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SUB or not to SUB.... you can always upgrade if it's worth that much to you NOW vs waiting.
So, the 48 month exclusion is simply for the bonus.
This product is available to you if you do not have any Sapphire card and have not received a new cardmember bonus for any Sapphire card in the past 48 months.
So, if you get a denial there is always the option of PC another card to it is what I was getting to.
Maybe I'm missing something other than wanting the 50K points.
While it wouldn't offer everything CSR does, you might consider an AF cobrand card like Hyatt, Marriott, or United for some of the same benefits.