Rebucket 5 years post BK7???

[cem13]

In January, I posted a thread about my scores going down from 710 to 680.  The only alert was "dormant account becoming active".  I cycled my sock drawer cards over the Christmas break but my SGV was 7 months since my last use.  The other SD cards triggered an alert for being 5 months dormant but it did not change my score.

Today the final CC reported for the month of February.  Only one card reported a balance and it is 25% of its limit and overall utilization is less than 5%.   So today I pulled my 3B report to confirm there is no new negatives.  I did the comparision of all 3 CRA and compared this to my report months ago when my scores were 710+.  There is nothing new on the report.

The 710+ and 680 reports are almost identical, except my single CC is a few hundred dollars lower this month compared to several months ago.  I am now starting to think that I was re-bucketed in January since it was 5 years post BK7 filing.  The alert was the dormant account but the scores dropped 30+ points across all 3 CRAs.

Any thoughts?

[Revelate]

Interesting.  Derogatories are bucketable, age of credit file appears to be bucketable, time since derogatory on FICO 8, possible or even maybe even likely given the number of scorecards; any idea what your older version of scores have done from DCU or anywhere else?  It's been 2ish months since prettying up your utilization?  As a control I'd let that report only a few bucks next month just for a complete sanity check... did you cross any other age boundaries besides the BK?  Might have got kicked up a class given your credit file, there's multiple negative buckets and you might be compared against possibly prettier people?  We don't really know specific buckets.

Strange though, most people with PR's including me, have generally gone up over time albeit slowly, and not taken a significant hit as a result of a derogatory aging at least with a single algorithm. I always assumed that my tax lien was my primary sort, and then I was compared to others in a similar situation based on whatever other criteria, when I am statistically far more likely have an optimized file than the folks I am compared to.  I do wonder if something subtle happened in your case like an installment line got mis-reported; not saying you're not correct, just doesn't seem especially likely to me at the halfway point through a CH7 but I can't state anything with authority heh.

[cem13]

---

@Revelate wrote:

Interesting.  Derogatories are bucketable, age of credit file appears to be bucketable, time since derogatory on FICO 8, possible or even maybe even likely given the number of scorecards; any idea what your older version of scores have done from DCU or anywhere else?  It's been 2ish months since prettying up your utilization?  As a control I'd let that report only a few bucks next month just for a complete sanity check... did you cross any other age boundaries besides the BK?  Might have got kicked up a class given your credit file, there's multiple negative buckets and you might be compared against possibly prettier people?  We don't really know specific buckets.

Strange though, most people with PR's including me, have generally gone up over time albeit slowly, and not taken a significant hit as a result of a derogatory aging at least with a single algorithm. I always assumed that my tax lien was my primary sort, and then I was compared to others in a similar situation based on whatever other criteria, when I am statistically far more likely have an optimized file than the folks I am compared to.  I do wonder if something subtle happened in your case like an installment line got mis-reported; not saying you're not correct, just doesn't seem especially likely to me at the halfway point through a CH7 but I can't state anything with authority heh.

---

My file since BK7 is perfect.  Last year when I hit 4-year BK7 mark, I applied for a mortgage then after the closing I went on the Mother-of-all-app-sprees and gained about 100K over 10 cards.  I took a hit for INQs and my AAOA dropped by one year.  However as the accounts aged, my score increased back to then a few points past my scores pre-app.  My Util is always less than 5% and individual card is always less than 25%.  So nothing new here.

I received the alert in early January when SGV reported activity.  I bought $7 for 2 large coffees from Tim Hortons on 27DEC15.  I paid the card when I got back home. The card reported $0 balance.  My last CC closes on the last day of the month.  So the first few days of the next month is when all the reporting to CRAs is fininshed.  I do understand that the reporting is on a rotating schedule; however, since I only carry a balance on one CC, my scores change the first of the month only.

In terms of your question about installment loan, I double checked it.  I have 1 mortgage that reports about the 5th of the month, 3 student loans that report about the 8th of the month, a car loan that reports about the 12th of the month.  I found nothing on my reports that would trigger a negative.  All are reporting good for JAN and FEB16. So if this is the cause, I cannot see it on the report.

