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EX 2 gains this morning

Ficoproblems247
Valued Contributor

EX 2 gains this morning

Today I woke up to some interesting gains on my EX 2s. They appear to be related to derogs as that is what has changed on my reason codes. On the reason codes from my three FICO 2 scores, the last reason on the list changed from "recently missed payment" to "seeking credit," and I saw 10-11 pt gains this morning. My most recent late is a 30D, which aged to 30 months this month. My most severe is a 60D, which aged to 39 months this month. I would assume its related to the 30D, and that my FICO 2s were affected by it hitting the 2.5 year mark. Due to 39 months for the 60D being such an odd number, I wouldn't assume it was that. No other gains on any other scoring models on EX, and I pulled a fresh 3B and saw no gains on EQ or TU score 8 either. I first thought it may be due to an aging factor, but AAoA went from 6.0yr-6.1yr, AoOA went from 13.4yr-13.5yr, both AoYA/AoYRA went from 10mo-11mo, so I don't think it's age related. 

 

EX FICO Score

Model

3/31

4/1

Change

Score 2

749

760

+11

AU 2

752

762

+10

BC 2

762

773

+11


FICO 8: June '21 EX 751 EQ 746 TU 744
Message 1 of 10
9 REPLIES 9
Birdman7
Super Contributor

Re: EX 2 gains this morning


@Ficoproblems247 wrote:

Today I woke up to some interesting gains on my EX 2s. They appear to be related to derogs as that is what has changed on my reason codes. On the reason codes from my three FICO 2 scores, the last reason on the list changed from "recently missed payment" to "seeking credit," and I saw 10-11 pt gains this morning. My most recent late is a 30D, which aged to 30 months this month. My most severe is a 60D, which aged to 39 months this month. I would assume its related to the 30D, and that my FICO 2s were affected by it hitting the 2.5 year mark. Due to 39 months for the 60D being such an odd number, I wouldn't assume it was that. No other gains on any other scoring models on EX, and I pulled a fresh 3B and saw no gains on EQ or TU score 8 either. I first thought it may be due to an aging factor, but AAoA went from 6.0yr-6.1yr, AoOA went from 13.4yr-13.5yr, both AoYA/AoYRA went from 10mo-11mo, so I don't think it's age related. 

 

EX FICO Score

Model

3/31

4/1

Change

Score 2

749

760

+11

AU 2

752

762

+10

BC 2

762

773

+11


@Ficoproblems247 very interesting. You don't have any public records right? 

-Scoring wisdom: General Scoring Primer, Payment History, Amount of Debt, Length of History/New Credit, Mix/Disputes/Freezes/Searches, Mortgage Scores/Negative Reason Codes/V.9, Helpful Links,
CassieCard’s Reason Statements Thread,
iv's friendly statement to reason statement concordance,

ccquest’s Workbook to calculate metrics.
Clean/Thick/Mature/No New Revolver - 8,9; Clean/Thick/Mature/No New Account - 5/4/2.
Correct Ag.Util. under 5% all times. (Oldest/avg varies. Estimates above.)
Real world mortgage maxes are: EQ5-818, TU4-839, EX2-844.




(Everything said is JMHO and is not endorsed by FICO or MF. I have no affiliation with either, just a grateful member.)
Message 2 of 10
Ficoproblems247
Valued Contributor

Re: EX 2 gains this morning

No public records or anything of that nature.  


FICO 8: June '21 EX 751 EQ 746 TU 744
Message 3 of 10
Birdman7
Super Contributor

Re: EX 2 gains this morning


@Ficoproblems247 wrote:

No public records or anything of that nature.  


@Ficoproblems247 So it appears there's a Threshold at 30 months on EX2 for recent missed payment, then, nice find! What scorecard would you be on the mortgage scores? Since you're serious derogatories over two years, you would be on a clean/thick/Mature?

