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General Scoring Primer and Version 8 Master Thread, pub.5.17.20

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Frequent Contributor

Re: General Scoring Primer and Version 8 Master Thread rev.5.17.20


@Birdman7 wrote:
@THEKid2 Thank you! I am actually updating it now based on some info I just learned researching your situation. Occasionally you should probably scroll thru the first 8 posts and see if there is a recent update made and if so, read it again.

I'm far from flawless and am trying my best to correct any errors and add additional info.

Oh, I plan to keep reading this and following the links. It's great stuff. I am really curious to see if my question of if how many old derogs matter. Like if there's 1 CO or 20 COs all the same age, is there a breakpoint in there where the amount actually matters? I'm dirty with 1 anyway.

 

Message 41 of 233
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Valued Member

Re: General Scoring Primer and Version 8 Master Thread rev.5.17.20

I'm always learning when I log on to this site, but this thread is like getting dropped into a master class. Thank you to everyone involved with putting this together! Stellar work.

 

Can we get this pinned?

Message 42 of 233
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Moderator

Re: General Scoring Primer and Version 8 Master Thread rev.5.17.20

This is absolutely great work.  Thank you everyone involved for putting in the time and effort.

 

One thing that I can definitely offer when it comes to AAoA is there appeared to be a breakpoint on my own profile about two or three years ago that was easy for me to reproduce since I was constantly getting new accounts at the time.

 

I would have been in a clean scorecard with recently opened revolving accounts.  If I opened a new card and my AAoA fell below exactly 7 years, I would lose 10-20 points when opening a new account.  If it remained over 7 years, I would see no loss at all or very minimal changes when opening a new revolving account.

 

I am not sure if that was due to rebucketing due to AAoA being below 7 years or if my particular bucket has a penalty imposed at 7 years but it was definitely real and the points would always come back as soon as another month or two had passed and AAoA was back at 7 years.  That happened a number of times so it was definitely repeatable.

 

Because of the size of my file, a new account will generally only take a matter of weeks off of my average age and I'd have to open MANY new accounts to dip below 7 years again, but hopefully that helps.

Message 43 of 233
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Valued Contributor

Re: General Scoring Primer and Version 8 Master Thread, rev.5.17.20

@Birdman7: Post #10 updated with an HTML table listing 38 reason statements with codes across EQ/TU/EX. 

 

Balance/percent/time tracking noted in remarks.

27 FICO Scores + 3 VS3. MTG (Mortgage), AUT (Auto), and BKC (Bankcard) are scores 5,4, and 2 from the top.

Keeper of the Scrolls of ResilienceEQ FICO Resilience Index Score Leaderboard

46 forum members have shared this new credit score. Share yours today!

Message 44 of 233
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Super Contributor

Re: General Scoring Primer and Version 8 Master Thread, rev.5.17.20

@TheKid2 I look forward to following your situation and I hope we learn more so that we can add that to the primer. 

@okgoogle Thank you for the kind words.

 

@CassieCard Thank you, those are wonderful additions, as always! The reason code addition is terrific! And thank you again for all your continued help with this thread! It wouldn't be possible without you!

 

@K-in-Boston Thank you for the kind words.

 

AAOA is a scoring factor not a segmentation factor and should play no role in scorecard assignment, so no worries there.

 

With that said, 10 - 15 points is typical when moving in and out of a new account scorecard. When your youngest revolver turns 12 months of age +10-15; when a new revolver reports and you don't have one under 12 months of age -10-15.

 

So the questions become: did you have a revolver(s) under 12 months of age when your new revolvers reported and you lost points? And when you received your points back, did it coincide with your youngest revolver turning 12 months?

 

If the answer is yes to the first question, then it has to be an AAOA threshold (assuming no other aging coincidences), as there is no new account penalty when you already have a revolver under 12 months of age. This would make sense since AAOA thresholds are believed to be on the years and it's believed to top out at 7 years 8 months. Would also make sense to have a big award for the last or penultimate award. (Even though it's rare the algorithm makes sense, lol.)

