t see your response til now.

 

Thank you very much this is about to be linked in the Primer! Great work, great find, great analysis!

 

And what I meant before was if it increased your credit limit to such a point that it caused your utilisation to drop below a threshold.

 

I'm pretty certain you're authorised user accounts are counting, so I don't think you have to do those extra calculations anymore, but as for the HELOC, I don't think it's counted in utilisation in score 8, but I'm not sure. I will investigate that even though I think there's some conflicting information. 

-Our Community’s updated scoring wisdom: Link to Scoring Primer.
-For Negative Reason Codes see: CassieCard’s Score Factors thread.
-ccquest’s workbook to calculate metrics for you: Link to Workbook.

Oct 2020 New Account Scorecard.Nov 2020, No New Account Scorecard (reassignment conflated with aging. EX9 not updated yet. Oldest/avg varies. Estimates above.)
Real world mortgage maxes are: EQ5-818, TU4-839, EX2-844.


RIP:
(Everything said is JMHO and is not endorsed by FICO or MF. I have no affiliation with either, just a grateful member.)
Message 11 of 30
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Regular Contributor

Re: AAoRA threshold at 9 years???


@dragontears wrote:

Just wanted to point out if she has no loans on her report it is impossible to say it is AAoRA and not AAOA......


If 9% is a threshold for AAoA,  also my  Ex F8 should have dropped (see my first post).

 

Also AAoA has been studied  extensively, and so I would think that a 9% threshold for AAoA would already be known.

Message 12 of 30
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Regular Contributor

Re: AAoRA threshold at 9 years???


@Tonya-E wrote:

There has to be something to this. My 850 score is with TU. It is the only one of the bureaus showing my AAOA at 9 years & 2 months. EQ & EX are a few months short. I did a simulator and it shows both EX & EQ being at 850 by Nov. which should put me at the 9 yr. mark for those. That is just with aging the accounts - nothing else. I literally just noticed this today when I was reviewing my reports. EQ and TU are nearly identical but there is 1 account discrepancy. I did a spreadsheet to take a look. EQ sits at 8 years 11 months. EX sits at 8 years 9 months


Lets us know what happens when you cross 9 years. What is your AAoRA?

Message 13 of 30
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Regular Contributor

Re: AAoRA threshold at 9 years???


@Birdman7 wrote:

 

I'm pretty certain you're authorised user accounts are counting, so I don't think you have to do those extra calculations anymore, but as for the HELOC, I don't think it's counted in utilisation in score 8, but I'm not sure. I will investigate that even though I think there's some conflicting information. 


I wrote a  spreadsheet which does all those calculations for me.  

 

I'm also think that  the authorized are not ignored, but the  Heloc is.  If my Ex F8  goes up in the next couple of days, I will have proof for both.

 

But  I want to be  100% sure that the AU's are not  ignored.  Sometime later I will start a new thread giving very strong evidence that Ex F8B (the bankcard version)  DOES ignore  the  AU's  when computing the percentage of accounts with balance. If my AU's  would be  ignored in general,  that wouldn't be so surprising.  

Message 14 of 30
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Super Contributor

Re: AAoRA threshold at 9 years???


@Llewelyn wrote:

@Birdman7 wrote:

 

I'm pretty certain you're authorised user accounts are counting, so I don't think you have to do those extra calculations anymore, but as for the HELOC, I don't think it's counted in utilisation in score 8, but I'm not sure. I will investigate that even though I think there's some conflicting information. 


I wrote a  spreadsheet which does all those calculations for me.  

 

I'm also think that  the authorized are not ignored, but the  Heloc is.  If my Ex F8  goes up in the next couple of days, I will have prove for both.

 

But  I want to be  100% sure that the AU's are not  ignored.  Sometime later I will start a new thread giving very strong evidence that Ex F8B (the bankcard version)  DOES ignore  the  AU's  when computing the percentage of accounts with balance. If my AU's  would be  ignored in general,  that wouldn't be so surprising.  


