TT, is there a tentative data that you know of where VS 4.0 may be put in use?
iv, good points above regarding how some hypothetical changes to VS 4.0 could result in scoring events that run converse to current FICO models. Interesting stuff to think about, for sure.
Well, they are pushing VS4.0 pretty hard as a replacement for the current "mortgage score" EQ5/TU4/EX2 set:
"VantageScore 4.0 is well suited to the U.S. mortgage market, thanks to its unsurpassed scoring accuracy, consistency across CRCs, and ability to score millions of creditworthy consumers who cannot obtain credit scores when competing models are used. VantageScore is committed to promoting credit scoring competition in the mortgage market and to changing guidelines at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that process the vast majority of U.S. home mortgages. The GSEs currently require use of an outdated FICO model. As a testament to the advancements made on VantageScore 4.0, the new model offers predictive performance lift across all credit industries, with 2.8% predictive lift overall in loan originations and a 5.4% lift in mortgage originations."
Of course when/if Freddie and Fannie change, (and to what model)... who knows?