-Scoring wisdom: General Scoring Primer, Payment History, Amount of Debt, Length of History/New Credit, Mix/Disputes/Freezes/Searches, Mortgage Scores/Negative Reason Codes/V.9, Helpful Links,
CassieCard’s Reason Statements Thread,
iv's friendly statement to reason statement concordance,

ccquest’s Workbook to calculate metrics.
Clean/Thick/Mature/No New Revolver - 8,9; Clean/Thick/Mature/No New Account - 5/4/2.
Correct Ag.Util. under 5% all times. (Oldest/avg varies. Estimates above.)
Real world mortgage maxes are: EQ5-818, TU4-839, EX2-844.




(Everything said is JMHO and is not endorsed by FICO or MF. I have no affiliation with either, just a grateful member.)
Message 4 of 10
Ficoproblems247
Valued Contributor

Re: EX 2 gains this morning

@Birdman7  Yes, should be clean/thick/mature. I

should see reassignment on 5/1 for losing new account penalty. I opened my most recent revolvers on 5/25/20, and 5/27/20. I don't think there is any possible chance that this happened a month early? Anyway I will keep a close eye on gains throughout my scores when that hits next month and see what that looks like. Next card app is coming up on 6/1 so I will not be able to bask in the no new accounts category for very long lol. 


FICO 8: June '21 EX 751 EQ 746 TU 744
Message 5 of 10
Birdman7
Super Contributor

Re: EX 2 gains this morning


@Ficoproblems247 wrote:

@Birdman7  Yes, should be clean/thick/mature. I

should see reassignment on 5/1 for losing new account penalty. I opened my most recent revolvers on 5/25/20, and 5/27/20. I don't think there is any possible chance that this happened a month early? Anyway I will keep a close eye on gains throughout my scores when that hits next month and see what that looks like. Next card app is coming up on 6/1 so I will not be able to bask in the no new accounts category for very long lol. 


@Ficoproblems247 Not on the mortgage scores. New Account Segmentation threshold there is unknown but at least 17 months. 

And you are in dirty cards on 8/9, so no reassignment there either. 

yeah algorithm treats opening dates as if they happened on the first it will see it as May 1. 

-Scoring wisdom: General Scoring Primer, Payment History, Amount of Debt, Length of History/New Credit, Mix/Disputes/Freezes/Searches, Mortgage Scores/Negative Reason Codes/V.9, Helpful Links,
CassieCard’s Reason Statements Thread,
iv's friendly statement to reason statement concordance,

ccquest’s Workbook to calculate metrics.
Clean/Thick/Mature/No New Revolver - 8,9; Clean/Thick/Mature/No New Account - 5/4/2.
Correct Ag.Util. under 5% all times. (Oldest/avg varies. Estimates above.)
Real world mortgage maxes are: EQ5-818, TU4-839, EX2-844.




(Everything said is JMHO and is not endorsed by FICO or MF. I have no affiliation with either, just a grateful member.)
Message 6 of 10
Revelate
Moderator Emeritus

Re: EX 2 gains this morning


@Birdman7 wrote:

@Ficoproblems247 wrote:

No public records or anything of that nature.  


@Ficoproblems247 So it appears there's a Threshold at 30 months on EX2 for recent missed payment, then, nice find! What scorecard would you be on the mortgage scores? Since you're serious derogatories over two years, you would be on a clean/thick/Mature?


Oooh careful with that statement.  A 60D may only count as a serious derogatory under 2 years for some models, but others like collection, BK, judgement, tax liens if these are ever a thing again, etc: full Monty for as long as they are on there you are relegated to bottom 4.  

Actually I suspect the breakpoint for a 90D is probably 5 years or so, a 120+ and likely CO probably full Monty.




        
Message 7 of 10
Birdman7
Super Contributor

Re: EX 2 gains this morning


@Revelate wrote:

@Birdman7 wrote:

@Ficoproblems247 wrote:

No public records or anything of that nature.  


@Ficoproblems247 So it appears there's a Threshold at 30 months on EX2 for recent missed payment, then, nice find! What scorecard would you be on the mortgage scores? Since you're serious derogatories over two years, you would be on a clean/thick/Mature?


