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How does MyFICO Simulator get it SO WRONG? Not even the right direction!

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How does MyFICO Simulator get it SO WRONG? Not even the right direction!

I used the MyFICO simulator to see what could happen to my scores if I paid off a past-due/charged-off item. It was gonna cost me $2,300, and I'm trying to buy a house right now, so money is tight, and it was only going to be worth it if I could get my Transunion mortgage score up. Okay, so the sim only looks at FICO 8, I know, but if it predicts a positive movement (increase), then there's a shot at improving the mortgage FICO at least. So the sim shows my Transunion FICO 8 will increase by 10 points if I pay off the derogatory. I painstakingly scrounge up $2,300 and blow it all on the derogatory (mind you, I could have used that to pay points on a crappy interest rate, which I'm bound to get if I can't get the stupid Transunion mortgage score up to 620).

 

Well guess what the flying flippity f***! THE SCORE DECREASED THREE POINTS! Man, I knew going in that it might not exactly be a 10-point increase, but I at least expected some effing directional consistency! Not only did the score not increase--it DECREASED. 

 

Dude, this simulator is from FICO--the one who actually makes the stupid models in the first place! You'd think they'd at least be directionally consistent!

 

I'm pissed. I blew $2,300 on something that DECREASED the ONE score I needed to improve (it improved Experian and Equifax--riddle me that), and now I don't even have that $2,300 to pay points to bring down the crappy rate I'm probably gonna get. Not to mention paying for this stupid, useless MyFICO subscription that has literally dug me in deeper thanks to SHODDY sim prediction.

 

Dude, it's all aribtrary anyway. History is not a predictor of future performance! These computer-produced numbers fail to consider any human data, such as life circumstances and changes (i.e. getting married, going through a divorce, getting hurt on the job, etc.). Just because I came back from the middle east (serving my country) with PTSD and physical injuries that prevent me from working the way I want to, and thanks to the VA's crappy and SLOW response to disability claims, and thanks to a subsequent divorce and depression, my credit tanked between 2013 and 2016. But now I'm re-married and doing a lot better--finally got my disability approved (after having to appeal) and now I am managing to work part time (albeit at minimum wage). My wife is all over staying on top of finances and keeps me in line, and her credit is fantastic, so she really knows what she's doing. My habits are now linked to hers, so they are much better. Plus she watches everything like a hawk. But of course FICO isn't gonna consider ANY of that. Like, once you're down, good luck picking yourself back up--especially if you suffer from depression. All you're gonna do is look at that score and think you'll never be able to make it better so what's the effing point.

 

Especially when you try so hard to make something RIGHT by paying off a debt (plus a crap-ton of interest) and then your score DROPS. Thanks, FICO, for ABSOLUTELY FREAKING NOTHING. 

Message 1 of 18
17 REPLIES 17
Super Contributor

Re: How does MyFICO Simulator get it SO WRONG? Not even the right direction!

Hey bud!  So happy to hear about your marriage and the fact that you've got a great woman in your life.  Not only someone good for you at helping manage money and credit, but also somebody who obviously loves you to pieces.

 

You are right that simulators are (sadly) terrible at predicting what will happen to your score -- especially (as you realize) when you use a simulator for one model to make guesses as to what will happen in another.  Overwhelmingly the best way any person can get good advice on what to do (given a specific credit report, financial situation, scores, and upcoming goals) is to create a dedictated thread here and work with the folks on the forum.  Even here you might get conflicting advice at first so it is a good idea to allow the discussion thread to continue over many days until a consensus is reached (and you have gotten several people to chime in).

 

Don't hesitate to let us know if you'd like to do that and we'll be glad to do that, though of course we can't help with any actions that have already been taken.

 

Many thanks for your selfless service and our deepest sympathy for the suffering you experienced trying to keep the rest of us safe.

Message 2 of 18
Frequent Contributor

Re: How does MyFICO Simulator get it SO WRONG? Not even the right direction!

In my experience, those simulators don't seem to actually use your credit information at all.  They seem to just assume if you do this in a general manner then this will happen. 

 

For example, all my negatives fall off my reports this year and the FICO simulator is unable to simulate that.  If I simulate letting my reports age 2 months pased when all the negatives come off (2 chargeoffs and a collection), I only get 1 to 2 points.  And yet when I got the collection to be deleted off one of my reports early recently, I got a 30 point boost.  Also, last fall, when I simulated adding an auto loan, it showed it hurting me slightly.  Instead I got a another 15-20 point boost when I actually got the loan.  Given I had no installment loans at the time, the simulation should have realized the positives of adding the loan would outweigh the negatives, but it clearly didn't consider my credit profile at all.

