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It'll likely be within 100 points of your FICO. I know it's frustrating not to get your EX FICO, but my PLUS scores have been as much as 50-75 off when compared to FICO on the same day. Right now mine is over 60 off, or at least compared to a week or two ago based off my last SW alert in comparing that and my EQ PLUS.
It's been both.
I've been paying on time and reducing my credit utilization so hopefully the increases that I'm seeing are true to a degree. Ex FAKO 542 (4/4) - Ex FAKO 574 (4/21). Will enroll in myfico score watch soon for more accurate scores...
IME, most of my FAKOs were lower than my actual FICO when compared the same day. Not always. I've had FAKOs decrease 40+ and FICO unphased. Definitely a crap shoot. IMO, focus on the reports more than the scores and the score increase will follow. Certainly pulling FICOs frequently comes in handy when wanting to learn about FICO scoring, but the end game is always higher scores and better looking reports.