Will Chase/Amex shut me down for my app spree? (4/2, 7/12)

[Thorin809]

I have about $8k in regular purchases and $1500/mo in regular CC spend. I haven't aimed for SUBs aside from cards I would use regularly.  Will the spree I'm about to do get me shutdown/AA or start getting denied?

I'm at 2/24 (Feb and April 2024) and credit score is around 800. AAoA is 8 years. Oldest accounts are 13.5 years (Cap1) and 12.5 years (USAA, PenFed, Chase). Total available balance is ~$71k.

I fly mostly Delta (plus some SW for certain routes) and prefer Hilton, so I prioritized those. I have a corporate card so I get discounts on some of the Amex AFs (Green, Gold, Platinum and BCP)

This is my plan:

• Month 1: CSP
• Month 2: Chase Southwest Plus
• Month 3: Amex Delta Gold
• Month 4: Amex HHonors
• Month 5: Cap1 Venture Rewards
• Month 7: Amex Green
• Month 10: Amex Gold

From there, I get into the higher level spending reqs for Amex, so I don't think the velocity will be as much of an issue (3-5 months between cards until I'm back under 5/24).

Assuming no pop-up jail, does this plan make sense?  Or is it likely one/both of them shut me down?

[Tdatb64]

Chase doesn't reuse hard pulls. Applying for two cards could cost you up to four hard pulls, as Chase likes to pull Experian AND one of the other two, (virtually always on a first Chase card, additional cards YMMV). Chase also doesn't like to approve multiple cards in one day or even one month: while the automated system might do it, there's a good chance they close the second card in <6 weeks. Numerous sources say it's best to wait at least 90 days between Chase card applications.

Amex will probably make you wait a year before offering an upgrade for a card.  Turning your Month 7 & Month 10 into new-card apps if no upgrade available would put you at 5 new card apps in 9 months with Amex: that's probably pushing it a bit, (OK, a lot!). They might love your profile and give them to you and after you have one card subsequent apps are usually soft pulls, so it shouldn't hurt your scores to try but it certainly might look to them like "credit-seeking behavior" and affect previously-approved accounts.

[coldfusion]

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@Thorin809 wrote:

I have about $8k in regular purchases and $1500/mo in regular CC spend. I haven't aimed for SUBs aside from cards I would use regularly.  Will the spree I'm about to do get me shutdown/AA or start getting denied?

I'm at 2/24 (Feb and April 2024) and credit score is around 800. I fly mostly Delta (plus some SW for certain routes) and prefer Hilton, so I prioritized those. I have a corporate card so I get discounts on some of the Amex AFs (Green, Gold, Platinum and BCP)

This is my plan:

• Month 1: CSP and Chase Southwest Plus (to combine HP)
• Month 3: Amex Delta Gold and Amex HHonors (to combine HP)
• Month 5: Cap1 Venture Rewards
• Month 7: Amex Delta Platinum (upgrade from Gold if avail)
• Month 10: Amex Hilton Surpass (upgrade from HHonors if avail)
• Month 12: Amex Green

From there, I get into the higher level spending reqs for Amex, so I don't think the velocity will be as much of an issue (3-5 months between cards until I'm back under 5/24.

Assuming no pop-up jail, does this plan make sense?  Or is it likely one/both of them shut me down?

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A card issuer by law cannot upgrade a card to a different one with a higher AF for at least 12 months after approval; that requirement was put in place years ago to deter bait-and-switch tactics being practiced by less scrupulous lenders.  Plan accordingly regarding your AMEX choices and timeline keeping in mind that you may get offers to upgrade, sometimes with bonuses, after a card's 12 month window has passed.  Also regarding AMEX, while the odds are very high that an existing AMEX cardholder will avoid an Experian hard pull if accepting an approval for an additional card  - they currently make the credit decision based on a soft pull, they don't hard pull if you reject the approval - it's been shown emperically that avoiding another HP is not guaranteed.

Cap1 would be a roll of the dice as they can be intolerant of recent credit seeking and they hard pull all 3 major CRAs so it's tough for something to slip through any cracks.

Chase does not reuse hard pulls and they do not support 2 Chase approvals on the same day; if you somehow managed to get approved for the 2nd card they will close it without warning at some point within the next 2 months.  Applying for the 2nd card even the next calendar day is allowed, but your profile is kind of thin to support best odds of a 2nd Chase approval so close to a 1st one.