If the answer to the first question is no and the answer to the second question is yes, then it was probably scorecard reassignment in and out of a new account scorecard. 


Please advise and if it's not possible that it was a new account reassignment penalty, I will add it to the primer as a believed threshold. Now that I think about it, I believe I confirmed one at 6 years a while back too that should be added. I'll have to go double check when I get time.

For a collection of our current FICO scoring wisdom, updated as we learn, read the following. Watch the revision dates on the bottom of the first 8 posts as they are regularly updated: Link to Scoring Primer.


RIP:

Oldest/average age varies by bureau. Estimates above.


Updated Oct 2020, unless otherwise noted.

(Forgive typos, mobile.)(Everything said is Just IMHO.)

In order to better answer your questions and record your DPs, please provide your profile stats: Any baddies? Severity and recency? (clean/dirty), Number of accounts, both open and closed on CRs (thick/thin), AoOA? (Mature/young), AOYRA-Age of Youngest Revolving Account (new accounts/no new accounts)? Open/closed loan on CR?
For example, mine is clean/thick/mature/new account, with open loan on record.
If you don't know where you fall, just detail any baddies, your number of open and closed accounts, AoOA, AOYRA and whether you have a loan on record to start.

For utilization questions, list individual and aggregate utilizations, revolving and installment, please.
Message 45 of 233
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Super Contributor

Re: General Scoring Primer and Version 8 Master Thread, rev.5.17.20

@K-in-Boston As a matter fact, that's exactly how I found the previous AAOA threshold I found and forgot about.

 

Getting new cards, bringing myself below the threshold and then aging out of it and then doing it again. I did it several times as well. And you said you did it several times, so it can't be reassignment, otherwise it wouldn't of happened at 7 years each time, instead it would coincide with the 12 months of age on the revolver.

 

That would make 6 years and 7 years for AAOA thresholds, but wow that's a huge gain for an AAOA threshold. I would've never thought it was worth that many points!

For a collection of our current FICO scoring wisdom, updated as we learn, read the following. Watch the revision dates on the bottom of the first 8 posts as they are regularly updated: Link to Scoring Primer.


RIP:

Oldest/average age varies by bureau. Estimates above.


Updated Oct 2020, unless otherwise noted.

(Forgive typos, mobile.)(Everything said is Just IMHO.)

In order to better answer your questions and record your DPs, please provide your profile stats: Any baddies? Severity and recency? (clean/dirty), Number of accounts, both open and closed on CRs (thick/thin), AoOA? (Mature/young), AOYRA-Age of Youngest Revolving Account (new accounts/no new accounts)? Open/closed loan on CR?
For example, mine is clean/thick/mature/new account, with open loan on record.
If you don't know where you fall, just detail any baddies, your number of open and closed accounts, AoOA, AOYRA and whether you have a loan on record to start.

For utilization questions, list individual and aggregate utilizations, revolving and installment, please.
Message 46 of 233
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Moderator

Re: General Scoring Primer and Version 8 Master Thread, rev.5.17.20


@Birdman7 wrote:

 

 

@K-in-Boston Thank you for the kind words.

 

AAOA is a scoring factor not a segmentation factor and should play no role in scorecard assignment, so no worries there.

 

If that is the case, then this a scoring factor.

 

With that said, 10 - 15 points is typical when moving in and out of a new account scorecard. When your youngest revolver turns 12 months of age +10-15; when a new revolver reports and you don't have one under 12 months of age -10-15.

 

So the questions become: did you have a revolver(s) under 12 months of age when your new revolvers reported and you lost points? And when you received your points back, did it coincide with your youngest revolver turning 12 months?

