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AmEx Fears Second Joblessness Wave After No-Layoff Vows Expire

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Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: AmEx Fears Second Joblessness Wave After No-Layoff Vows Expire


@Revelate wrote:

@Anonymous wrote:


I think AMEX is seeing the same things we've been paying close attention to at my company. Statements like these from various CEOs:

 

We were quickly able to take out significant costs and we are being very conservative about what costs we turn back on,” Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra said during an investor event with Credit Suisse. “I believe we will come out of this with a lower cost structure that is permanent.

 

That's just the corporate speak version of what many Americans are saying about their own spending right now. "We’ve found things that we don’t need to do and things we can do more efficiently,” Barra said."

 

Only time will tell if everyone - companies and individuals alike - falls back into their previous spending habits. "Old habits die hard."


Admittedly I'm in IT, and I scratch corporate itches at that, but at least in my segment I'm not seeing it. 

Everyone says this in our industry. Won't someone think of the children? lol

 

Sure, we're all fine now, there are plenty of job opportunities out there, but 75% of the economy is consumer spending and that's what I worry about. I'm not going to become a doomsday prepper over it though.

 

I don't honestly think Amex's target demographic is going to default, that said if corporate travel and expenses don't come back, Amex is going to have a much smaller top line.


I quoted Mary Barra, who is the CEO of a Fortune 50 company (#18) , which is also one of our clients.

 

I'll worry more if the private flights to/from MKC, or out of DTW start to drop off dramatically.

Message 21 of 32
Anonymous
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Re: AmEx Fears Second Joblessness Wave After No-Layoff Vows Expire

While not totally on toipic. I was watching a show the other day about a father tellin his Son about responsibilities and getting a job, and that at his age he had a paper route. Then tell the kid you're going to coninue the Family tradtion of getting a paper route. I started to think do kids even  deliver papers anymore?  Because I remember at some point it tuned into a job for adult to suppliment their income, not to mentioon that today news etc are delivered elctronically.

 

Which also got me to thinking what kind of jobs actually exist anymore for kids that age? I definitely thnk it's quite different than what it used to be when I was growing up, mowing lawns/yard work, paper routes etc.  Though i lived in a small community built around farming and ranch wrok. So plenty to do.

 

While he landscape has definitely changed, some of those jobs still exist yet kids these days seem more enthralled with youtube careers. Though that depends on the kindness of strangers almost as much as panhandling. 

Message 22 of 32
Revelate
Moderator Emeritus

Re: AmEx Fears Second Joblessness Wave After No-Layoff Vows Expire


@Anonymous wrote:

While not totally on toipic. I was watching a show the other day about a father tellin his Son about responsibilities and getting a job, and that at his age he had a paper route. Then tell the kid you're going to coninue the Family tradtion of getting a paper route. I started to think do kids even  deliver papers anymore?  Because I remember at some point it tuned into a job for adult to suppliment their income, not to mentioon that today news etc are delivered elctronically.

 

Which also got me to thinking what kind of jobs actually exist anymore for kids that age? I definitely thnk it's quite different than what it used to be when I was growing up, mowing lawns/yard work, paper routes etc.  Though i lived in a small community built around farming and ranch wrok. So plenty to do.

 

While he landscape has definitely changed, some of those jobs still exist yet kids these days seem more enthralled with youtube careers. Though that depends on the kindness of strangers almost as much as panhandling. 


I don't honestly know.

 

I had a slew of jobs both over and under the table in my youth, interspersed with some periods I did nothing but school.

 

1) At 11 I was trying to sell rather than deliver papers haha, that didn't last long I was rubbish at it.

2) Sorted baseball cards for a sporting goods store where my mom was the accountant also at 11, here I was really good.

3) At 12 I was officiating soccer games where I did get paid.

4) Was a busboy at 14 as another gig for a local restaurant.

5) At 17 I was working on a manufacturing line making pager casings for Motorola on the night shift.

6) At 18 I was working a different manufacturing line, this time making motherboards for IBM, also on the night shift.