One more interesting item, when I run the FICO Simulator for on time payments for 24 months, my projected scores are all about 760.  The previous simulator was only 720.  It does not show any score increase until I hit the 23 month mark.  Again this is the anniversary of my BK7 filing.  So this would also indicate a rebucket.

So something happened in the first week of January which dropped my scores 30 points.  It was NOT utilization, and I cannot find any errors in the detailed reports.  I did drop myself off my wife's $5K Barclays in early December.  My AAOA only dropped 2 months, so even if that was a contributor, I have gained back those 2 months.

My FICO mortgage score is much higher with this report than the last report.  So whatever is causing the 30+ point drop is only affecting the FICO 8 score.  My FICO 9 socre is 720+ across the board.  So the activity is only affected by the FICO 8 algorithm.

Thanks for the discussion.

[Revelate]

I don't think the simulator is a good datapoint actually.

It does seem to think I'll gain approximately 15-20 points in the next month or two by paying my bills on time, which is maybe feasible (though given my 1->2 year change was basically 3-4 points I am skeptical) since I should be crossing the 3 year AAOA mark sometime around then depending how it's precisely calculated in the algorithm.  I also seem to gain some points back in July where the bulk of my inquiries should be falling out of the scoring window, that's legitimate as well.

Where it is odd though, when I extend it out it does marginally go up, but I have a massive event coming up in 11/17 where my tax lien comes off (my collection and lates fall off before then) and it doesn't seem to pick that up even when I'm comfortable in stating I will be 20+ points above where it suggests I will be at that point.  Clean file with 4.5 years AAOA is better than a 745 even if it will take me a seriously long time to approach or break an 800 given my wretched installment utilization.

Not sure I can really suggest anything else for you, there are some unknowns in the algorithm and bucketing is absolutely one of those, entirely possible that you did get re-bucketed based on BK age, I just didn't see it with my tax lien data personally but I'm only one other datapoint and tax liens may be scored differently than BK's on multiple fronts.

I have also seen one report suggesting that revolving utilization and similar can be bucketed, and that sometimes a payment may not be instant in time change to score... statistically it doesn't happen often, but it's been stated it has, not sure on the quality of the data admittedly; however, if your score mystically goes up in another couple of months, maybe something to it.

[cem13]

---

@Revelate wrote:

I don't think the simulator is a good datapoint actually.

It does seem to think I'll gain approximately 15-20 points in the next month or two by paying my bills on time, which is maybe feasible (though given my 1->2 year change was basically 3-4 points I am skeptical) since I should be crossing the 3 year AAOA mark sometime around then depending how it's precisely calculated in the algorithm.  I also seem to gain some points back in July where the bulk of my inquiries should be falling out of the scoring window, that's legitimate as well.

Where it is odd though, when I extend it out it does marginally go up, but I have a massive event coming up in 11/17 where my tax lien comes off (my collection and lates fall off before then) and it doesn't seem to pick that up even when I'm comfortable in stating I will be 20+ points above where it suggests I will be at that point.  Clean file with 4.5 years AAOA is better than a 745 even if it will take me a seriously long time to approach or break an 800 given my wretched installment utilization.

Not sure I can really suggest anything else for you, there are some unknowns in the algorithm and bucketing is absolutely one of those, entirely possible that you did get re-bucketed based on BK age, I just didn't see it with my tax lien data personally but I'm only one other datapoint and tax liens may be scored differently than BK's on multiple fronts.

I have also seen one report suggesting that revolving utilization and similar can be bucketed, and that sometimes a payment may not be instant in time change to score... statistically it doesn't happen often, but it's been stated it has, not sure on the quality of the data admittedly; however, if your score mystically goes up in another couple of months, maybe something to it.

---

Thanks for your comments.

[cem13]

@ Revelate, 

I checked my DCU scores and guess what?  They have NOT been affected.  NOV15=700, DEC15=700, JAN16=701 and Feb16=701.

So now what do you think?  FICO8 rebuckets but FICO04 does not?  

This is very interesting.

[Revelate]

---

@cem13 wrote:

@ Revelate, 

I checked my DCU scores and guess what?  They have NOT been affected.  NOV15=700, DEC15=700, JAN16=701 and Feb16=701.

So now what do you think?  FICO8 rebuckets but FICO04 does not?  

This is very interesting.

---

Possibly, the two big changes from a resultant score perspective I'm personally aware of anyway:

1) More scorecards on FICO 8 aka more buckets you could be sorted into.

