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Conflated EX AOYRA 1 year mark

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Revelate
Moderator Emeritus

Conflated EX AOYRA 1 year mark

I will put better data in this post later but the highlight was EX FICO 8 Classic 801 -> 829: +28.

 

Older models didn't react as strongly and new accounts are still in the reason code list for EX FICO 2 at least.

 

The Amex hasn't landed yet I am expecting that sometime this month, but question is if I lose 28 points when it hits or more, should not be any average age changes but I will do the math for both AAOA and AAORA for completeness.

 

Edit: weirdness ensued when the Amex reported.

 




        
Message 1 of 52
51 REPLIES 51
Revelate
Moderator Emeritus

Re: EX AOYRA 1 year mark

Better data, my apologies took so long to get back to this:

 

Pretty much as expected, big changes in FICO 8, smaller ones in others.  Weird thing though, the New Accounts reason code moved up the list rather than down on FICO 3.  Something weird there, I don't know what.  Lost reason codes on all the FICO 8 scores though with the change, oh well.

 

I have an Amex Hilton card that's due to report probably sometime mid to late April, will update this thread again once it lands.  I did have an inquiry fall out of scoring though on 4/2, I don't think I saw a score shift there but I'll check.  I also have another on 4/28 and expecting a skew there if I didn't get one yesterday.

 

Other current (4/1) aging metrics:

 

AAOA: 67 months

AAORA: 68 months

 

Scores:   
 3/31/204/1/20Change
EX FICO 880182928
EX FICO 8 AU81285139
EX FICO 8 BC82986031
EX FICO 27727808
EX FICO 2 AU8028097
EX FICO 2 BC79080313
EX FICO 37727775
    
New Accounts Reason Code:  
 3/31/204/1/20Change
EX FICO 8N/AN/AN/A
EX FICO 8 AU2N/AN/A
EX FICO 8 BC2N/AN/A
EX FICO 2440
EX FICO 2 AU440
EX FICO 2 BC341
EX FICO 321-1



        
Message 2 of 52
Revelate
Moderator Emeritus

Re: EX AOYRA 1 year mark

So, conflated.

 

I went past 1 year AOYRA and got non-trivial points on FICO 8 and movement everywhere else.  Pretty expected.

 

Here's the funny thing, I just had the Amex Hilton report, and I lost fewer points.  Haven't done the full data capture yet but I saw the highlight: FICO 8 -21... which is flatly different than before.  Somewhere I gained 7 points.

 

The only thing I can think of, is I had an inquiry from 4/2/19.  I didn't see a score change on 4/2 or 4/3 but yesterday when the Amex landed I didn't lose all the points I'd gained.  I haven't strenuously tested inquiries on EX but do these get excluded by month as well or somehow Date + 1 year + 2 days?  That's the only thing I can think of... for that matter I had another inquiry 4/28/19, both credit cards from national banks (Chase, Citi) so I don't think there's anything weird like the CU funkiness I saw on some EX scores, these should both count full monty.  7 points sounds like inquiries too TBH.

 

I know conclusively EQ FICO 5 it wasn't by month, and I'm pretty sure not on TU FICO 4 either, but I have less useful data on that front for FICO 8 and no longer have access to my old Scorewatch data.

 

I also need to go back to when my mortgage inquiry counted, but something be strange here and I'd welcome thoughts.

 

Jeez even weirder: FICO 2 went 772 -> 780 and now -> 788 as of today.  New accounts factor in the presence of inquiries to one of TT's posts?




        
Message 3 of 52
SouthJamaica
Mega Contributor

Re: EX AOYRA 1 year mark


@Revelate wrote:

So, conflated.

 

I went past 1 year AOYRA and got non-trivial points on FICO 8 and movement everywhere else.  Pretty expected.

 

Here's the funny thing, I just had the Amex Hilton report, and I lost fewer points.  Haven't done the full data capture yet but I saw the highlight: FICO 8 -21... which is flatly different than before.  Somewhere I gained 7 points.

 

The only thing I can think of, is I had an inquiry from 4/2/19.  I didn't see a score change on 4/2 or 4/3 but yesterday when the Amex landed I didn't lose all the points I'd gained.  I haven't strenuously tested inquiries on EX but do these get excluded by month as well or somehow Date + 1 year + 2 days?  That's the only thing I can think of... for that matter I had another inquiry 4/28/19, both credit cards from national banks (Chase, Citi) so I don't think there's anything weird like the CU funkiness I saw on some EX scores, these should both count full monty.  7 points sounds like inquiries too TBH.

 

I know conclusively EQ FICO 5 it wasn't by month, and I'm pretty sure not on TU FICO 4 either, but I have less useful data on that front for FICO 8 and no longer have access to my old Scorewatch data.

 

I also need to go back to when my mortgage inquiry counted, but something be strange here and I'd welcome thoughts.

 

Jeez even weirder: FICO 2 went 772 -> 780 and now -> 788 as of today.  New accounts factor in the presence of inquiries to one of TT's posts?


On what do you base your belief that age of newest revolving account is different than age of newest account? As near as I can tell a new installment account drags me down the same as a new revolving account.


Total revolving limits 741200 (620700 reporting) FICO 8: EQ 701 TU 704 EX 685

Message 4 of 52
dragontears
Senior Contributor

Re: Conflated EX AOYRA 1 year mark

I recently observed something similar.

 

Please note I don't monitor my scores on a daily basis nor do I practice AZEO, so it is not a "clean" data point in the strictest sense as it is based on monthly score monitoring. 

 

However, my TU score through Discover has been 804 to 806 for more than 6 months indicating my score is stable. 

