AAoRA threshold at 9 years???(Updated)

Anonymous · ‎08-13-2020

(Update: I don't really believe anymore that 9 years is a threshold for AAoRA, see Update )

From 5/22 to 5/24 my DW's Ex Fico 8 changed from 807 to 800. After hours of analysing her (and mine) credit reports I believe that the drop in score was caused by her AAoRA changing from above 9 years to below 9 years.

Here are some of the gritty details: For the last three months I have been monitoring our Ex fico scores on an (almost) daily basis. I have been able to explain most scores changes, but I was drawing a blank for the Fico 8 change from 5/22 to 5/24 (sorry, 5/23 is one of the few days I did not pull our scores).

Me and my DW's are authorized users on almost all of each others card and so our reports are almost identical. Both of our scorecards on 5/24 were clean/old/thick/new. (But if I ignore my AU accounts, my scorecard was clean/old/thick/not new on 5/22)

Both of us have no open installment loans. I have one closed installment loan, DW has none. Correction: I actually have two closed installment loans, a closed car loan and a closed home equity loan).

There were two changes from 5/22 to 5/24:

1) A new credit card appeared on our reports (I'm the owner, DW is AU). The utilization of the new card on 5/24 was 2.56%

2) The utilization of one credit card (I'm AU, DW is owner) did raise from 12.95% to 15.05%.

My Ex F8 increased from 788 to 789. DW's dropped from 807 to 800.

From watching the scores for the last three months, I do know that our Ex F8 scores do not react to the number of accounts with balance (we went from over 60% down to 20% and back to 60% of accounts with balance without ever causing a change in Ex F8. (Although Ex F8B changed whenever 25% or 50% were crossed)

I am 99% certain DW's score dropped was not caused by a change in aggregate util, since very similar changes at other times have not caused a change in Ex F8.

For both of us counting AU accounts: AoYA=AoYRA and AoYA changed from 7 to 1 month.

Not counting AU accounts, my AoYRA changed from 32 to 1 month and DW's stayed at 7 months. So there is a possibility that I changed scorecards from 5/22 to 5/24, but that seems unlikely since my Ex F8 only changed by 1 point.

My AAoA changed from 109.4 to 106.3 months, DW's from 110.4 to 107.0

My AAoRA changed from 114.1 to 110.7 months, DW's from 110.4 to 107.0

So in three cases, a possible 9 year (=108 months) threshold was crossed. But since my score did raise rather than drop, it seems to me that the drop in my DW's Ex F8 was caused by her AAoRA changing from above 9 years to below 9 years.

Anonymous · ‎08-13-2020

PS: I'm sure @Anonymous will ask me, whether I did the AZ-test to determine whether the AU-accounts count. No, I have not. I'm carrying $45000 of 0% balance on our credit card accounts which I'm not willing to payoff. But currently it seems to me that the AU-accounts are excluded in some calculations, but included in others.

Anonymous · ‎08-13-2020

@Anonymous wrote:
PS: I'm sure @Anonymous will ask me, whether I did the AZ-test to determine whether the AU-accounts count. No, I have not. I'm carrying $45000 of 0% balance on our credit card accounts which I'm not willing to payoff. But currently it seems to me that the AU-accounts are excluded in some calculations, but included in others.

@AnonymousNo, I believe the AU accounts are counting. I'll post in a minute when I remember why, LOL. DW's profile is more sensitive due to lack of a loan; mix. Nope, not aggregate utilization either, per se, tho involved. Oh, the reason you see AU util counting someplace and not counting in the other is because Experian offers 2 places to view util, one is with, and the other is without.

Let me take a guess here and you tell me if I'm right. The new card's CL caused your Ag. util to increase TCL and cross a threshold didn't it?

Anonymous · ‎08-13-2020

@Anonymous wrote:
@Anonymous wrote:
PS: I'm sure @Anonymous will ask me, whether I did the AZ-test to determine whether the AU-accounts count. No, I have not. I'm carrying $45000 of 0% balance on our credit card accounts which I'm not willing to payoff. But currently it seems to me that the AU-accounts are excluded in some calculations, but included in others.
@AnonymousNo, I believe the AU accounts are counting. I'll post in a minute when I remember why, LOL. DW's profile is more sensitive due to lack of a loan; mix. Nope, not aggregate utilization either, per se, tho involved. Yep, you both switched cards to a new account card from a no new account card; not a possibility. Oh, the reason you see AU util counting someplace and not counting in the other is because Experiian offers 2 places to view util, one is with, and the other is without.