2) Installment utilization factors on FICO 8, not in FICO 04 (hence my earlier question about something awkward in the installment lines).

There's some other intrinsic differences but not what might explain what you've stumbled into in my estimation; least in my experience FICO 8 was more time sensitive on derogatories (which might factor somehow with you) vs. older versions if you had it, was pretty equivalent regardless of where it was in the time domain and that seems to hold true for any PR type derogatory.

[cem13]

---

@Revelate wrote:

---

Possibly, the two big changes from a resultant score perspective I'm personally aware of anyway:

1) More scorecards on FICO 8 aka more buckets you could be sorted into.

2) Installment utilization factors on FICO 8, not in FICO 04 (hence my earlier question about something awkward in the installment lines).

There's some other intrinsic differences but not what might explain what you've stumbled into in my estimation; least in my experience FICO 8 was generally more lenient on recent derogatories though on old ones, seem to be pretty equivalent now but I don't have good access to TU 04 for real comparison purposes unlike what I've traditionally had between EQ Beacon 5 and Beacon 9.

---

I will go back through my installment loans again.  As I mentioned, I have 1 mortgage opened in MAR15; starting balance $85K and current balance is $78K. Three 3 Student Loans opened in SEP05, SEP06, and SEP07; starting balance ~$15K each with current balance ~$6K each.  One refinanced car loan AUG14 starting balance ~$14K and current balance ~$7K.

I have several loans closed prior to BK7, 2 mortgages IIB, 2 home equity IIB, and one student loan closed AUG13 PIF.

What should I be looking for with these loans?

[Revelate]

---

@cem13 wrote:

---

@Revelate wrote:

---

Possibly, the two big changes from a resultant score perspective I'm personally aware of anyway:

1) More scorecards on FICO 8 aka more buckets you could be sorted into.

2) Installment utilization factors on FICO 8, not in FICO 04 (hence my earlier question about something awkward in the installment lines).

There's some other intrinsic differences but not what might explain what you've stumbled into in my estimation; least in my experience FICO 8 was generally more lenient on recent derogatories though on old ones, seem to be pretty equivalent now but I don't have good access to TU 04 for real comparison purposes unlike what I've traditionally had between EQ Beacon 5 and Beacon 9.

---

I will go back through my installment loans again.  As I mentioned, I have 1 mortgage opened in MAR15; starting balance $85K and current balance is $78K. Three 3 Student Loans opened in SEP05, SEP06, and SEP07; starting balance ~$15K each with current balance ~$6K each.  One refinanced car loan AUG14 starting balance ~$14K and current balance ~$7K.

I have several loans closed prior to BK7, 2 mortgages IIB, 2 home equity IIB, and one student loan closed AUG13 PIF.

What should I be looking for with these loans?

---

What I would personally be looking for is comparing the good score report with the lower score report:

1) Are the loan types reporting the same?

2) Are the original balances reporting the same?

3) Anything different in the responsibilty or term lines?

That sort of thing though I think that covers the majority of the potential differences.

It's sorta unlikely but just trying to rule out possibilities honestly, rebucketing is really really hard to positively prove and your situation is way way outside normal at least to my understanding of the algorithm .  Which is admittedly limited.

[cem13]

---

@Revelate wrote:

What I would personally be looking for is comparing the good score report with the lower score report:

1) Are the loan types reporting the same?

2) Are the original balances reporting the same?

3) Anything different in the responsibilty or term lines?

That sort of thing though I think that covers the majority of the potential differences.

It's sorta unlikely but just trying to rule out possibilities honestly, rebucketing is really really hard to positively prove and your situation is way way outside normal at least to my understanding of the algorithm .  Which is admittedly limited.

---

I reviewed my 3B report.  Here are a few things that are different over the past few months.

1) CLI on SGV $5k -> $5,800 via Luv Button (balance $0)

2) CLI on Menards (Cap1) $5k -> $7,800 via Luv Button (balance $0)

3) I removed myself as AU from my wife's Barclay's Card in NOV15 but it reported in JAN16.  It was opened APR12 so there was no hit to my AAOA.  Her CL is only $5K so it does affect my Util %.  It shows "terminated" on the report.

I did not see any changes to my installment accounts.  They are updating monthly as I pay them down.

Any thoughts?