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Well said Cheddar.
cheddar wrote:
700Man wrote:
Do those GUARANTEE you'll be a good credit risk? Of course not. But they increase the odds tremendously.What evidence is there of this besides the fact that it just "seems" like it should be the case? Do you think the numbers crunchers at FI never considered this? Wouldn't you imagine that all sorts of variables have been run through the wringer in order to generate the scoring algorithm?I guarantee that FI has better evidence regarding the predictiveness of any particular variable than you or I do.
Interesting example, but I'm curious why you chose Goldman Sachs to illustrate your point. Why not some other large, publicly traded company like Bear Stearns?
700Man wrote:
Guys:
(1) If you work for Goldman Sachs instead of Mike's Financial Services, sorry, you're a better credit risk IMO working for Goldman Sachs.
700Man wrote:
Sidewinder, income most absolutely SHOULD be included in a credit score. How can you say that income doesn't relate to willingness/ability to pay? That's absurd.Income has NOTHING to do with willingness to pay. Yes it has to do with the ability to pay, but the lender judges that. Your credit history and/or score has nothing to do and is not there to reflect your ability to pay, it is there to reflect your willingness to pay. Credit reports and scoring is all about how you MANAGE your money not how MUCH money you have.
Yes, a guy making $500,000 can decide to stiff all his/her credit card companies on a lark. And someone making $35,000 can keep making minimum payments that consume 30% of his/her after-tax paycheck. BUT HOW LIKELY IS EACH ONE ?How likely each is to happen would require a great deal of research. More research than I have time for. However, income has nothing to do with how likely each of those are to happen. A persons circumstances and morals have to do with that.
As I said above, this is about PROBABILITIES and forecasting LIKELIHOODS. Income most certainly should be a factor in FICO scoring since, in fact, the best scores are positively correlated with income (and also assets, home location, etc).What do you have to back this theory? I know people who make WAY more than I do and have as bad or worse scores than myself. In fact one of them owns a substantial amount of land and other assets.I also know people who make less than I do and have way better scores than myself.
Do those GUARANTEE you'll be a good credit risk? Of course not. But they increase the odds tremendously.If you don't think so, ask yourself this: if you were a lender, and were told to make a home mortage loan 100% TOTALLY BLIND, and the only thing you knew was that one applicant lived and wanted a mortgage for his/her house in the South Bronx, and the other wanted his/her mortgage for Great Neck, Long Island (a very posh place), which would YOU lend to ????Unrealistic. Now you are basically saying where one lives has something to do with their credit risk/willingness to pay?
Message Edited by 700Man on 04-25-2008 09:01 PM
700Man wrote:
Not to mention that their scoring system was totally given the end-around by savvy scammers who manipulated the scoring system thereby qualifying for mortgages they had no business even sniffing. Someone with FICOs in the 500's getting a $700,000 mortgage? Please....
700Man wrote:
Cheddar, I mis-typed....I meant they were really people whose scores SHOULD have been in the 500's or 600's and instead were graded closer to 720-750. People games the scoring system, lied, committed fraud, and also used that 'authorized signer/borrow someone's credit score' rig quite frequently since 2005.This is part of the reason that FICO is being updated. To eliminate people using someone else's good credit in order to make theirs look more desirable.
I spoke to the president of a large local bank. He told me that FICO used to be EXTREMELY reliable for years -- decades, really -- when credit was much less ubiquitous, people felt an obligation to pay off debts, and they didn't go overboard. But the whole thing began to unravel bigtime about 2002-03 when lending and scoring systems were gamed.
I don't blame Fair Isaac -- but I do think that they would be doing the right thing for both good and bad credits by getting the scores more accurate. I think including more variables is a means toward that end. If the variables I cited don't work, eliminate them or underweight them. But they DO work -- and maybe that's why they aren't being included.