Minus the points I made above about the card upgrades,  what you're looking to do is possible but is pretty aggressive especially given you don't appear to have a really thick and wide credit profile.

[Thorin809]

@Tdatb64 wrote:

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Thanks for the info and response!

I based the combining hard pulls on posts like this one and this one where people applied for two cards for Chase on the same day/within a few days and only got 1 pull, with the cards kept open.

I have a long history with Chase (12.5 years for my Chase Amazon, plus a car loan paid off) and a much shorter (corporate card) history with Amex, so I'm hoping they'll be a little more forgiving.

I think you're right about Amex making me wait a year before allowing upgrades, especially given what coldfusion said before about it being the law (CARD Act) if the AF changes.

I adjusted the plan to take that into consideration. I split the Chase and Amex cards to not be in the same month. I also changed it so the Green would be 7 instead of 12 and I'll try to get those upgrades next year. I'll also try to get the Gold after I hit the Green SUB, but may push that to months 13 or 14.

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@coldfusion wrote:

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Thanks for the info as well! I've updated the original post to shift out the upgrades and just apply to the Gold outright.

I included the sub-1 year upgrades since I have seen some people get upgraded before a year is up, but it was probably bad systems, untrained CSRs, or equivalent AFs (or all of the above). I adjusted accordingly.

I have an existing Cap1 card (about 13.5 years on my QS) and Chase Amazon (about 12.5 years). I have a corporate Amex, but that's much more recent and doesn't show up in my credit report.

I have seen a few threads where people applied for 2 cards from 0-14 days of each other and only had one HP. It could be a YMMV thing, though. I have a long history with Chase (12.5 years for my Chase Amazon, plus a car loan paid off) and a much shorter (corporate card) history with Amex, so I'm hoping they'll be a little more forgiving. But maybe I'll give it a month or so since I don't strictly need the combined SUBs right away.

[coldfusion]

Applying for 2 Chase cards same-day used to be a thing - look up what was at the time nicknamed the Chase Double Dip - until Chase put the kibosh on it by adding the only-1-card-per-day rule; that led to the Modified Double Dip aka "MDD" paradigm.  Chase later killed off the permutations of that paradigm that involved both the CSR and CSP  (was popular as you could get at least 120,000 UR with $8K spend) by adding their 1 Sapphire Card rule but other combinations made up for example of 1 Sapphire product and 1 Freedom product still worked.   Those 2 reddit threads you linked would date back to from when the Double Dip was still possible,  odds of being able to do that successfully today are abysmally low.

I still think that you're being aggressive but nowhere near to the point of being delusional ;-)    Good luck and I'll cross my fingers for a positive outcome!

[sjt]

Chase and other creditors do monthly SP reviews, so a spree could have an impact. I would slow it down to be safe.

[WeaponizedApe]

I got my AMEX Gold Delta and AMEX HH within a month of each other plus the subs. I did not get the Bonvoy or Plat subs about two months later. But the other perks were worth it to me. And once you have AMEX they dont do hard pulls for follow on cards. 

[ocheosa]

Given the info provided, looks as if you currently have 3 personal cards TCL $71k? If this is not the case and you have a history of app sprees, proceed as you've detailed.

Otherwise, this is the schedule I would recommend. A bit more conservative. Gives new accounts breathing room so no one is spooked (credit seeking), while allowing you time to grow the starting limits. Just another opinion. Good luck!

• Month 1: CSP
• Month 2 or 7: Chase Southwest Plus
• Month 7 or 2: Amex Delta Gold
• Month 8: Amex HHonors
• Month 13-14: Cap1 Venture Rewards
• Month ??: Amex Green <-Not sure why you need a 2nd personal charge card? Sounds as if you are already taking advantage of the coporate card. Maybe consider one of the US Bank/Elan or BOA/Citi cards for added diversity?
• Month ??: Amex Gold <-wait for a promo offer. AmEx will hound you with charge card promo emails.

[coldfusion]

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@WeaponizedApe wrote:

 And once you have AMEX they dont do hard pulls for follow on cards. 

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That's been debunked, even with the updated approval process they now follow.    The odds are very low that it will happen, but it does sometimes happen if you an accept an approval offer and you don't get any prior warning that they are going to do it.