Sorry, I do not pay any attention to the util calculation of Experian. Anybody who rounds 9.2% Util to 9% has lost my respect.

Let me take a guess here and you tell me if I'm right. The new card's CL caused your Ag. util to cross a threshold didn't it?

I really don't think so. I compute the Ag util before and after in four ways. With AU cards and without. With my Heloc and without. No threshold was crossed, except if AU cards are exluded and the Heloc is included then the Ag Util changed from 4.87 to 4.96. So the 5% threshold for "new" scorecards was crossed. But from 6/1 to 6/2 it changed from 4.96 to 4.89 and her Ex Fico score did not change. No after numbers other than util changed on that . So if 5% is a threshold she should have gained points.

Anonymous · ‎08-13-2020

Oh now I remember. If your AU accounts were not counting, then you would’ve experienced scorecard reassignment to a new account scorecard and lost 10 or 15 points.

Since you did not, that tells me the authorised user accounts are in fact counting. Again I believe the difference is because she has no instalment loan open or closed on her record and she is therefore more sensitive and therefore another new account had the different effect on her profile.

Anonymous · ‎08-14-2020

@Anonymous wrote:
Let me take a guess here and you tell me if I'm right. The new card's CL caused your Ag. util to increase TCL and cross a threshold didn't it?

I'm not sure what the bolded part is saying. Also I just realized that you were asking about my Ag Util and not DW's. The four changes (with/without AU/Heloc ) of my Ag Util were 8.17 to 8.15, 9.80 to 9.75, 8.13 to 8.03, 10.69 to 10.52. So no Thresholds passed here.

Total Credit Limit even without ACs and Heloc is above $200,000 and the CL of the new card was only $7,000. No multiple of $50,000 was crosssed. So I doubt TCL has anything to do with it.

(Edit: I fixed a typo. The CL of the new card is $7,000, not $70000).

Anonymous · ‎08-14-2020

@Anonymous wrote:
Oh now I remember. If your AU accounts were not counting, then you would’ve experienced scorecard reassignment to a new account scorecard and lost 10 or 15 points.

Since you did not, that tells me the authorised user accounts are in fact counting. Again I believe the difference is because she has no instalment loan open or closed on her record and she is therefore more sensitive and therefore another new account had the different effect on her profile.

It's to late for me to analyze this. Also in a couple of days I might cross the 9% Ag Util threshold counting my AU cards, but staying above 9% not counting the AU's. So I might wait until then to respond.

dragontears · ‎08-14-2020

Just wanted to point out if she has no loans on her report it is impossible to say it is AAoRA and not AAOA......

Tonya-E · ‎08-14-2020

There has to be something to this. My 850 score is with TU. It is the only one of the bureaus showing my AAOA at 9 years & 2 months. EQ & EX are a few months short. I did a simulator and it shows both EX & EQ being at 850 by Nov. which should put me at the 9 yr. mark for those. That is just with aging the accounts - nothing else. I literally just noticed this today when I was reviewing my reports. EQ and TU are nearly identical but there is 1 account discrepancy. I did a spreadsheet to take a look. EQ sits at 8 years 11 months. EX sits at 8 years 9 months.

Anonymous · ‎08-14-2020

@Anonymous wrote:
@Anonymous wrote:
Let me take a guess here and you tell me if I'm right. The new card's CL caused your Ag. util to increase TCL and cross a threshold didn't it?
I'm not sure what the bolded part is saying. Also I just realized that you were asking about my Ag Util and not DW's. The four changes (with/without AU/Heloc ) of my Ag Util were 8.17 to 8.15, 9.80 to 9.75, 8.13 to 8.03, 10.69 to 10.52. So no Thresholds passed here.

Total Credit Limit even without ACs and Heloc is above $200,000 and the CL of the new card was only $7,000. No multiple of $50,000 was crosssed. So I doubt TCL has anything to do with it.

(Edit: I fixed a typo. The CL of the new card is $7,000, not $70000).

@Anonymous Based on the above, I think you are absolutely correct in your initial analysis!

It is still true that her profile is more sensitive having no loans, but I think you're absolutely correct and I thank you for bringing this to my attention!

@dragontears Is correct that AAoA=AAoRA will be the same for she her with no loan on record but the metric that I believe gave points is AAoRA, and @Tonya-E 's DPs (thank you too!) seem to confirm it! Also, AAoA is believed to max out at 7 years 8 months, so I doubt that that is a factor.

This is exactly what we need so we can start finding these thresholds I'm so glad that you posted!