There are a few things you need to understand here in order to change your perspective on this subject.
First, simulators are trash. You shouldn't use them IMO. Just because a simulator says you'll gain 20 points doesn't mean you are supposed to get 20 points no matter what. Everyone has different profiles made up of an infinite amount of data points relative to one another, far more than any crappy simulator can ever take into consideration. You taking screenshots of what the simulator says isn't going to buy you anything. A simulator is no different than you asking any person on this forum what they think would happen to your score if you did X. You wouldn't bash one of them or screenshot their text if they "got it wrong" as it's just a guess. I'd actually argue that the well versed members of this forum would provide you with a better guess than a simulator could.
Second, if Y event causes your score to drop 10 points, reversing Y event causes your score to gain 10 points. That's a fact. You're saying that a balance increase of Y causes you to drop X points and that reversing this and reporting a balance decrease of Y causes you go gain back less than X points. I can assure you that there's another factor or factors at play here. All this means is that something else changed with your file at the same time. You'd have to look at your CR and compare it before/after to try and determine what that is.
To go along with the last point, alerts received do not have to be at all related to the score change provided at the time of the alert. Alerts are received for alertable events (like a balance change, new inquiry, etc). There are plenty of non-alertable events though that are happening all the time with your profile to which you'll never see an alert. Things like negative information falling off, accounts aging, inquiries falling off, etc. Your score can change all the time from non-alertable events. Where you run into trouble is when you see an alert pop up and then you believe that the score change provided at the time was only influenced by that alert. That's often not the case.
You didn't really provide us with enough information about your revolving accounts to give you much advice. You'd need to list out all of your accounts with their current balance / current limit for us to determine what you have going on. You say you raise a balance $1000 and then lower it $1000. If this is a $1200 limit card, that could be very impactful. If it's a $12,000 limit card, a $1000 balance change may have no impact on score at all. Also generally speaking, the fewer revolvers you have the more volatile balance changes may be. With fewer revolvers, generally your overall limits are smaller and as a percentage you have more accounts with balances reported. If you can stop back in and provide some more info there we may be able to better explain what might be going on.
