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Oldest card clocks 3yrs and Fico8 score drops 22 points. can some pls explain why???

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Anonymous
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Re: Oldest card clocks 3yrs and Fico8 score drops 22 points. can some pls explain why???

I can’t wait to read it I’m going now
Message 21 of 37
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Oldest card clocks 3yrs and Fico8 score drops 22 points. can some pls explain why???


@Anonymous wrote:
I can’t wait to read it I’m going now

So many people in that thread think there had to be some change in profile data for that to happen - like it couldn't happen with everything staying the same.

 

I proved that wrong beyond a shadow of a doubt with the EX 2 models at AoOA 2yrs0mo, in this report. Everything reporting exactly as the month before, to the penny, and EX 2 loses -22pts. I even got reason code shifts on EQ 5 without a score change.

 

I don't see how that can be related to anything other than a rebucket/scorecard change.

Message 22 of 37
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Oldest card clocks 3yrs and Fico8 score drops 22 points. can some pls explain why???

I am convinced the age threshold for EX2 is 2 years and 3 years for score 8.
Message 23 of 37
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Oldest card clocks 3yrs and Fico8 score drops 22 points. can some pls explain why???

Now I wanna know where they are for the 04 models.
Message 24 of 37
805orbust
Valued Contributor

Re: Oldest card clocks 3yrs and Fico8 score drops 22 points. can some pls explain why???

Definitely rebucketed. And iirc @SouthJamaica  experimented with auto loan thresholds a few years back and I seem to remember 79% or 78% being one of them... dont know why it stuck in my mind. Maybe we could get clarification.  Or you could search the thread �



Message 25 of 37
SouthJamaica
Mega Contributor

Re: Oldest card clocks 3yrs and Fico8 score drops 22 points. can some pls explain why???


@805orbust wrote:

Definitely rebucketed. And iirc @SouthJamaica  experimented with auto loan thresholds a few years back and I seem to remember 79% or 78% being one of them... dont know why it stuck in my mind. Maybe we could get clarification.  Or you could search the thread �


I definitely did test it, and did not find anything interesting until I got it down to 9%, which was like rocket fuel for my FICO 8 score.

 

As I went down certain imagined thresholds, there were possible slight gains, but it was not possible to determine whether they were solely attributable to the installment utilization decrease.

 

What amazed me was that I continually got an error code indicating that my installment balances were too high, even when it was down to 14%, which I would consider pretty low, and that the error code did not go away until I got down to 9%.

 

 


Total revolving limits 741200 (620700 reporting) FICO 8: EQ 703 TU 704 EX 687

Message 26 of 37
Revelate
Moderator Emeritus

Re: Oldest card clocks 3yrs and Fico8 score drops 22 points. can some pls explain why???


@SouthJamaica wrote:

@805orbust wrote:

Definitely rebucketed. And iirc @SouthJamaica  experimented with auto loan thresholds a few years back and I seem to remember 79% or 78% being one of them... dont know why it stuck in my mind. Maybe we could get clarification.  Or you could search the thread �


I definitely did test it, and did not find anything interesting until I got it down to 9%, which was like rocket fuel for my FICO 8 score.

 

As I went down certain imagined thresholds, there were possible slight gains, but it was not possible to determine whether they were solely attributable to the installment utilization decrease.

 

What amazed me was that I continually got an error code indicating that my installment balances were too high, even when it was down to 14%, which I would consider pretty low, and that the error code did not go away until I got down to 9%.

 

 


Yeah, even my original data showed that reason code stayed till 9%.

 

I'm still convinced on my old data that there's a breakpoint somewhere higher, worth roughly 1/3 the points but financially I've been unable to get down to that level playing with mortgages.  Couple more months either way and I could've maybe sorted it but c'est la vie.  Need a pretty fixed file to really get it, and I only found it the first time because I was flatlined in a dirty scorecard prepping for a mortgage and it doesn't get any more fixed than that really.

 

Clean files just have more volatility especially when doing anything credit related (revolving util changes, new accounts, etc).  I'm basically useless with 2 mortgages now, one of which is in process of being refinanced even so back to 100% there too for getting back down to where I was pre-Houston mortgage, but I got datapoints down to 69% aggregate and hadn't found anything but the old data showed one between north of there and 50 and some other people's data conjoined looks like 66% is the likely target but someone else will have to get it anytime in the next few years (until that Cali condo gets sold and I'm more likely to annihlate the remaining debt I have instead of putting yet more money into the market).

 

Back on topic, @Anonymous 10-15 years?  Where'd that conventional wisdom come in?  Maybe searching for the 850 but for the new file scorecards thought everyone was in agreement it was around the 2-3 year mark depending on score.  Don't know that we ever got that on FICO 04 (EQ/TU are the only ones that matter), though if we have a 3 year datapoint here and Cassie has the 2 year one those are fairly concrete on them... though if I had to guess based on my own experience with EQ FICO 5, it's probably longer than any other score.  FICO went through a pretty gnarly shift from 98 -> NG -> 04 and that latter score went Old Testament seemingly on a bunch of things.  FICO 8 was a loosening on that front, and FICO 9 is a further refinement on that.




        
Message 27 of 37
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Oldest card clocks 3yrs and Fico8 score drops 22 points. can some pls explain why???

@Revelatewe’ve been wondering where that line is forever and everybody thought 10 or 15 years or more, even @Thomas_Thumb  said 10 to 12 years was likely, IIRC. I’ve always theorized it was lower, but few seemed to agree that I recall.

The forum is full of threads with people saying 10, 15, even 20 years. I've seen very few theorize under 10. But maybe I've missed a lot of threads?

I’m just glad we found it. And I wanna know what the line is for 2004. 

Message 28 of 37
Revelate
Moderator Emeritus

Re: Oldest card clocks 3yrs and Fico8 score drops 22 points. can some pls explain why???


@Anonymous wrote:
@Revelatewe’ve been wondering where that line is forever and everybody thought 10 or 15 years even TT said 10 to 12 years was his guess, if I recall correctly. I’ve always theorized it was lower, but few seemed to agree that I recall.

The forum is full of threads with people saying 10, 15, even 20 years.

I’m just glad we found it.

Credit scoring, clearly, loses it's resolution over such great time periods, why would it be 10, 15, 20 years to get out of the new file scorecard when even collections and most other derogatory information is gone in 7?  Dunno I've occasionally been guilty of sloppy thinking too but this one is a new one for me, but there were times that I admittedly sort of ignored this board and I don't even read it fully currently so it's possible I just missed it.

 

+1 on it's being sorted.




        
Message 29 of 37
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Oldest card clocks 3yrs and Fico8 score drops 22 points. can some pls explain why???

I totally agree with you and considering they only look at data slices for logistic regression of two or three years it only makes sense to me the line would be around that as well.

I agree with you it’s never made sense to me the line would be that far out there. And we were both part of the thread last year, that was another piece of evidence that made me believe that it was a shorter time frame.

Now we just got a crack the 2004 versions.
Message 30 of 37
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