Oooh careful with that statement.  A 60D may only count as a serious derogatory under 2 years for some models, but others like collection, BK, judgement, tax liens if these are ever a thing again, etc: full Monty for as long as they are on there you are relegated to bottom 4.  

Actually I suspect the breakpoint for a 90D is probably 5 years or so, a 120+ and likely CO probably full Monty.


@Revelate that's why I made sure there were no public records first: All those listed qualify as PRs. 

oh wow, so you think delinquencies are structured? I thought it was 60 and other delinquencies did that? good heads up, I got a check that out and watch it.

-Scoring wisdom: General Scoring Primer, Payment History, Amount of Debt, Length of History/New Credit, Mix/Disputes/Freezes/Searches, Mortgage Scores/Negative Reason Codes/V.9, Helpful Links,
CassieCard’s Reason Statements Thread,
iv's friendly statement to reason statement concordance,

ccquest’s Workbook to calculate metrics.
Clean/Thick/Mature/No New Revolver - 8,9; Clean/Thick/Mature/No New Account - 5/4/2.
Correct Ag.Util. under 5% all times. (Oldest/avg varies. Estimates above.)
Real world mortgage maxes are: EQ5-818, TU4-839, EX2-844.




(Everything said is JMHO and is not endorsed by FICO or MF. I have no affiliation with either, just a grateful member.)
Message 8 of 10
Revelate
Moderator Emeritus

Re: EX 2 gains this morning


@Birdman7 wrote:

@Revelate wrote:

@Birdman7 wrote:

@Ficoproblems247 wrote:

No public records or anything of that nature.  


@Ficoproblems247 So it appears there's a Threshold at 30 months on EX2 for recent missed payment, then, nice find! What scorecard would you be on the mortgage scores? Since you're serious derogatories over two years, you would be on a clean/thick/Mature?


Oooh careful with that statement.  A 60D may only count as a serious derogatory under 2 years for some models, but others like collection, BK, judgement, tax liens if these are ever a thing again, etc: full Monty for as long as they are on there you are relegated to bottom 4.  

Actually I suspect the breakpoint for a 90D is probably 5 years or so, a 120+ and likely CO probably full Monty.


@Revelate that's why I made sure there were no public records first: All those listed qualify as PRs. 

oh wow, so you think delinquencies are structured? I thought it was 60 and other delinquencies did that? good heads up, I got a check that out and watch it.


I may be misrembering but I thought they triggered the same reason code: PR and serious deliquency = derogatory.

 

Yeah it's the only rational way I can fit the data.

 

We know a 30D late starts as minor delinquency.  Also that a 60D can switch to minor delinquency at the 2 year mark on some models certainly.  Heck I gave direct data for both from my own file.

 

I never had a 90D or worse though but we got a single datapoint I know a while back where an individual with a 90D near exclusion had a 792 or thereabouts.  We mostly figured it was crap at the time and maybe it was discounted, but knowing what we know now, I think it is entirely possible if not likely that FICO may have done exactly that and it might be a good datapoint.  I didn't see it but the last time I brought up that point I think SJ mentioned there was another datapoint around a 780 too, and I don't know that it's possible to break 760 and certainly not 770 for FICO 8 in the bottom 4 scorecards, and I mean godlike files that go straight to 850 with room to spare once the collection or BK or whatever came off didn't get more than 756 or so.  F9 changes that but I digress, 760 may be the new 800 on that model for old derogs maybe higher as my file wasn't gold plated back then and isn't worth an 850 now even.

 

If they do it for a 60D, why not others?

 

The question really is where is the breakpoint, to get that we would need someone watching scores and with a 90D late explicitly.  We know CO is full Monty, I suspect a 120D+ is too but that is just theorizing.  

There was a great 800 to foreclosure thread from 4-5 years ago, I wonder what his file looks like now but ultimately we knew that scores improved over time to a point, putting people into a different scorecard based on age of derogatory makes total sense and I think there is an age boundary in the bottom 4 for segmentation too, the only weird thing is the seeming switch from bottom 4 to top 8 (well I think) for some categories.




