Or does it?
The general concensus here, and mostly for good reasons, is that score simulators aren't accurate and cannot be trusted.
But on 7/7/24, after I purchased an Experian 1B from MF, the score simulator was whispering sweet nothings to me, telling me things I wanted to hear, and I wanted to believe it, and honestly, I mostly did, becuase it made sense according to my understanding of Fico 8.
I was AZEO and had been gardening for several months, and was planning to continue through this month, 3/2024. So now in retrospect, was the simulator trustworthy, or was I disappointed?
Here are the results, comparing AZEO scores to AZEO scores:
Month | Predicted | Actual | Predicted Score | Actual Score | Assumed/Guessed Reason(s) |
JUL | 0 | 0 | 774 | 774 | |
SEP | 0 | +7 | 774 | 781 | Scorable Inqs 3 → 2 |
OCT | +5 | 0 | 779 | 781 | |
NOV | +10 | +12 | 789 | 793 | Oldest Revolver turns 24 months (+9); Scorable Inqs 2 → 1 (+3) |
FEB | +5 | 0 | 794 | 793 | |
MAR | +20 | +23 | 814 | 816 | Youngest revolver turns 12 months (+20); Inqs drop to zero (+3) |
NOV | +10 | ? | 824 | ? | Oldest revolver turns 3 yrs |
- The predicted 5 points for Oct actually came in Sept and it was 7 points.
- The predicted 10 for Nov was actually 12 that came in two chunks, +9 (on 11/1) then +3 (on actual inq date)
- The +5 for Feb didn't materialize, but the +20 for Mar was actually +23 in two chunks, +20 (on 3/1) and +3 (on actual inq date)
- The total cumulative prediction through March was +40, the actual was +42
- We'll see what happens in Nov 2025, but I won't be gardening, so attribution of changes likely will be less clear.
Overall, I'd say the myFICO Simulator is fairly accurate and generally can be trusted. I honestly believe the small errors are inserted intentionally to obfuscate the functioning of the model, but obviously I'm only guessing here.
Bottom line: I think the simulator is good. What do you think?
