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So I have a theory....

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icyhot
Valued Contributor

So I have a theory....

Of why people may get AA. I may be way off base but correct me if I'm wrong.

Person A is approved for a Chase card with a $15,000 limit and lowest available APR. They then open 5 new accounts and accumulate 15 INQs in 30 days.

Person B is approved for the same Chase card but with the lowest required SL and highest APR. They too open 5 accounts and accumulate 15 INQs.

Person A's credit profile is considerably stronger than Person B's, longer AAOA and lower UTL.

Person A sees AA, Person B doesn't.

Why? Because Person B got a marginal approval, and so the bank approved them knowing they were a risk anyway. Hence the low limit and high APR. However no AA will be taken unless there's actual default. Whereas Person A was trusted with a large credit line and low APR, thus proving the banks wrong, and perhaps posing a risk.

I always see stories of AA from folks who were granted very high limits and probably had decent credit until something spooked the bank, myself included. What do you think? Am I missing something?
Ch 7 BK discharged 12/2018
Bank Cards: NFCU Flagship Rewards $25K | NFCU Cash Rewards $20K |NFCU More Rewards Amex $17K | PenFed Power Cash $12.5K | PenFed Platinum Rewards $12.5K | PenFed Pathfinder Rewards $10K | PenFed Gold Card $7.5K | PayPal Cashback Mastercard $5K | Apple Card $3.5K
Store Cards: Bergdorf Goodman $10.5K | Neiman Marcus $7.5K | Care Credit $7K |
Scores: EX 656 | EQ 667 | TU 680


Goal Card: Amex Platinum (Amex IIB, waiting for 5 year mark)
Message 1 of 16
15 REPLIES 15
mssher
New Contributor

Re: So I have a theory....

Your theory makes perfect sense!

USAA AmEx 17,000 | USAA Visa 14,500 | BOA Visa 10,000 | BOA World MC 10,000 | Fifth Third 9,000 | Discover IT 13,500 | Barclay Apple Rewards 6,440 | AMEX BCE 6,000 | Citi DC 6,3000 | US Bank Cash+ Visa Sig 5,000 | PenFed Visa Sig 5,000 | Alliant Visa 5,000 | Citi Sears 5,000 | State Farm Visa Sig 5,000 | CapOne QS 5,250 | Firestone 2,200 | Kohls 2,000 |
FICO 8: EX 782 - EQ 794 - TU 796 *** Goal: Decrease Number of Cards to 12 + store cards ***
Message 2 of 16
kdm31091
Super Contributor

Re: So I have a theory....

What this boils down to is risk. The person with newer accounts, worse APRs, lower limits is riskier than the person with longer, established history and "better" accounts.

 

AA is not something that happens out of the blue, or magic, or because "Amex doesn't like me!". It happens because you became a percieved risk. It may seem unfair sometimes, but it is what it is. All AA threads end up in the same speculation, but the basic point is the same. CLD and AA are at the will of the issuer. I just got my Double Cash and the welcome packet very clearly states "we may decrease your limit without notice". They are putting it right there black and white.

 

Your limit is basically a number in the system and that's it. It is not money you own or have a right to. Amex gives the whole "3x CLI" relatively easily but that doesn't mean they expect you to charge up 50k and pay minimum payments.

Message 3 of 16
icyhot
Valued Contributor

Re: So I have a theory....

Correct, however if both of those people do similar risky behavior after being approved by the same lender, I personally have noticed a trend that it's always the people with bigger limits and more exposure
Ch 7 BK discharged 12/2018
Bank Cards: NFCU Flagship Rewards $25K | NFCU Cash Rewards $20K |NFCU More Rewards Amex $17K | PenFed Power Cash $12.5K | PenFed Platinum Rewards $12.5K | PenFed Pathfinder Rewards $10K | PenFed Gold Card $7.5K | PayPal Cashback Mastercard $5K | Apple Card $3.5K
Store Cards: Bergdorf Goodman $10.5K | Neiman Marcus $7.5K | Care Credit $7K |
Scores: EX 656 | EQ 667 | TU 680


Goal Card: Amex Platinum (Amex IIB, waiting for 5 year mark)
Message 4 of 16
kdm31091
Super Contributor

Re: So I have a theory....


@icyhot wrote:
Correct, however if both of those people do similar risky behavior after being approved by the same lender, I personally have noticed a trend that it's always the people with bigger limits and more exposure

Right, which is why sometimes people should stop going for the biggest possible CLI they can get.

Message 5 of 16
NRB525
Super Contributor

Re: So I have a theory....

OP, there are many potential scenarios of why AA happens. The pair of applicants you outline are possible, and it is possible both applicants get AA.

 

Each situation of AA has a confluence of factors that made the bank nervous. That is why we should not just take what a poster says "AMEX decreased my CL and I don't know why" and start calling for a congressional hearing without asking for a lot more background about the situation and behavior of the cardholder leading up to the AA.

 

This population on MyFICO is self-selecting as credit seeking. That by itself is a marker for getting AA, so many of us are on the edge of some form of AA.

AA can also take the form of a denial. The CCC decided, before even issuing the card, that they did not want to do business with this potential customer, or to expand business with an existing customer.

 

Those of us who have been through AA realize (I hope the others realize it, maybe they don't) that AA is only a part of the credit negotiations process. It is not the end of the world. You are not your credit cards. The only thing you really have to do is pay your credit cards according to terms. Whatever the lender does outside of that, there's not much you can do about it beyond staying away from behaviors that make lenders nervous, like opening 5 new accounts in 15 days, making only minimum payments, and other activities.