Last month my youngest account turned 1 year old and now my TU score is 825. I am still not AZEO, my total utilization is still 2-3%.

 

My youngest account was not a credit card though it is a HELOC that doesn't seem to effect my revolving utilization (my score didn't move when I took the HELOC to >50%).

Message 5 of 52
SouthJamaica
Mega Contributor

Re: Conflated EX AOYRA 1 year mark


@dragontears wrote:

I recently observed something similar.

 

Please note I don't monitor my scores on a daily basis nor do I practice AZEO, so it is not a "clean" data point in the strictest sense as it is based on monthly score monitoring. 

 

However, my TU score through Discover has been 804 to 806 for more than 6 months indicating my score is stable. 

Last month my youngest account turned 1 year old and now my TU score is 825. I am still not AZEO, my total utilization is still 2-3%.

 

My youngest account was not a credit card though it is a HELOC that doesn't seem to effect my revolving utilization (my score didn't move when I took the HELOC to >50%).


Yeah, I don't know what evidence there is to back up this new theory that it's "Age of Youngest Revolving Account" rather than "Age of Youngest Account". In my experience it's age of newest account -- revolving or installment. As near as I can tell, the metric comes from the report of a single forum member based on his measurement of his personal profile.


Total revolving limits 741200 (620700 reporting) FICO 8: EQ 701 TU 704 EX 685

Message 6 of 52
dragontears
Senior Contributor

Re: Conflated EX AOYRA 1 year mark


@SouthJamaica wrote:

@dragontears wrote:

I recently observed something similar.

 

Please note I don't monitor my scores on a daily basis nor do I practice AZEO, so it is not a "clean" data point in the strictest sense as it is based on monthly score monitoring. 

 

However, my TU score through Discover has been 804 to 806 for more than 6 months indicating my score is stable. 

Last month my youngest account turned 1 year old and now my TU score is 825. I am still not AZEO, my total utilization is still 2-3%.

 

My youngest account was not a credit card though it is a HELOC that doesn't seem to effect my revolving utilization (my score didn't move when I took the HELOC to >50%).


Yeah, I don't know what evidence there is to back up this new theory that it's "Age of Youngest Revolving Account" rather than "Age of Youngest Account". In my experience it's age of newest account -- revolving or installment. As near as I can tell, the metric comes from the report of a single forum member based on his measurement of his personal profile.


I don't buy the theory either since data with n=1 can't be analyzed,  also last October when my youngest card turned 1 year my score didn't change significantly based off of monthly monitoring  

Message 7 of 52
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: EX AOYRA 1 year mark

@Revelate it’s 365 days on fico eight. But remember the anomaly you found for leap year for version two.

Yeah I don’t think the threshold is 12 months on version two. And that is extremely strange about three.

And @SouthJamaica old friend, all you Gotta do is go 12 months to test it.

@dragontears What do you call significant? And do you know which scorecard you’re on? Because how significant gains/losses sre depend on scorecard and profile.
Message 8 of 52
SouthJamaica
Mega Contributor

Re: EX AOYRA 1 year mark


@Anonymous wrote:
@Revelateit’s 365 days on fico eight. But remember the anomaly you found for leap year for version two.

Yeah I don’t think the threshold is 12 months on version two. And that is extremely strange about three.

And @SouthJamaica old friend, all you Gotta do is go 12 months to test it.

@dragontearsWhat do you call significant? And do you know which scorecard you’re on? Because how significant gains/losses sre depend on scorecard and profile.

I'd have to go 12 months without a new revolving or installment account. Then I'd have to wait a month and add an installment account. At that point, if the needle moved down, I'd have disproved your theory. If it didn't move, then it would seemingly have confirmed your theory but I'd have to wait another month, and add a revolving account. And then, if the needle moved down because of that then I would have debunked your hypothesis.

 

All the while everything else in my profile would have had to remain unchanged.

 

Frankly, I'm not able to perform an experiment like that, and I truly doubt that even you -- with your iron will, deep scientific acumen, and endless budget for MyFICO full reports -- are able either.

 

So I'm left with this: I can say (a) anecdotally that (b) it appears to me that (c) in my profile when any new account -- revolving or installment -- is added and (d) the 'front end fluff'  (a term I first heard from @Anonymous) of Experian's software shows that my age of newest account has been reset --> my FICO 8 score takes a hit. And yes that makes me think that there is no such thing as "Age of Youngest Revolving Account", only "Age of Youngest Account". So shoot me.


Total revolving limits 741200 (620700 reporting) FICO 8: EQ 701 TU 704 EX 685

Message 9 of 52
dragontears
Senior Contributor

Re: EX AOYRA 1 year mark

Sorry, I should have defined significant in this case I  would say >10 points would be significant and I saw a 2 point difference (I think we can all agree 2 points is not a significant score change).

9/19: 800

10/19: 802

11/19: 800

 

My TU profile:

18 open accounts, 8 closed accounts 

Open accounts are: auto, mortgage, HELOC, 2 personal loans, RLOC (from US bank), 12 open credit cards (2/24).

Oldest account 22.5 years

1 HP from 11/18

 

Let me know if I forgot anything, I am waiting for my coffee to finish brewing 

 


@Anonymous wrote:
@Revelateit’s 365 days on fico eight. But remember the anomaly you found for leap year for version two.

Yeah I don’t think the threshold is 12 months on version two. And that is extremely strange about three.

And @SouthJamaica old friend, all you Gotta do is go 12 months to test it.

@dragontearsWhat do you call significant? And do you know which scorecard you’re on? Because how significant gains/losses sre depend on scorecard and profile.

 

Message 10 of 52
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