 

After school was falling apart on me around age 19 I was working retail at Egghead Software if anyone remembers those shops, then by age 20 I was working the phones at Dell and before I was 21 I'd dropped out of school and was working for Microsoft.

 

You can still be a paid soccer referee at 12, labor laws have gotten tighter around restaurants that might not be doable anymore and the rest probably don't exist here in the States anymore... then again if I were raising children that were about that age, I would be telling them the magic that is volunteering your time to gain experience as the pay will follow if you're competent with experience in pretty much any field.  Actually come to think of it if they showed any interest and aptitude for it I'd probably take them soccer refereeing too, lot of lessons that can be learned at a young age which are close to unique other than maybe a lifeguard which requires a pool or ocean and is highly competitive.




        
Message 23 of 32
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: AmEx Fears Second Joblessness Wave After No-Layoff Vows Expire


@Anonymous wrote:

While not totally on toipic. I was watching a show the other day about a father tellin his Son about responsibilities and getting a job, and that at his age he had a paper route. Then tell the kid you're going to coninue the Family tradtion of getting a paper route. I started to think do kids even  deliver papers anymore?  Because I remember at some point it tuned into a job for adult to suppliment their income, not to mentioon that today news etc are delivered elctronically.

 

Which also got me to thinking what kind of jobs actually exist anymore for kids that age? I definitely thnk it's quite different than what it used to be when I was growing up, mowing lawns/yard work, paper routes etc.  Though i lived in a small community built around farming and ranch wrok. So plenty to do.

 

While he landscape has definitely changed, some of those jobs still exist yet kids these days seem more enthralled with youtube careers. Though that depends on the kindness of strangers almost as much as panhandling. 


I actually forgot that kids used to deliver papers . . . haven't seen one come from anything other than vehicle in at least a decade.

 

When I was 14, my Mom had a retail merchandising job that let her bring me as a helper when they did wall resets once or twice a year.

 

In my hometown in FL there were only two main places you could work at 14/15 because labor laws were so strict - Publix and 1 franchised McDonald's. At that age, you were limited to something ridiculous like a 3 hour shift on school days, and most places just didn't want to bother. I applied and called repeatedly and finally got McD's to hire me.

 

At 16 the labor laws were much more relaxed, but I still skirted them by having two jobs. I wish I would have known about FIRE then because I would have been obsessed and would be retired now. 

Message 24 of 32
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: AmEx Fears Second Joblessness Wave After No-Layoff Vows Expire

I just saw this article and it would hit Amex's bottom line - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey-gundlach-sees-unemployment-wave-hitting-white-collar-jobs-224...

 

Billionaire bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, the CEO of $135 billion DoubleLine Capital, sees the potential for a "wave of more higher-end unemployment' hitting white-collar workers making more than $100,000 per year as employers increasingly question the value these employees bring.

Message 25 of 32
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: AmEx Fears Second Joblessness Wave After No-Layoff Vows Expire

The difference there is that they should be able to bounce back quicker/easier than someon in the retail or restaraunt field that has been hit the hardest. And likely will take a longer time to recover if some even do. Depending on their educational background line of work of course. 

What people always fail to realize when the unemployment rate is so high, is that ther are still jobs available if you have the qulifications.

 

Plenty of positions open in the tech, medical industry as well as others. Not to mention all the ones available with the Military as a private citizen.  

Message 26 of 32
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: AmEx Fears Second Joblessness Wave After No-Layoff Vows Expire


@Anonymous wrote:

I just saw this article and it would hit Amex's bottom line - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey-gundlach-sees-unemployment-wave-hitting-white-collar-jobs-224443437.html

Nice find, @Anonymous .

 

This part reminded me of a short documentary I saw about all those executives who lost their jobs due to the Great Recession (think it was focused on Long Island):

 

"“Obviously, I think these people will take another job with a pay cut,” he continued. “If you're making $100,000 and you're staring at the abyss of no income and you have de minimus savings, especially if you have a family to feed, I think that $75,000 similar job would look pretty attractive even as an interim step." 