High Bal Jan 2009 $116k on $146k limits 80% Util.
Oct 2014 $46k on $127k 36% util EQ 722 TU 727 EX 727
April 2018 $18k on $344k 5% util EQ 806 TU 810 EX 812
Jan 2019 $7.6k on $360k EQ 832 TU 839 EX 831
March 2021 $33k on $312k EQ 796 TU 798 EX 801
May 2021 Paid all Installments and Mortgages, one new Mortgage EQ 761 TY 774 EX 777
April 2022 EQ=811 TU=807 EX=805 - TU VS 3.0 765
Message 6 of 16
kdm31091
Super Contributor

Re: So I have a theory....


@NRB525 wrote:

OP, there are many potential scenarios of why AA happens. The pair of applicants you outline are possible, and it is possible both applicants get AA.

 

Each situation of AA has a confluence of factors that made the bank nervous. That is why we should not just take what a poster says "AMEX decreased my CL and I don't know why" and start calling for a congressional hearing without asking for a lot more background about the situation and behavior of the cardholder leading up to the AA.

 

This population on MyFICO is self-selecting as credit seeking. That by itself is a marker for getting AA, so many of us are on the edge of some form of AA.

AA can also take the form of a denial. The CCC decided, before even issuing the card, that they did not want to do business with this potential customer, or to expand business with an existing customer.

 

Those of us who have been through AA realize (I hope the others realize it, maybe they don't) that AA is only a part of the credit negotiations process. It is not the end of the world. You are not your credit cards. The only thing you really have to do is pay your credit cards according to terms. Whatever the lender does outside of that, there's not much you can do about it beyond staying away from behaviors that make lenders nervous, like opening 5 new accounts in 15 days, making only minimum payments, and other activities.


Agree 100% that it's not the end of the world.

 

I think everyone here knows the risk factors for AA, even if some people who have gotten AA may not have "pushed it" all that far. So knowing the risks and then choosing your actions from there is a personal decision. We are all adults. If you are aware of what can happen if you "push the envelope", then you take the risk.

Message 7 of 16
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: So I have a theory....


@NRB525 wrote:

 

Those of us who have been through AA realize (I hope the others realize it, maybe they don't) that AA is only a part of the credit negotiations process. It is not the end of the world. You are not your credit cards. 


Right, when the CLD (or close your card) it doesn't mean you are a bad person, or they hate you, they have just decided your current risk level is too great.   Of course, in contrast to some of the tone on this site, the opposite is also true:  getting a great SL or big CLI doesn't make you a good person either!

Message 8 of 16
FinStar
Moderator Emeritus

Re: So I have a theory....


@kdm31091 wrote:

@NRB525 wrote:

OP, there are many potential scenarios of why AA happens. The pair of applicants you outline are possible, and it is possible both applicants get AA.

 

Each situation of AA has a confluence of factors that made the bank nervous. That is why we should not just take what a poster says "AMEX decreased my CL and I don't know why" and start calling for a congressional hearing without asking for a lot more background about the situation and behavior of the cardholder leading up to the AA.

 

This population on MyFICO is self-selecting as credit seeking. That by itself is a marker for getting AA, so many of us are on the edge of some form of AA.

AA can also take the form of a denial. The CCC decided, before even issuing the card, that they did not want to do business with this potential customer, or to expand business with an existing customer.

 

Those of us who have been through AA realize (I hope the others realize it, maybe they don't) that AA is only a part of the credit negotiations process. It is not the end of the world. You are not your credit cards. The only thing you really have to do is pay your credit cards according to terms. Whatever the lender does outside of that, there's not much you can do about it beyond staying away from behaviors that make lenders nervous, like opening 5 new accounts in 15 days, making only minimum payments, and other activities.


Agree 100% that it's not the end of the world.

 

I think everyone here knows the risk factors for AA, even if some people who have gotten AA may not have "pushed it" all that far. So knowing the risks and then choosing your actions from there is a personal decision. We are all adults. If you are aware of what can happen if you "push the envelope", then you take the risk.


Exactly.

 

OP, an item to keep in mind, we are only made aware of bits and pieces of an individual's situation whenever AA occurs (sometimes information is "left out", other times the individual may be aware of the issue or may be in denial of the consequences or sometimes the individual isn't fully aware of what caused the lender's actions).  Also, this forum and other boards represent a tiny slice of the pie when it comes to the overal scheme of things, especially AA.  By the same token, the lender who takes action has a much better picture of an individual's risk than we would ever know, which is why it happened in the first place.

Message 9 of 16
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: So I have a theory....


@NRB525 wrote:

OP, there are many potential scenarios of why AA happens. The pair of applicants you outline are possible, and it is possible both applicants get AA.

 

Each situation of AA has a confluence of factors that made the bank nervous. That is why we should not just take what a poster says "AMEX decreased my CL and I don't know why" and start calling for a congressional hearing without asking for a lot more background about the situation and behavior of the cardholder leading up to the AA.

 

This population on MyFICO is self-selecting as credit seeking. That by itself is a marker for getting AA, so many of us are on the edge of some form of AA.

AA can also take the form of a denial. The CCC decided, before even issuing the card, that they did not want to do business with this potential customer, or to expand business with an existing customer.

 

Those of us who have been through AA realize (I hope the others realize it, maybe they don't) that AA is only a part of the credit negotiations process. It is not the end of the world. You are not your credit cards. The only thing you really have to do is pay your credit cards according to terms. Whatever the lender does outside of that, there's not much you can do about it beyond staying away from behaviors that make lenders nervous, like opening 5 new accounts in 15 days, making only minimum payments, and other activities.


I opened most of my cards within the past 3 weeks. I hope no AA occurs. I did have specific reasons for getting each card though. Needed to make a few purchases where I could have time to pay them off. Should have them paid within 3-4 months. Now you have me nervous though, lol.

Message 10 of 16
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