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fico2 scores bounce back fast?

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Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: fico2 scores bounce back fast?


@Anonymous wrote:
@CassieCard I am definitely looking forward to it. But I do not expect any significant gains on the mortgage scores and if you do have any, then I would suspect it is scorecard dependent upon young or thin cards.

EX 2 down -22pts: 733 to 711!

 

I bet this doesn't happen with @creds profile when revolving credit history reaches 1 year, due to having more cards. I can't wait to see that result.

 

No worries. (Table of EX updates.)

Message 21 of 36
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: fico2 scores bounce back fast?


@Revelate wrote:

Surprisingly I'm still down 30 points in EX FICO 8 from my earlier high this year before I opened new accounts and I've been clean for over six months now... I think that score recovery has been vastly overstated for mature and generally stable files, and for newer files I strongly suspect the points are coming from other sources than the most recent account aging.

I'm beginning to think that my significant AoYA 3 and 6 month gains are coming from what I would call 'Average Age of Revolving Accounts'. This is equal to AoYA on my profile.

 

Every 3 months - 3/6/9 mo and just happened again at 12mo - I've seen 'Short revolving credit history' move down the list. Since there is also 'Short credit history', the algorithm has to be tracking revolving accounts separately from AoOA/AAoA/AoYA.

 

For profiles like yours and @Birdman7's, revolving account age will have a very low weighting, if it shows up as a reason at all.

Message 22 of 36
Revelate
Moderator Emeritus

Re: fico2 scores bounce back fast?


@Anonymous wrote:

@Revelate wrote:

Surprisingly I'm still down 30 points in EX FICO 8 from my earlier high this year before I opened new accounts and I've been clean for over six months now... I think that score recovery has been vastly overstated for mature and generally stable files, and for newer files I strongly suspect the points are coming from other sources than the most recent account aging.

I'm beginning to think that my significant AoYA 3 and 6 month gains are coming from what I would call 'Average Age of Revolving Accounts'. This is equal to AoYA on my profile.

 

Every 3 months - 3/6/9 mo and just happened again at 12mo - I've seen 'Short revolving credit history' move down the list. Since there is also 'Short credit history', the algorithm has to be tracking revolving accounts separately from AoOA/AAoA/AoYA.

 

For profiles like yours and @Birdman7's, revolving account age will have a very low weighting, if it shows up as a reason at all.


Well I actually see the short revolving credit history as a pretty consistent reason code on my files for the newer models. 

 

As we discussed before I can't understand why my scores didn't move with the installment loans being added and then I got whacked on the two revolvers being added unless it's explicitly youngest revolver which makes some sense I suppose.  I'm not sure if it's average age of revolvers or youngest age of revolvers... agreed it's not a major factor on mine as it's usually in the #3 or #4 slots TBH.

 

Sadly I don't get good FICO 8 reason codes now, though it's on both FICO 8 AU and BC but both sit behind the usual short credit history, new account, recently looking for credit.  I have 2/4 inquiries turning one year tomorrow on Experian, we'll see if the recently looking for credit shifts below the revolving line.

 

Also just noticed something: that short revolving history reason code does show up on FICO 9 on the 60D late scorecard... and I'm pretty much 100% convinced that it doesn't on any derogatory scorecard prior to FICO 9.  Serious deliquency tag still there so I don't think 60D lates suddenly became top 8 or whatever on FICO 9.

 

Huh another interesting one, short revolving history is the #1 reason code on a clean FICO 9 BC even above short account history.  Don't really monitor FICO 9 at all nor the industry options specifically but it's interesting to see the relative weights of various things.




        
Message 23 of 36
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: fico2 scores bounce back fast?


@Anonymous wrote:

@Anonymous wrote:

well i just allowed 3 cards to report a balance, a very small tiny balance, but it caused all my fico2 based scores to drop about 20 points! it only caused my fico8 to drop by 1 point. so this is a very significant factor for the fico2. i wonder if the point penalty would have been less if only 2 cards reported a balance. Smiley Frustrated


That's really interesting. My EX 2 will drop 6 points with 2/2 cards reporting a balance and yours drops ~20pts with 3/4.

 

 


@CassieCard Shows the difference it can make having more revolvers! Smiley Wink

Message 24 of 36
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: fico2 scores bounce back fast?


@Revelate wrote:

In my experience EX FICO 2 (and FICO 98 model in general) isn't the same weighting as new accounts in the FICO 04 model (EQ FICO 5 / TU FICO 4 when we're talking mortgage scores).

 

I have the same accounts now between EX / EQ, same pattern of opening in the last year, etc ad nasuem.  Both clean scorecards with some smattering of inquiries and identical new accounts.

 

EX FICO 2: New Accounts reason code = #4

EQ FICO 5: New accounts reason code = #1

 

For reference the order matters: the higher on the list the stronger effect on your resultant score.  Actually I suspect new accounts is a scorecard segmentation device in EQ FICO 5, #1 anecdotally seems to be that in general on most files I've seen reason codes for, not sure if that admittedly holds in all FICO models but AAOA, PR, 60D+ late, and open accounts are all reason codes which sort to the top on EQ FICO 5.  Surprisingly I'm still down 30 points in EX FICO 8 from my earlier high this year before I opened new accounts and I've been clean for over six months now... I think that score recovery has been vastly overstated for mature and generally stable files, and for newer files I strongly suspect the points are coming from other sources than the most recent account aging.

