Scale 1-10

[Creditrecipe]

On a Scale of 1-10, how hard is this housing market going to collapse?

[pizzadude]

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@Creditrecipe wrote:

On a Scale of 1-10, how hard is this housing market going to collapse?

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I think it will vary widely by location.  Some markets will remain hot, albiet slower than they have been due to rising interest rates, but won't be an issue for those buyers who can still pay cash.

[CreditCuriosity]

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@pizzadude wrote:

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@Creditrecipe wrote:

On a Scale of 1-10, how hard is this housing market going to collapse?

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I think it will vary widely by location.  Some markets will remain hot, albiet slower than they have been due to rising interest rates, but won't be an issue for those buyers who can still pay cash.

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Yeppers what you said.. some markets will remain hot and others will not..  Alot of cash buyers still out there regardless of interest rates.  Overall as a whole it will slow down imho.  2008 and 2022 are two different things going on.

[ptatohed]

As CC said, this is different than 2008.  There won't be a crash.  There will be some leveling off and some slight cooling in prices for a while.  Home prices shot up too fast too quick so there will be some cooling.  The number of cash buyers doesn't determine housing prices, the market does.  

[wasCB14]

My part of SoCal: High demand and low supply.

Nationwide: Prices may cool a bit, but inflation is destroying cash and stocks aren't cheap. I don't see a selling frenzy on the investment side. At least at far as long-term tenancy properties. Short-term rentals (ala AirBNB) could have some trouble from high supply.

[805orbust]

Bloodbath is coming. We'll get through it and prices will be higher 10 years from now but it'd be nice to revisit this thread in 24 months.

[wasCB14]

I'm going to keep this vague and general to try to stay on the right side of the "no politics" line:

Don't dismiss the possibility of further government intervention in the housing market.

[Bill77]

There will be no hot markets left anywhere.  And just like after 2008, prices will bounce around a bottom for several years.

[805orbust]

@Bill77 and @wasCB14 , I agree wholeheartedly.  It's going to be another 24-36 months before we find a bottom... imho of course

[wasCB14]

Which markets do people think are most overvalued?

In my neighborhood in the LA suburbs I see tons of cars parked on the street in residential areas. I see kids moving back in with their parents, and parents moving in with their kids. The number of people per bedroom seems like it must be quite high. Housing is expensive, but I can't really see prices here falling a lot when any available housing attracts so much interest due to current undesirably large households.