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Oldest account hits 3 yrs scores drops up to 22 points

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Drwaz99
Established Contributor

Re: Oldest account hits 3 yrs scores drops up to 22 points

Just an update as I was able to re-up my EX CW trial: EQ and TU took much larger hits. (still, nothing has changed on my profile except AoOA turning 3 yrs)

EQ: 765 (down 21)
TU:  760 (down 16)

Only negative item listed on all 3 CRA is "short account history".

Message 41 of 159
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Oldest account hits 3 yrs scores drops up to 22 points


@atarvuzdar wrote:

If there is scorecard segmentation @ 3 yrs for AooA, something to consider with regard to Dr's negative remaining the same even though there was an 8 point drop in score is that a short account history would probably be more of a negative on a more mature scorecard than a younger one. A younger scorecard segment would pretty much expect that someone has a short account history. With Dr's otherwise clean report it's not surprising that it would be the only negative even if it didn't have much of an impact. A scorecard segment for folks with older AooA would not treat a short account history so kindly.


Here's some strong supporting evidence that you're right about that:

  • 2 open credit cards, 1 closed installment loan
  • Short revolving history comes back strong at AoOA 2yrs after disappearing for 6 months.
  • High Revolving Balances shows up, but the balances are exactly the same as the NOV report (shown in signature).

 

 

 

 

EX FICO 2 HISTORICAL

 

AoOA

AoYA

SCORE FACTORS

 

JAN

1yr 1mo

1mo

Short credit history, Short revolving history, Too many accounts with balances, Recently opened too many new credit accounts

727

FEB

1yr 2mo

2mo

Short credit history, Short revolving history, Too many accounts with balances, Recently opened too many new credit accounts

721

MAR

1yr 3mo

3mo

Short credit history, Short revolving history, Too many accounts with balances, Recently opened too many new credit accounts

721

APR

1yr 4mo

4mo

Short credit history, Short revolving history, Too many accounts with balances, Recently opened too many new credit accounts

721

MAY

1yr 5mo

5mo

Short credit history, Short revolving history, Too many accounts with balances, Recently opened too many new credit accounts

721

JUN

1yr 6mo

6mo

Short credit history, Too many accounts with balances, Seeking credit, Recently opened too many new credit accounts

733

JUL

1yr 7mo

7mo

Short credit history, Too many accounts with balances, Seeking credit, Recently opened too many new credit accounts

739

AUG

1yr 8mo

8mo

Short credit history, Too many accounts with balances, Seeking credit, Recently opened too many new credit accounts

739

SEP

1yr 9mo

9mo

Short credit history, Too many accounts with balances, Seeking credit, Recently opened too many new credit accounts

739

OCT

1yr 10mo

10mo

Short credit history, Too many accounts with balances, Seeking credit, Recently opened too many new credit accounts

739

NOV

1yr 11mo

11mo

Short credit history, Too many accounts with balances, Seeking credit, Recently opened too many new credit accounts

733

DEC

2yr 0mo

1yr 0mo

Short credit history, Short revolving history, High revolving balances, Seeking credit

711

Message 42 of 159
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Oldest account hits 3 yrs scores drops up to 22 points


@Drwaz99 wrote:

Just an update as I was able to re-up my EX CW trial: EQ and TU took much larger hits. (still, nothing has changed on my profile except AoOA turning 3 yrs)

EQ: 765 (down 21)
TU:  760 (down 16)

Only negative item listed on all 3 CRA is "short account history".


Great...so I have this to look forward to next year. lol

 

760+ is still a great score.

Message 43 of 159
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Oldest account hits 3 yrs scores drops up to 22 points

If yall are experiencing scorecard reassignment, you are just starting at the bottom of the next ladder and will get back to where you were and surpass it, so don't feel bad about it, think of it as a right of passage. You'll regain and surpass it before you know it.

More like congratulations!

@Cassie Why do you think AoYR disappeared and reappeared? I would've thought it gone at 12 months.
Message 44 of 159
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Oldest account hits 3 yrs scores drops up to 22 points

Wish we could find a similar point for the '04 models.....5 and 4. Could it be 2.5? @Cassie, BOLO! Smiley Wink
Message 45 of 159
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Oldest account hits 3 yrs scores drops up to 22 points


@Anonymous wrote:
If yall are experiencing scorecard reassignment, you are just starting at the bottom of the next ladder and will get back to where you were and surpass it, so don't feel bad about it, think of it as a right of passage. You'll regain and surpass it before you know it.

More like congratulations!

@Cassie Why do you think AoYR disappeared and reappeared? I would've thought it gone at 12 months.

I think it's because there's not enough behavioral history on this new scorecard to make the best prediction of where I will be in 2 years (or whatever dataset width for this bin). So right now it's a 'poor or fair prediction'.

 

That would explain the jumps at 3mo and 6mo. We all know FICO says they need 6 months of data to generate a score, and this makes perfect sense in the world of predictive analysis. They take, say 2 years of credit usage data on millions of people and regress (logistic regression) over it to find patterns and predictors and set the number of scorecards.

 

It's certainly not a simple comparison of my current data with the current state of data on everyone else - there's no predictive value in that, especially if there's a sudden shift in the economy/unemployment numbers.

 

Message 46 of 159
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Oldest account hits 3 yrs scores drops up to 22 points


@Anonymous wrote:
Wish we could find a similar point for the '04 models.....5 and 4. Could it be 2.5? @Cassie, BOLO! Smiley Wink

I'll find out about EQ 5 and TU 4 tomorrow afternoon on my monthly 3B report.

Message 47 of 159
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Oldest account hits 3 yrs scores drops up to 22 points


@Anonymous wrote:

@Anonymous wrote:
Wish we could find a similar point for the '04 models.....5 and 4. Could it be 2.5? @Cassie, BOLO! Smiley Wink

I'll find out about EQ 5 and TU 4 tomorrow afternoon on my monthly 3B report.


At AoOA 2yr 0mo / AoYA 1yr 0mo:

 

  • EX 2 models are down -19 to -22.
  • TU 4 models are up +10 to +29(!).
  • EQ 5 models all stayed the same.

Through all of that, my middle mortgage score is the same as the last report: EQ 5 at 724.

 

Full results here.

Message 48 of 159
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Oldest account hits 3 yrs scores drops up to 22 points

Gotta ponder this. 5-4-2 didn't move for me at 1 yr AoYA. EQ didn't move at all. Interesting.

 

BUT 5 did shuffle codes for you. Reassignment isn't outside the realm for 5-4-2, but I would've expected some change out of 5.

Message 49 of 159
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Oldest account hits 3 yrs scores drops up to 22 points

@CassieCard What do you think would be a good threshold to change scorecards between aged and non-aged, considering all your knowledge and experience in AI and predictive analytics, knowing everything that you know? You were giving an example of taking two years worth of data and then regressing and potentially determining scorecards from that? So can you give me more insight from your perspective?
Message 50 of 159
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