 

Yes to the first question.  Numerous accounts under 12 months (several of which were later closed and merged into other existing accounts).  I created the gardening club recycling bin as a poke at my inability to make it 3 months without a new account at the time.  No on the second question.  I have not had a youngest revolving account under 12 months since June 2015 when my Kohl's card turned a year old.  That lasted until December 2015 when I found these forums, then myFICO Effect.  My two most recently opened revolving accounts prior to Kohl's in 2014 were in 2012 (Amazon) and 2007 (Chase Freedom, or whatever the card was called then).

 

If the answer is yes to the first question, then it has to be an AAOA threshold (assuming no other aging coincidences), as there is no new account penalty when you already have a revolver under 12 months of age. This would make sense since AAOA thresholds are believed to be on the years and it's believed to top out at 7 years 8 months. Would also make sense to have a big award for the last or penultimate award. (Even though it's rare the algorithm makes sense, lol.)

While there may have been the occasional card turning 2 years old, the dips always happened when AAoA fell below 7 years and point gains would be had when AAoA reached 7 years.  If I managed to wait 2 or 3 months between accounts and AAoA would fall from say 7 years 2 months to 7 years 1 month there was no scoring penalty or only a very minor one when a new revolving account would report.  I definitely believe that in my scorecard, there is a 7 year threshold.

 

My current AAoA is 8y2m to 9y1m.  Equifax is lower due to several AU accounts (some as early as 1994) that began to randomly disappear and reappear from time to time over the past few years.  Interestingly, there were two times about a year ago when all 8 of them disappeared and I got a decent score jump on Equifax.  All of my own 90s accounts have aged off of my credit reports, so AoOA went from 25 down to 18 years last year (on EQ alone), which makes me think there may be a different clean scorecard for AoOA somewhere between 18 and 25 years as there were no other real changes and everything else other than EQ's disappearing AU accounts is mostly the same between all 3 bureaus (a handful of accounts that only appear on 1 or 2 CRAs).  (25+ is often listed as the ideal for age of credit history on monitoring sites, so that's quite possible.) It was just odd since I would have expected a decrease in score not an increase.  So my risk was lower for someone with only 18 years left on their reports than when compared to others with 25 years.

 

If the answer to the first question is no and the answer to the second question is yes, then it was probably scorecard reassignment in and out of a new account scorecard. 

 

N/A


Please advise and if it's not possible that it was a new account reassignment penalty, I will add it to the primer as a believed threshold. Now that I think about it, I believe I confirmed one at 6 years a while back too that should be added. I'll have to go double check when I get time.


 

Message 47 of 233
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Super Contributor

Re: General Scoring Primer and Version 8 Master Thread, rev.5.17.20

@K-in-Boston sounds pretty conclusive to me and you repeated it and re-confirmed it. Thank you for the data point, I will add it.

 

As for AoOA, it is a segmentation factor. However no one knows for sure where the threshold is. There have been thoughts that it is as low as 3.5 years as well as up to 25 years, as you state. Unfortunately I can't give an answer on that.

 

I do have a question though. Were all AU accounts reported at zero when they disappeared? And the reason I ask is if so, it could've been the reversal of the a AU AZ penalty.

 

Edit: For S and G, do you know what your AAORA was before and after those weird score changes?

For a collection of our current FICO scoring wisdom, updated as we learn, read the following. Watch the revision dates on the bottom of the first 8 posts as they are regularly updated: Link to Scoring Primer.


RIP:

Oldest/average age varies by bureau. Estimates above.


Updated Oct 2020, unless otherwise noted.

(Forgive typos, mobile.)(Everything said is Just IMHO.)

In order to better answer your questions and record your DPs, please provide your profile stats: Any baddies? Severity and recency? (clean/dirty), Number of accounts, both open and closed on CRs (thick/thin), AoOA? (Mature/young), AOYRA-Age of Youngest Revolving Account (new accounts/no new accounts)? Open/closed loan on CR?
For example, mine is clean/thick/mature/new account, with open loan on record.
If you don't know where you fall, just detail any baddies, your number of open and closed accounts, AoOA, AOYRA and whether you have a loan on record to start.

