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Income estimate based on size of credit limits?

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Anonymous
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Re: Income estimate based on size of credit limits


@Anonymous wrote:

@Anonymous wrote:

Look at it this way:  Income Estimation is basically another "score" like FICO or FAKO that lenders will use as a PART of their decision.  If there is not adequate information to make a decision on income, then they will ask for verification, just like they may ask for ID verification on some apps.

 

Sometimes CCCs want a utility statement and copy of DL for ID.  Sometimes they want paystubs or W2 for income.

 

The "estimation" equation will try to eliminate the need for those docs part or much of the time.

 

 


 

Personally, I don't believe they could come up with a statistically validated method to impute income by using credit limits or even spending patterns, but who knows?  I have seen various state governments trying to impute income in child support cases and they seldom hit the mark.  I hope CRAs can do better.

 

As long as there is a mechanism whereby an applicant can supply validated proof of income to overcome errors made by the CRAs, I think it might be ok.  Besides, I would think that to comply with the ECOA CCCs will not have a really high threshold for approval at lower credit limits.  If they later decide to raise a CL would the law require them to verify an increased income?


 

Sure they can.  It is called data interpolation.

 

When you apply for credit or loans, you often or usually must disclose an income and possibly debt disclosure.  Most prime lenders or those within a given "risk" model will grant credit based upon ranges of acceptable DTI.

 

Based upon your approval of credit or loans, and the size of credit or loans.... a hypothesis or interpolated estimated may be derived.  The more TL's you have (law of large numbers) the more accurate the estimation potential.

 

Furthermore, it is likely that the estimation equation will keep track of "known characteristics of lenders."  Discover will have credit CL ranges different from other lenders.

 

When you take these data points, then compare with other data elements such as FICO.  By comparing the CL ranges and the individual CL's to FICO ranges and individual ranges, and then interpolating with income tables (not your income but ranges of income to known elements of credit) a 'likely income estimation' can be derived.

 

The estimations will become more accurate over time as more data is gathered and the algorithms are refined based upon measurments of accuracy over time.

 

This will never be definitive, just as FICO is not definitive.  It is just one more tool for lenders to use to both to comply with regs and also to statistically improve their risk lending policies.

 

Smiley Happy

 

 

Message 31 of 36
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Income estimate based on size of credit limits

Most people just don't understand financial engineering. The financial engineers are everywhere. They even are involved in cruise pricing. Very much propeller head stuff!
Message 32 of 36
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Income estimate based on size of credit limits

I agree with the premise that the government could never get it done or that it would never be useful....but in the private sector, not so much of a challenge.

 

Using relational data analysis, combined with actuarial, statistical and probability algorithms....all mixed up to a nice self improving data interpolation output (as the data pool grows, law of large numbers combined with measured refinements, becomes more predictive)....FICO/Plus/TransRisk/Vantage, etc. gets upgrade to include income estimates as a part of the grading system.

 

If you think about this, it all ready kinda happens.  Part of the key to high CL's is having high CL's.  When I got my first $25k CL, I then got several others in quick succession, whereas prior to that $10k was my glass ceiling, even though through all of this my income and financial circumstance had not changed during this 8 month app campaign.

 

 

Message Edited by txjohn on 01-15-2010 10:14 AM
Message 33 of 36
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Income estimate based on size of credit limits

I think it will be a hard thing for CCC and CRA to come up with a statstic. I have never had a Mortgage...always bought my three homes Cash since i started getting my Oil and Gas Royalties on my ranch in tx, in addition i have been approved for recent things only because i have an LOC with 3 banks for 2.5 Million combined. But aside from that how would they get a hold of assets, particularly hard ones that are not public, like net worth of total minerals on the ranch, without modeling in the flux in commodity prices. IDK
Message 34 of 36
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Income estimate based on size of credit limits


@Anonymous wrote:
I think it will be a hard thing for CCC and CRA to come up with a statstic. I have never had a Mortgage...always bought my three homes Cash since i started getting my Oil and Gas Royalties on my ranch in tx, in addition i have been approved for recent things only because i have an LOC with 3 banks for 2.5 Million combined. But aside from that how would they get a hold of assets, particularly hard ones that are not public, like net worth of total minerals on the ranch, without modeling in the flux in commodity prices. IDK

 

It will be no different than FICO.  If you don't have adequate data (TL's) then FICO doesn't generate a score.  Estimation would be similar.  Not enough info means the lender would not be able to obtain any estimate data which means they probably will ask you for manual docs to verify.

 

 

Message 35 of 36
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Income estimate based on size of credit limits

True need to talk to my tax lawyer about that
Message 36 of 36
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