        
Message 9 of 10
Birdman7
Super Contributor

Re: EX 2 gains this morning


@Revelate wrote:

@Birdman7 wrote:

@Revelate wrote:

@Birdman7 wrote:

@Ficoproblems247 wrote:

No public records or anything of that nature.  


@Ficoproblems247 So it appears there's a Threshold at 30 months on EX2 for recent missed payment, then, nice find! What scorecard would you be on the mortgage scores? Since you're serious derogatories over two years, you would be on a clean/thick/Mature?


Oooh careful with that statement.  A 60D may only count as a serious derogatory under 2 years for some models, but others like collection, BK, judgement, tax liens if these are ever a thing again, etc: full Monty for as long as they are on there you are relegated to bottom 4.  

Actually I suspect the breakpoint for a 90D is probably 5 years or so, a 120+ and likely CO probably full Monty.


@Revelate that's why I made sure there were no public records first: All those listed qualify as PRs. 

oh wow, so you think delinquencies are structured? I thought it was 60 and other delinquencies did that? good heads up, I got a check that out and watch it.


I may be misrembering but I thought they triggered the same reason code: PR and serious deliquency = derogatory.

 

Yeah it's the only rational way I can fit the data.

 

We know a 30D late starts as minor delinquency.  Also that a 60D can switch to minor delinquency at the 2 year mark on some models certainly.  Heck I gave direct data for both from my own file.

 

I never had a 90D or worse though but we got a single datapoint I know a while back where an individual with a 90D near exclusion had a 792 or thereabouts.  We mostly figured it was crap at the time and maybe it was discounted, but knowing what we know now, I think it is entirely possible if not likely that FICO may have done exactly that and it might be a good datapoint.  I didn't see it but the last time I brought up that point I think SJ mentioned there was another datapoint around a 780 too, and I don't know that it's possible to break 760 and certainly not 770 for FICO 8 in the bottom 4 scorecards, and I mean godlike files that go straight to 850 with room to spare once the collection or BK or whatever came off didn't get more than 756 or so.  F9 changes that but I digress, 760 may be the new 800 on that model for old derogs maybe higher as my file wasn't gold plated back then and isn't worth an 850 now even.

 

If they do it for a 60D, why not others?

 

The question really is where is the breakpoint, to get that we would need someone watching scores and with a 90D late explicitly.  We know CO is full Monty, I suspect a 120D+ is too but that is just theorizing.  

There was a great 800 to foreclosure thread from 4-5 years ago, I wonder what his file looks like now but ultimately we knew that scores improved over time to a point, putting people into a different scorecard based on age of derogatory makes total sense and I think there is an age boundary in the bottom 4 for segmentation too, the only weird thing is the seeming switch from bottom 4 to top 8 (well I think) for some categories.


@Revelate it makes sense. I just assumed it was all delinquencys. I guess we need to do some testing and find out. And the prediction window is 24 months, so that makes sense as well.

 

i've got that thread somewhere that you referenced, and ...  I think it's linked in post seven of the primer, the thread where you can get like 800 I think with a 90 day late, so I wouldn't rule out 90s. can't remember what version that was & I'm on the go at the moment but..

-Scoring wisdom: General Scoring Primer, Payment History, Amount of Debt, Length of History/New Credit, Mix/Disputes/Freezes/Searches, Mortgage Scores/Negative Reason Codes/V.9, Helpful Links,
CassieCard’s Reason Statements Thread,
iv's friendly statement to reason statement concordance,

ccquest’s Workbook to calculate metrics.
Clean/Thick/Mature/No New Revolver - 8,9; Clean/Thick/Mature/No New Account - 5/4/2.
Correct Ag.Util. under 5% all times. (Oldest/avg varies. Estimates above.)
Real world mortgage maxes are: EQ5-818, TU4-839, EX2-844.




(Everything said is JMHO and is not endorsed by FICO or MF. I have no affiliation with either, just a grateful member.)
Message 10 of 10
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