For utilization questions, list individual and aggregate utilizations, revolving and installment, please.
Message 48 of 233
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Valued Contributor

Re: General Scoring Primer and Version 8 Master Thread, rev.5.17.20

Is AoOA a scoring factor?

 

Evidence for Yes:

1) Tom Quinn, Vice President of FICO Scores at FICO, in an interview with Rob Berger @ doughroller.net (Link to page with MP3 audio file):

  • (21:50 Length of credit history question)
  • (22:35 Answer from Tom Quinn) "....as your average time on file increases you start to get more points....as your age of oldest trade becomes older you start to get  points for that.....it's more of a gradual scaling of that point assignment versus a hard cut...."

Evidence for No:

  • FILL IN THE BLANK....I'm not sure what the evidence is for this. A FICO PDF?

 

Side note: This is the interview where he says there are 14 scorecards.

(24:20) "How many different scorecards are there?" (24:25) Answer: "There are 14 scorecards within the FICO system."

27 FICO Scores + 3 VS3. MTG (Mortgage), AUT (Auto), and BKC (Bankcard) are scores 5,4, and 2 from the top.

Keeper of the Scrolls of ResilienceEQ FICO Resilience Index Score Leaderboard

46 forum members have shared this new credit score. Share yours today!

Message 49 of 233
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Super Contributor

Re: General Scoring Primer and Version 8 Master Thread, rev.5.17.20

First, for the benefit of everyone reading, when he spoke of there being 14 scorecards that's because originally there were 14, until the battle about authorized user accounts.

 

It's my understanding at that time they withdrew those 2 and that's why there are only 12 for score 8.

 

And in my opinion, what he said is clearly that AAoA is a scoring factor because you get points as you go along gradually.

 

He obscurely references AoOA regarding getting more points and you do. After subsequent AoOA scorecard segmentation, you continue a gradual gain for AAoA, most likely at a different signal strength though. (Assuming you're not past the maximum.)

 

But as for evidence that AoOA is a segmentation factor, all you have to do is listen a little further, where he speaks of the four factors for clean segmentation and the order in which they are considered beginning @24:40. 

He states the presence of delinquency is the first step which is clean/dirty. He states the second step is depth of credit which is how many accounts you have. The third step is the age of your profile AoOA. The last he labels credit activity which is whether or not you've gotten a new revolver in the last 12 months. 

Also important to notice, he does speak of oldest and averages and then he mentions categories. He is referring to the fact that revolving and installment ages are looked at separately, as an average and as oldest, IMHO. 

Last, yes there are fico documents that indicate age of oldest account is a segmentation factor. I would have to dig for those and look for those, but maybe @Thomas_Thumb could help us out on that, as we know he is the expert on that. And quite honestly most of my knowledge of scorecards come from reading his posts. 

And thank you to @CassieCard , I think that audio is a terrific addition to the thread. It is a great listen for everyone. 

I did catch something listening this time I missed before. There could actually be differing thresholds depending on whether the profile is thin/thick, it appears from his language, even though it's not conclusive.

For a collection of our current FICO scoring wisdom, updated as we learn, read the following. Watch the revision dates on the bottom of the first 8 posts as they are regularly updated: Link to Scoring Primer.


RIP:

Oldest/average age varies by bureau. Estimates above.


Updated Oct 2020, unless otherwise noted.

(Forgive typos, mobile.)(Everything said is Just IMHO.)

In order to better answer your questions and record your DPs, please provide your profile stats: Any baddies? Severity and recency? (clean/dirty), Number of accounts, both open and closed on CRs (thick/thin), AoOA? (Mature/young), AOYRA-Age of Youngest Revolving Account (new accounts/no new accounts)? Open/closed loan on CR?
For example, mine is clean/thick/mature/new account, with open loan on record.
If you don't know where you fall, just detail any baddies, your number of open and closed accounts, AoOA, AOYRA and whether you have a loan on record to start.

For utilization questions, list individual and aggregate utilizations, revolving and installment, please.
Message 50 of 233
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