@Trikoret wrote:I just upgraded to this card since they offered 150 cash back plus first free. I think I'm going to downgrade when the annual fee hits. I spend way more than 6k year in groceries. Plus I have the Amex Gold card. I figured by upgrading I'll easily earn $510 cash back the first year. They should at least make the cap at 12k. Then it'll be a keeper for me.
The BCP's low $6K cap, the complicated rewards calculations I discussed earlier, and earning 4x MR on groceries or dining with Gold were all reasons I decided the Gold was a better grocery card. Knowing what your 'real' rewards rate will be in advance may be difficult with BCP. Gold is just more straightforward and with the higher $25K cap on groceries, it's practical for most household budgets. (That covers about $480 weekly grocery spend.) Unless you never travel so could therefore never use MRs, it appears the Gold is a winner to me. It was suggested to me by some on the forum to choose either cash or MRs with AMEX. I chose MRs.
@Aim_High wrote:The BCP's low $6K cap, the complicated rewards calculations I discussed earlier, and earning 4x MR on groceries or dining with Gold were all reasons I decided the Gold was a better grocery card. Knowing what your 'real' rewards rate will be in advance may be difficult with BCP. Gold is just more straightforward and with the higher $25K cap on groceries, it's practical for most household budgets. (That covers about $480 weekly grocery spend.) Unless you never travel so could therefore never use MRs, it appears the Gold is a winner to me. It was suggested to me by some on the forum to choose either cash or MRs with AMEX. I chose MRs.
@Aim_High Think you might go for the Schwab Plat to add a cashout option?
@PullingMeSoftly wrote:
@Aim_High wrote:The BCP's low $6K cap, the complicated rewards calculations I discussed earlier, and earning 4x MR on groceries or dining with Gold were all reasons I decided the Gold was a better grocery card.
@Aim_High Think you might go for the Schwab Plat to add a cashout option?
That does seem to be the best Platinum card option for that very reason, @PullingMeSoftly. But as much as I've been tempted by the high SUB offerings of the Platinum lately, it just doesn't make good sense for me over the longer term. I don't buy enough airfare, value airport lounges highly enough, or have organic spending to take full advantage of credits. It would be a long-term money loser with the AF. I considered Platinum when I got the Chase Sapphire Reserve and thought it was a better fit for my spending and lifestyle since the travel definition is wider and the credits would be easier for me to recoup.
@Anonymous wrote:
@Aim_High wrote:... Knowing what your 'real' rewards rate will be in advance may be difficult with BCP. Gold is just more straightforward ...
While I agree that for many the Gold maybe a better choice, surely knowing a real reward rate with the gold can be at least equally hard. If you are transferring MRs to partners, you can get a wide range of value (and even then there is some question as to how to calculate, with aspirational redemptions)
That's true, @Anonymous, and I actually thought about that as I was writing. The difference is that while MRs have a potentially wide range of valuation depending on redemption, I have a choice on how I cash them in to optimize their value. With cash returns, you get what you get. There really isn't any way to leverage your cash rewards return higher unless you possibly increase spending to non-organic levels to boost overall return. (For example, add some streaming services that you wouldn't have ordered anyway, or buying more groceries than you would have purchased if you're below the $6K cap.) And then, what's the point?
At the very low end, cash value of MRs are about 6/10 ccp so 4x MR on grocery-dining is 2.4%. That's really not great compared to my AOD at 3% and BofA PR at 2.625% minimum. Or higher than 3% with CSR/BofA PR for dining. But even at barebones, it's a respectable return, even if a little less than the no-AF BCE. For anyone unable to offset the AF with credits, the Gold card for groceries redeemed for only cash value and further weighed down with a $250 AF is a very poor proposition.
However, if I can manage to offset the majority of the AF with credits, the Gold can cost me little to nothing beyond those cards. For example, in 2021 with the change in credits, Gold cardholders can still claim the old $100 airline fee credit until the end of the year, plus the old $120 ($10 monthly) Dining credit (including GrubHub) and the new-for-2021 UBER credit ($10 monthly for rides or Uber Eats.) If you took full advantage, the previous $220 Dining/Airline fee credits which lowered the effective AF to $30 are now worth $340, meaning you're net-positive up to $90 for the year 2021.
Moreover, on the other end of the scale, the potential is there to net 1.5 ccp to 2.0 ccp per MR, meaning 6% to 8%. Some have even reported better than 2 ccp. So if you play your cards right (pun intended) 
you could be getting that actual 6% return having recouped the entire AF in credits. Having the MRs in your AMEX account puts you in control of what value you find acceptable for redemption.
I agree that you never know the value of any points system until after it's been redeemed. To me, I think the potential upside of that high return exceeds the downside of possibly having to cash-in at that bottom rate of 6/10 ccp.