Current FICO8: EQ:777, TU:754, EX:761 | 2x 30 day lates 4.5-6yrs ago
AAoA: 10 years; AAoOA: 13 months; Credit Length: 21 years
INQ Eq: 3 / Tu: 5 (4 for auto) / Ex: 9 (5 for auto)
Message 3 of 18
Valued Member

Re: How does MyFICO Simulator get it SO WRONG? Not even the right direction!

From what I understand, simply paying off a collection never increases your score, and the decrease you see in your score is probably from the collection showing recent activity - and the activity is, you paid it. Smiley Wink So, it's like you refreshed the collection last reporting date.

I have read time and time again - contact the collection agencies in writing and see if you can negotiate a "Pay for delete" with them. Don't admit it's your debt. Just say you'll pay if off if they agree to delete it. Simply paying a collection really accomplishes nothing!

If they won't work with you on the pay for delete, bug the crap out of the bureaus with disputes. Eventually they will remove it.

Goal: Pay off all the sub prime cards I opened and get my utilization down.
Scores 10/02/18: TU 638, EX 601, EQ 605
Scores 10/16/18: TU 671, EX 637, EQ 638
Scores 11/01/18: TU 682, EX 651, EQ 647
Trying to get into the 700s club, I hear they have the best margaritas
Message 4 of 18
Valued Contributor

Re: How does MyFICO Simulator get it SO WRONG? Not even the right direction!

First, thanks for your service. Second...simulators are useless. Third...mortgages are not approved on scores alone, and if the lender saw a balance unpaid on the derogeratory, they could and likely would require you to pay it for approval. After I married in 1994, and applied for a mortgage in 1995, I had to pay my then wifes(divorced) bad debts that showed on her credit report. So most likely, you did not pay that for nothing, and could make the difference in approval. Mortgage lenders do not just go by the scores supplied, they pull a 3B report and look at the whole credit report for problems, such as debts that could result in future judgements or collection efforts. If you are close you might want to use a mortgage broker who will pull your 3B and tell you exactly what you need to clean up for approval.

TU fico08=823 08/29/19
EX fico08=813 09/12/19
EQ fico08=826 09/04/19
EX fico09=815 09/04/19
EQ fico bankcard08=852 08/27/19
Message 5 of 18
New Visitor

Re: How does MyFICO Simulator get it SO WRONG? Not even the right direction!

Well same situation here they make it seem your score will increase yet to mislead you into maintaining the subscription even credit karma sucks too you have to understand these companies don't care about the consumer they just want the monthly payment.
Message 6 of 18
Valued Contributor

Re: How does MyFICO Simulator get it SO WRONG? Not even the right direction!


@Mossyoak4life wrote:
Well same situation here they make it seem your score will increase yet to mislead you into maintaining the subscription even credit karma sucks too you have to understand these companies don't care about the consumer they just want the monthly payment.

BUT

 

The good people here DO CARE and will help you, where the simulator will not.

If you are trying to increase score or planning a mortgage etc...

Make a new topic, post your goals & stats and the folks here will help council & advise you through it.




Message 7 of 18
Highlighted
New Visitor

Re: How does MyFICO Simulator get it SO WRONG? Not even the right direction!

So a reply to my comment is that the good people of myfic can help where the simulator won t! Well let's see sounds like a ploy to buy something else. How about the good people at myfic produce a simulator based on the actual info you use to create the scores. How about that, your company sells a product which frankly doesnt do anything that you can get for free second your misleading consumers by having a simulator based on your recommendations to improve the consumers credit and in turn doesn't do anything and then you offer your help and for what worthless worthless worthless
Message 8 of 18
Established Contributor

Really: How does MyFICO Simulator get it SO WRONG? Not even the right direction!

If I had to guess I would say the simulator is intentionally limited. I don't believe it to be some kind of conspiracy to screw any of us though. If the simulator gave identical results to FICO someone could potentially use that information to reverse engineer the formula.
Anyway keep in mind FICO is a product designed for banks and other lenders not for the consumer. The only reason we even access to this information is because of legislation.
Message 9 of 18
Valued Contributor

Re: How does MyFICO Simulator get it SO WRONG? Not even the right direction!


@Mossyoak4life wrote:
So a reply to my comment is that the good people of myfic can help where the simulator won t! Well let's see sounds like a ploy to buy something else. How about the good people at myfic produce a simulator based on the actual info you use to create the scores. How about that, your company sells a product which frankly doesnt do anything that you can get for free second your misleading consumers by having a simulator based on your recommendations to improve the consumers credit and in turn doesn't do anything and then you offer your help and for what worthless worthless worthless

There really are no simulators that are accurate and far too many variables to program one that would be accurate enough to rely upon. 

 

I am not selling anything nor are the (yes) GOOD people of this My Fico forum, compensated by the actual My Fico business.

I am explaining the people here, on this board, are just regular folks that have been helped in the past and are now helping other people to improve their credit.

 

The advice is FREE, I promise.. 

 

 




Message 10 of 18
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