 

Admittedly both of my EQ/EX mortgage scores (when I have proper balances reporting) are around 780 or even slightly higher looking at the EQ one from last month; however, new accounts matter a lot more on the FICO 04 models for clean files than they do on EX FICO 2.  Given that 2/3 of the mortgage scores are underwritten under said FICO 04 models, the recommendation if at all possible to stay scrupulously clean with regards to new accounts in a year is still optimal.

 

End of the day a mortgage is generally the most important financial decision in one's life: additional credit cards simply don't rate and frankly can wait if you've already established enough from a file thickness perspective.


Rev Sorry for the late reply, but wanted to mention a couple thoughts. First, take a look at my siggy. You can see the effects of 5 new revolvers reporting, 3 months later. I also had the new loan 2 months prior to the card opening dates. You may recall I discovered loans do NOT reset AoYA for at least version 8...That was while you were busy, but I think I messaged you the links, if not I can, for all the discoveries I made then.

 

https://ficoforums.myfico.com/t5/Understanding-FICO-Scoring/New-loan-awards-quot-clean-aged-thick-no...

 

To borrow your words: I have the same accounts now between EX / TU, same pattern of opening in the last year, etc ad nasuem.  Both clean scorecards with some smattering of inquiries and identical new accounts. Only difference is mine is EX/TU. EQ has one old account that's closed its been holding onto since the 90's.

 

EX FICO 2: New Accounts reason code = Non-existent (only 3 codes, so not pushed off)

EX FICO 2: Recently Opened Too Many New Credit Accounts = #2

 

TU FICO 04: New Accounts reason code = #1

 

EQ FICO 5: New accounts reason code = #1

 

So that definitely supports your position new accounts cost more on FICO 04, even when its multiple accounts! While you were gone, I questioned whether AoYA as we know it for FICO 08 exists in earlier versions. I failed to see AoYA awards at 1 year really except Version 8. Strangely enough, FICO 9 took points from me! Check it:

 

https://ficoforums.myfico.com/t5/Understanding-FICO-Scoring/12-mo-AoYA-awards-clean-aged-thick/m-p/5...

 

So, also while you were gone, I came to question the source of these 3/6/9 month awards. Since we know "new accounts" is a segmentation factor in FICO 08, there should only be the one breakpoint (12 months) and one award, which plenty of data support. But, as you can see from my tightly-controlled data, 5-4-2 cared less about 12 months AoYA. Made me question whether AoYA is a segmenter in earlier versions.

 

Likewise, I came up with a theory for the source of the awards, though I may be wrong. I posited it came from 3, 6, and 9 months of revolver age without delinquency, Amounts Owed sector, possibly? But only for young or thin files..or maybe both? Definitely not for old thick files!

 

 

Message 25 of 36
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: fico2 scores bounce back fast?


@Anonymous wrote:

I'm beginning to think that my significant AoYA 3 and 6 month gains are coming from what I would call 'Average Age of Revolving Accounts'. This is equal to AoYA on my profile.

 

Every 3 months - 3/6/9 mo and just happened again at 12mo - I've seen 'Short revolving credit history' move down the list. Since there is also 'Short credit history', the algorithm has to be tracking revolving accounts separately from AoOA/AAoA/AoYA.

 

For profiles like yours and @Birdman7's, revolving account age will have a very low weighting, if it shows up as a reason at all.


Interesting. Keep in mind AoYA appears to be AoYRA (revolving), excluding installment accounts.

 

And no doubt the scorecard reassignment @ AoYA 12 months caused the EX2 drops. Look forward to the rest of the changes, assuming its a segmenter in FICO 98. I can thinkof no other reason for te drops though, all you did was add age right?

Message 26 of 36
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: fico2 scores bounce back fast?


@Revelate wrote:

As we discussed before I can't understand why my scores didn't move with the installment loans being added and then I got whacked on the two revolvers being added unless it's explicitly youngest revolver which makes some sense I suppose.  I'm not sure if it's average age of revolvers or youngest age of revolvers... agreed it's not a major factor on mine as it's usually in the #3 or #4 slots TBH.


Yeah, I determined loans don't reset AoYA, so its AoYR, really. Yes, it's explicitly the youngest revolver, I believe.

Message 27 of 36
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: fico2 scores bounce back fast?

i just checked my 3b reports again: my TU fico8 fell 15pts due to the 3 cards reporting a balance. but i gained +5 pts on experian!!? pretty weird. both are now almost exactly the same, 721 & 722. i'm pretty sure TU will bounce back again when i pay off the balances, the scores seem to remember where they were and bounce back.

 

today i was supposed to become scorable on eq, but my 3b report glitched. the entire eq report is missing. Smiley Sad i will have to check next week to see what it is, since i don't know anyone giving out free eq scores.

Message 28 of 36
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: fico2 scores bounce back fast?

@creds Do TU and EX have the same data? same changes reported?
Message 29 of 36
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: fico2 scores bounce back fast?


@Anonymous wrote:


Interesting. Keep in mind AoYA appears to be AoYRA (revolving), excluding installment accounts.

 

And no doubt the scorecard reassignment @ AoYA 12 months caused the EX2 drops. Look forward to the rest of the changes, assuming its a segmenter in FICO 98. I can thinkof no other reason for te drops though, all you did was add age right?


Yes, just aging of 1 month - same exact balances as reported on my November 10 3B report. TU will go to zero scorable inquiries on Dec 20, followed by EX/EQ (Citi double-pull) on Dec 23. This will be a major boost across all 28 scores, since it was such a big hit last year. (My -20pts for an inq on EQ 8 is the highest drop I've never read about.)

 

I think the changes this month are due to AoOA reaching 2 years. See this post by @thornback, which references a few posts by  @Thomas_thumb.

Message 30 of 36
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