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Just a quick data point on a change in my profile's aggregate installment utilization percentage.
Decrease in aggregate installment utilization percentage from 82% to 36% caused EX FICO 8 to increase by 11 points. EX FICO 2 was unchanged.
Regrettably the 46% size of the swing makes it impossible to discern where the break points were in between.
(PS It appears to have been a clear day -- i.e. no other perceived changes, positive or negative, to muddy the waters)
SJ - Thanks for the data point.
I assume you made a substantial payment on one of your loans. How many months of payment history do you have on that loan and what is the length of the loan? Also, what are lengths and months of payment history on your other loans.
I recall a threshold in the 65% to 70% range based on data presented by Inverse and Captool back in 2016. Inverse had 2 open mortgages and two auto loans. I can't recall what Captool had.
P.S. Other poster data also suggests that Fico 8 responds more strongly to significant changes in installment B/L than the older EX Fico 98 model or the older Fico 04 model used by TU and EQ for mortgage scores.
@Thomas_Thumb wrote:SJ - Thanks for the data point.
I assume you made a substantial payment on one of your loans.
Yes it was a substantial payment. 11,000 + towards a 25,000 loan. There were also
a couple of smaller payments which were not reported until the other day. So I guess you could say
it was a 12,000 payment.
How many months of payment history do you have on that loan
3-4 months
and what is the length of the loan?
36 months
Also, what are lengths and months of payment history on your other loans.
The only other loan is my NFCU reindeer games SSL loan, a 60 month loan with 18 months under the bridge.
I recall a threshold in the 65% to 70% range based on data presented by Inverse and Captool back in 2016. Inverse had 2 open mortgages and two auto loans. I can't recall what Captool had.
I would not be surprised.
P.S. Other poster data also suggests that Fico 8 responds more strongly to significant changes in installment B/L than the older EX Fico 98 model or the older Fico 04 model used by TU and EQ for mortgage scores.
That has absolutely been the case for me at every turn. @Revelate had reported slight responses in his EX FICO 2 and no movement in EQ FICO 5 and TU FICO 4. My experience has been slightly different; I have consistently experienced slight movement in TU FICO 4 [by slight I would say about 20% of the signal strength of FICO 8 moves] and no movement in EQ or EX.
I'm sitting at 69.8% currently with no change in any score on Experian.
It'd take another 11K or so to walk it below 66% before the new mortgage reports but since construction may be delayed it might happen.
Of course throwing excess money at the auto loan with the current market where cash or investments will be clutch than a loan I can refi down to 2.25%. Or testing whether I can push ahead MUFG loans reindeer game style, though 3 payments might get me clear below 69% to rule out rounding though Cassie thoroughly debunked that on revolving utilization. Admittedly Occam's Razor suggests if it isn't at 70% it's 66/67% depending how they rounded 2/3.
Annoyed not going to get to the datapoint we haven't yet nailed down yet but ultimately finances take precedence.
Thanks for the DP. I'm currently trying to figure out how to increase my Fico Auto 8 and Fico Auto 9. My perfect payment auto history is not making huge gains (specifically EQ).
@gen_zod wrote:Thanks for the DP. I'm currently trying to figure out how to increase my Fico Auto 8 and Fico Auto 9. My perfect payment auto history is not making huge gains (specifically EQ).
My experience is that perfect payment history doesn't improve your score over time. Either you have it or you don't. If you have it, great. If you move from imperfect to perfect, that will improve your scores. But you're not going to get more points from continuing to be perfect.
In my experience the best way to improve FICO 8 and FICO 9 scores, including auto scores, is:
1. Keep revolving utilization as low as possible (but have at least one account report some small balance)
2. Get aggregate installment utilization to 9% or less (but not zero)
3. Make no new credit applications
One would think that auto loan performance is a big factor in auto scores, but I have not found that to be the case.
@SouthJamaica wrote:
@gen_zod wrote:Thanks for the DP. I'm currently trying to figure out how to increase my Fico Auto 8 and Fico Auto 9. My perfect payment auto history is not making huge gains (specifically EQ).
My experience is that perfect payment history doesn't improve your score over time. Either you have it or you don't. If you have it, great. If you move from imperfect to perfect, that will improve your scores. But you're not going to get more points from continuing to be perfect.
In my experience the best way to improve FICO 8 and FICO 9 scores, including auto scores, is:
1. Keep revolving utilization as low as possible (but have at least one account report some small balance)
2. Get aggregate installment utilization to 9% or less (but not zero)
3. Make no new credit applications
One would think that auto loan performance is a big factor in auto scores, but I have not found that to be the case.
Of course it matters
Is the reason my score isn't 850 even with a clean sheet, and why Cassie is non-trivially lower than I am. Aggregate payment history (to be clear, time since open without deliquency / derogatory in aggregate for all tradelines) does matter.
There is explicitly a "no recent auto loan activity" in the AU industry options but I agree it's probably not a huge score thing, 20ish points which /shrug. Auto loans are stupid easy to get underwritten anyway, this is the last score I worry about.