@Llewelyn I figured you had a spreadsheet, but I'm telling you they are not counting because if they were not, you would've experienced scorecard reassignment for the new revolver and lost 10 to 20 points, which you did not. That's pretty conclusive and explicit. Now, you know I'm sure they still count on the mortgage scores though full monty. 

I'll page @AimHigh , I'm pretty certain he can resolve the HELOC uncertainty. 

That is very interesting about BC8. Please page me when you do that thread, I look forward to reading it! 

-Our Community’s updated scoring wisdom: Link to Scoring Primer.
-For Negative Reason Codes see: CassieCard’s Score Factors thread.
-ccquest’s workbook to calculate metrics for you: Link to Workbook.

Oct 2020 New Account Scorecard.Nov 2020, No New Account Scorecard (reassignment conflated with aging. EX9 not updated yet. Oldest/avg varies. Estimates above.)
Real world mortgage maxes are: EQ5-818, TU4-839, EX2-844.


RIP:
(Everything said is JMHO and is not endorsed by FICO or MF. I have no affiliation with either, just a grateful member.)
Message 15 of 30
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Regular Contributor

Re: AAoRA threshold at 9 years???


@Birdman7 wrote:

 

 but I'm telling you they are not counting because if they were not, you would've experienced scorecard reassignment for the new revolver and lost 10 to 20 points, which you did not. That's pretty conclusive and explicit.


With all due respect, I do not except anybody's claims as the  absolute truth without checking out all the evidence  for those claims first.  At first glance and assuming that the AUs count,   me and my DW both changed scorecards  from not-New to New on 11/6/19.  My  Ex F8  did raise 12 points on the day, and my DW's did not change.  But I did not have time yet to  evaluate that  else happened on that day.  According to your primer the 10 to 20 points loss is only  an estimate. Predicting precisely what happens after a scorecard reassignment without a detailed analysis of the whole CR seems impossible to me. So please excuse me, if I do not except your statement as 100% proof that the AU's are not ignored.

Message 16 of 30
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Super Contributor

Re: AAoRA threshold at 9 years???


@Llewelyn wrote:

@Birdman7 wrote:

 

 but I'm telling you they are not counting because if they were not, you would've experienced scorecard reassignment for the new revolver and lost 10 to 20 points, which you did not. That's pretty conclusive and explicit.


With all due respect, I do not except anybody's claims as the truth without checking out all the evidence  for those claims first.  At first glance and assuming that the AUs count,   me and my DW both changed scorecards  from not-New to New on 11/6/19.  My  Ex F8  did raise 12 points on the day, and my DW's did not change.  But I did not have time yet to  evaluate that  else happened on that day.  According to your primer the 10 to 20 points loss is only  an estimate. Predicting precisely what happens after a scorecard reassignment without a detailed analysis of the whole CR seems impossible to me. So please excuse me, if I do not except your statement as 100% proof that the AU's are not ignored.


@Llewelyn I totally understand and you're a man after my own heart, I feel the same way! Good on you for wanting to ensure your information is correct. (But, I would note the authorised user test that you have to use to determine whether they are counting would also be relying on my word, unless you go through a whole lot to verify the test as well. 😉)


But, if you didn't have a revolver under 12 months of age, then when one reported you would've lost, yes 10 to 20 points, and we cannot give precise estimates because its scorecard dependent. Thin/young files are higher risk and the penalties are higher, etc...

You are correct that when scorecard reassignment occurs it re-evaluates the entire file and the results can be unpredictable. A detailed analysis of the profile in question is almost always required. However, there are a couple reassignments we are pretty certain in predicting the direction on Score 8:

 

If you get your first derogatory on a clean file, you're gonna be re-assigned to a dirty scorecard, and I can't imagine a case where the score would not decrease.

 

When a new revolver reports to a clean file and you don't have a revolver younger than 12 months of age, you're gonna have a score decrease. (The obverse is also true, when your youngest hits 12 months of age. The caveat to this is if it is one of your first 3 revolvers, there could be an exception.)

 

Obviously, if there are any additional changes, that could interfere and all bets are off. But in the absence of any other changes, those are the established effects. 