 

The people in that documentary really had a rough time finding something similar, especially because they were in their 40s and 50s.

 

"What's more, the shift to permanent work-from-home is deflationary too if someone can do the same job in a lower-cost environment like Boise, Idaho compared to San Francisco."

 

This is a good point and I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens now.

Message 27 of 32
Revelate
Moderator Emeritus

Re: AmEx Fears Second Joblessness Wave After No-Layoff Vows Expire


@Anonymous wrote:

@Anonymous wrote:

I just saw this article and it would hit Amex's bottom line - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey-gundlach-sees-unemployment-wave-hitting-white-collar-jobs-224443437.html

Nice find, @Anonymous .

 

This part reminded me of a short documentary I saw about all those executives who lost their jobs due to the Great Recession (think it was focused on Long Island):

 

"“Obviously, I think these people will take another job with a pay cut,” he continued. “If you're making $100,000 and you're staring at the abyss of no income and you have de minimus savings, especially if you have a family to feed, I think that $75,000 similar job would look pretty attractive even as an interim step." 

 

The people in that documentary really had a rough time finding something similar, especially because they were in their 40s and 50s.

 

"What's more, the shift to permanent work-from-home is deflationary too if someone can do the same job in a lower-cost environment like Boise, Idaho compared to San Francisco."

 

This is a good point and I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens now.


On mobile but I am curious about that last point.  

I have very little to back this up just a couple of data points from my own IT career and the few others I keep in close contact with: we are seeing pay offers much more than typical and in some cases hearing more about looking for basically someone that GSD (gets, uh, stuff done) at a high level compared to others.  We never had that before it was always a race to the bottom.

 

Admittedly it's not everywhere and a mixed message implementation: for example my big giant company hired me out of the herd of contractors (something like 45% of our staff world wide are contractors) even over many in the same role and during this strange time, but our project staffing arm is looking for efficiencies everywhere without much sophistication.  This week's example: the newest project I picked up, sure get it done right, but really collaborate with our implementation partner and elevate their skills so that they can be successful on projects that don't have me as the high powered subject matter expert: it just wouldn't have worked taking that across the Pacific, got to have people in the same (or similar) time zone and that wasn't seen at all.


We'll see but I saw that second article (buddy forwarded it to me in email), another reason for me not to get into management haha.  So much easier for me to point at things and say this is exactly what I have done for you lately.

 




        
Message 28 of 32
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: AmEx Fears Second Joblessness Wave After No-Layoff Vows Expire


@Revelate wrote:


We'll see but I saw that second article (buddy forwarded it to me in email), another reason for me not to get into management haha.  So much easier for me to point at things and say this is exactly what I have done for you lately.

 


@Revelate    Well: you got up, your breathing, and online ... seems like a good start? Smiley Very Happy

Message 29 of 32
Revelate
Moderator Emeritus

Re: AmEx Fears Second Joblessness Wave After No-Layoff Vows Expire


@Anonymous wrote:

@Revelate wrote:


We'll see but I saw that second article (buddy forwarded it to me in email), another reason for me not to get into management haha.  So much easier for me to point at things and say this is exactly what I have done for you lately.

 


@Revelate    Well: you got up, your breathing, and online ... seems like a good start? Smiley Very Happy


Truth but I sadly need to write two damned documents today and I will likely be only able to finish one and will have to make apologies for the other.  Wasting too much time this week so time to log off this forum Smiley Wink

 

Oh and FINALLY I am supposed to get real Internet today.  My Verizon bill is not pretty with how much I have been using the hotspot, I stared at horror at it yesterday, then I looked at bank account, yeah totally worth it to keep the income running hahaha.

 

Just have to keep focus on what's important and execute.  I already decided to reduce hours at the second gig after the initial contract is up, I need a break again six months of this even under COVID I'm just dragging.




        
Message 30 of 32
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