@Revelate wrote:
@SouthJamaica wrote:
@gen_zod wrote:Thanks for the DP. I'm currently trying to figure out how to increase my Fico Auto 8 and Fico Auto 9. My perfect payment auto history is not making huge gains (specifically EQ).
My experience is that perfect payment history doesn't improve your score over time. Either you have it or you don't. If you have it, great. If you move from imperfect to perfect, that will improve your scores. But you're not going to get more points from continuing to be perfect.
In my experience the best way to improve FICO 8 and FICO 9 scores, including auto scores, is:
1. Keep revolving utilization as low as possible (but have at least one account report some small balance)
2. Get aggregate installment utilization to 9% or less (but not zero)
3. Make no new credit applications
One would think that auto loan performance is a big factor in auto scores, but I have not found that to be the case.
Of course it matters
Is the reason my score isn't 850 even with a clean sheet, and why Cassie is non-trivially lower than I am. Aggregate payment history (to be clear, time since open without deliquency / derogatory in aggregate for all tradelines) does matter.
There is explicitly a "no recent auto loan activity" in the AU industry options but I agree it's probably not a huge score thing, 20ish points which /shrug. Auto loans are stupid easy to get underwritten anyway, this is the last score I worry about.
Let's say A and B each have an AoOA of 15 years, and an AAoA of 8 years.
All other things in their reports are equal except that B had 5 negatives 7 years ago which have aged off, while A had none.
Is it your position that A would have a higher FICO score than B because he has a longer history of perfect payments?
@SouthJamaica wrote:
@Revelate wrote:
@SouthJamaica wrote:
@gen_zod wrote:Thanks for the DP. I'm currently trying to figure out how to increase my Fico Auto 8 and Fico Auto 9. My perfect payment auto history is not making huge gains (specifically EQ).
My experience is that perfect payment history doesn't improve your score over time. Either you have it or you don't. If you have it, great. If you move from imperfect to perfect, that will improve your scores. But you're not going to get more points from continuing to be perfect.
In my experience the best way to improve FICO 8 and FICO 9 scores, including auto scores, is:
1. Keep revolving utilization as low as possible (but have at least one account report some small balance)
2. Get aggregate installment utilization to 9% or less (but not zero)
3. Make no new credit applications
One would think that auto loan performance is a big factor in auto scores, but I have not found that to be the case.
Of course it matters
Is the reason my score isn't 850 even with a clean sheet, and why Cassie is non-trivially lower than I am. Aggregate payment history (to be clear, time since open without deliquency / derogatory in aggregate for all tradelines) does matter.
There is explicitly a "no recent auto loan activity" in the AU industry options but I agree it's probably not a huge score thing, 20ish points which /shrug. Auto loans are stupid easy to get underwritten anyway, this is the last score I worry about.
Let's say A and B each have an AoOA of 15 years, and an AAoA of 8 years.
All other things in their reports are equal except that B had 5 negatives 7 years ago which have aged off, while A had none.
Is it your position that A would have a higher FICO score than B because he has a longer history of perfect payments?
A may have a higher score if they are an aging breakpoint beyond B.
That said an optimized file can get to 850 at 8 years so the analysis breaks down.
@Revelate wrote:
@SouthJamaica wrote:
@Revelate wrote:
@SouthJamaica wrote:
@gen_zod wrote:Thanks for the DP. I'm currently trying to figure out how to increase my Fico Auto 8 and Fico Auto 9. My perfect payment auto history is not making huge gains (specifically EQ).
My experience is that perfect payment history doesn't improve your score over time. Either you have it or you don't. If you have it, great. If you move from imperfect to perfect, that will improve your scores. But you're not going to get more points from continuing to be perfect.
In my experience the best way to improve FICO 8 and FICO 9 scores, including auto scores, is:
1. Keep revolving utilization as low as possible (but have at least one account report some small balance)
2. Get aggregate installment utilization to 9% or less (but not zero)
3. Make no new credit applications
One would think that auto loan performance is a big factor in auto scores, but I have not found that to be the case.
Of course it matters
Is the reason my score isn't 850 even with a clean sheet, and why Cassie is non-trivially lower than I am. Aggregate payment history (to be clear, time since open without deliquency / derogatory in aggregate for all tradelines) does matter.
There is explicitly a "no recent auto loan activity" in the AU industry options but I agree it's probably not a huge score thing, 20ish points which /shrug. Auto loans are stupid easy to get underwritten anyway, this is the last score I worry about.
Let's say A and B each have an AoOA of 15 years, and an AAoA of 8 years.
All other things in their reports are equal except that B had 5 negatives 7 years ago which have aged off, while A had none.
Is it your position that A would have a higher FICO score than B because he has a longer history of perfect payments?
A may have a higher score if they are an aging breakpoint beyond B.
That said an optimized file can get to 850 at 8 years so the analysis breaks down.
In the example I gave their aging factors were all identical. The only difference in the profiles was that one had a 7 year perfect record while the other had a 15 year perfect record, but that fact did not show up in the reports because the negatives had all aged off.
You know that their scores would be equal.
Once your profile is clean, it's clean.