E.g., we know where the line is between young and aged, but you can't bet on which way the score goes because it depends on the profile. It's not a situation where there's always a move in a certain direction and it does require a detailed analysis, as you stated.

 

Is November 6, 2019 when the card reported to your credit reports? May I ask how many revolvers that made for you at that time? Because assuming you both had more than 3 revolvers, there should have been a decrease unless other factors are at play, as you alluded may be possible. 

 

-Our Community’s updated scoring wisdom: Link to Scoring Primer.
-For Negative Reason Codes see: CassieCard’s Score Factors thread.
-ccquest’s workbook to calculate metrics for you: Link to Workbook.

Oct 2020 New Account Scorecard.Nov 2020, No New Account Scorecard (reassignment conflated with aging. EX9 not updated yet. Oldest/avg varies. Estimates above.)
Real world mortgage maxes are: EQ5-818, TU4-839, EX2-844.


RIP:
(Everything said is JMHO and is not endorsed by FICO or MF. I have no affiliation with either, just a grateful member.)
Message 17 of 30
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Regular Contributor

Re: AAoRA threshold at 9 years???


@Birdman7 wrote:

 

I'm pretty certain you're authorised user accounts are counting, so I don't think you have to do those extra calculations anymore, but as for the HELOC, I don't think it's counted in utilisation in score 8, but I'm not sure. I will investigate that even though I think there's some conflicting information. 


Well, I just pulled my Ex CR:  Two changes  from the previous day:

 

  1. One  credit cards util decreased from 22.25% to 21.71%
  2.  One credit cards util  decreased from 36.37% to  35.93%

The Ag Util, counting the AU's and not counting the HELOC, decreased from 9.06% to 8.98%.

 

But Ex F8 did not change. Infact none of the Ex Ficos changed.

 

I'm sure that @Birdman7  will tell me that this means that the  HELOC  is not  excluded from my  Ex F8 Ag Util, but I'm not sure anymore what to believe.

 

 

 

Message 18 of 30
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Established Contributor

Re: AAoRA threshold at 9 years???


@Llewelyn wrote:

@Tonya-E wrote:

There has to be something to this. My 850 score is with TU. It is the only one of the bureaus showing my AAOA at 9 years & 2 months. EQ & EX are a few months short. I did a simulator and it shows both EX & EQ being at 850 by Nov. which should put me at the 9 yr. mark for those. That is just with aging the accounts - nothing else. I literally just noticed this today when I was reviewing my reports. EQ and TU are nearly identical but there is 1 account discrepancy. I did a spreadsheet to take a look. EQ sits at 8 years 11 months. EX sits at 8 years 9 months


Lets us know what happens when you cross 9 years. What is your AAoRA?


@Llewelyn @I definitely will. My most recent account will hit 1 year in December. So whatever happens should happen by Nov. If not, other factors could be at play.

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Message 19 of 30
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Regular Contributor

Re: AAoRA threshold at 9 years???

I'm now having some serious doubt that  9Y is a threshold for  AAoRA. I discovered a wrong entry in my spread sheet (the openig date of one of the  credit cards was off by two years).  This changed the AAoRA by only 0.8 months and actually everything I said in my first post is still correct with the new  numbers. But with the new numbers my DW's crossed the 9Y mark two more times and at those times  her  Ex F8 did not change.

 

Trying to rescue the situation,  I looked at the numbers with the HELOC included in the AAoRA calculation. Now my DW crossed  9Y only  one time, namely  on 5/24. But with  the HELOC inluded,  I cross  the 9Y mark once  and without a change in my Ex F8.

 

Not quite willing to give up yet, I remembered that  the DCU Visa card (and some other credit union cards) are sometimes ignored by Fico scoring. So I looked at the numbers one more time, namely with the HELOC included and the DCU Visa excluded.  Now my  DW's crosses  9Y only  on 5/24 and I never cross 9Y.  So  I cannot  complete rule out a 9Y AAoRA threshold,  but the evidence for it now looks rather weak.

So  @Birdman7 if you inserted a link to this thread in your primer, you should remove it.  

 

My DW's will cross 9Y again on Nov 1st.  I doubt her Ex F8 will change, but I'll let you know.

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