Credit Scores Stuck...big time!!!!

[sarge12]

I just do not understand why my scores are so boringly stuck...all of them!!! The following chart is from Experian Fico 08, and covers the past 13 months. The lowest the score has been is 806, the highest is 810. Part of the time I was getting new credit cards...about 6 in this period. Got 1 new auto loan in July. It does not seem to matter what I do, or do not do, it does not budge anymore. The other 2 CRA's are similar. I have now been gardening 2.5 months...score increased 1 measly point. I do always keep util., at less than 5%, and always pay all revolving accounts in full. At this rate, I will reach 850 in about 25 years I guess. Has anyone else experienced scores that are this stuck?

[805orbust]

Sarge... first world problem?    Kidding. Just a thought but how coarse/fine is your monitoring of how your accounts are reporting? Util could be fine, however isn't there a "sweet spot" for how many cards show balances and how many report as an outlier in addition to straight utilization?  In addition I would think that once you get some age on your new cc/car loans and get the inq's in the rear view that you'd see some more movement.  Probably splitting hairs here with degrees of excellence.

That's a case of boredom that I could live with  

[sarge12]

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@805orbust wrote:

Sarge... first world problem?    Kidding. Just a thought but how coarse/fine is your monitoring of how your accounts are reporting? Util could be fine, however isn't there a "sweet spot" for how many cards show balances and how many report as an outlier in addition to straight utilization?  In addition I would think that once you get some age on your new cc/car loans and get the inq's in the rear view that you'd see some more movement.  Probably splitting hairs here with degrees of excellence.

That's a case of boredom that I could live with  

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I almost constantly monitor my credit and use every trick to optimize, but I am shooting for 850...why?...Because my health issues prevent me from doing anything meaningful in life, so it is something to do, that i might can do. I can not work, travel is more a torture, than something enjoyable. I watch TV, post on forums, and occasionally go to the grocery store on a good day...which is rare! It is probably good that it will not move anyway...at least until then I have a goal in life. I sure miss work!

[newhis]

You are in that point where the scores doesn't move much no matter what you do. New HP, no problem, a little lower AAoA, whatever, new loan, nothing changes.

I think the only thing left to do is garden. I have seen some points move when you only have HP older than 1 year. I guess if your loans are below 50, 30 then 10% from original you will see some increase too.

If you keep getting cards/loans you will not see 820+ any time soon. This is just my guess.

I have seen several 820+ users that have more than 1 year in the garden. Good luck.

[Thomas_Thumb]

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@sarge12 wrote:

I just do not understand why my scores are so boringly stuck...all of them!!! The following chart is from Experian Fico 08, and covers the past 13 months. The lowest the score has been is 806, the highest is 810. Part of the time I was getting new credit cards...about 6 in this period. Got 1 new auto loan in July. It does not seem to matter what I do, or do not do, it does not budge anymore. The other 2 CRA's are similar. I have now been gardening 2.5 months...score increased 1 measly point. I do always keep util., at less than 5%, and always pay all revolving accounts in full. At this rate, I will reach 850 in about 25 years I guess. Has anyone else experienced scores that are this stuck?

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Sarge12,

I think you are experiencing classic buffer syndrome in multiple scoring categories relative to your scorecard. I have seen quite a few posters with stable scores and many of them had scores in the 700s. The most often seen example is the dirty to clean transition where someone may be stuck in the 740s to 750s and then jump to 840s to 850.

My take is you have reached saturation point for max points in 3 of 5 primary Fico 08 caregories - exceptions being new credit and credit mix.

Not sure what you have for open installment loans, I'm guessing none prior to the new auto loan. If you had one, your car is the largest one by an order of magnitude. Best I can tell is potential value of an open installment loan is 35 points - PRIOR TO THE AUTO LOAN you were missing out on those points. As a matter of speaking you receive points when the installment AUTO loan became active (open). However, value of the open loan is discounted because it is a new account and has a high B/L ratio.  As your newest account ages and the B/L ratio drops past certain levels, your score will rise. 

Here is an example:

Score is 810 for an aged profile with closed installment loans on file:

1) Get a new installment loan - add 35 points for loan

 - deduct 30 points for high B/L (above 90% or above 70%)

 - deduct 5 points for inquiry

 - deduct 5 or 10 points for new account in your case as it appears you did not have other "new" accounts

2) New short term impact of the above action: Gain 35 points, lose 40 points, new score at over 90% B/L is 805

3) Impact of loan over time with gardening and paydown

 - New credit surpasses 90 days => Score increases 5 to 10 points Nov/Dec

 - Loan B/L drops below 70% (could be different but I'm a 70% fan) => gain 10 points

 - Inquiry reaches 12 months age => gain 5 more points

 - Auto loan or aggregate of loans drops below 9% B/L => gain 25 points

New score after the above sequence is now potentially 840 to 845 based on illustrative data. Again, it's just my take on how things might be playing out.

Sarge, I would anticipate your score could be in the 820 range by year end if you continue to garden. If you want to accelerate impact just pay down your Auto loan to 9% and set up a independent payment plan with your family member. In that case, your score could be in the 840 range by year end.

If your goal is 850, don't play the credit card game of opening accounts to receive incentives. I can't recall if you have opened any CCs in the last year. You currently should have enough accounts and sufficient oldest account age and for maximizing Fico 08 score. Really, all you should need for open accounts is three credit cards and an installment loan. An AAoA of 8 years or higher is adequate - can't recall where you are on this one.

[SouthJamaica]

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@sarge12 wrote:

I just do not understand why my scores are so boringly stuck...all of them!!! The following chart is from Experian Fico 08, and covers the past 13 months. The lowest the score has been is 806, the highest is 810. Part of the time I was getting new credit cards...about 6 in this period. Got 1 new auto loan in July. It does not seem to matter what I do, or do not do, it does not budge anymore. The other 2 CRA's are similar. I have now been gardening 2.5 months...score increased 1 measly point. I do always keep util., at less than 5%, and always pay all revolving accounts in full. At this rate, I will reach 850 in about 25 years I guess. Has anyone else experienced scores that are this stuck?

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Without more information we would just be guessing as to where the room for improvement is.

If I knew:

-# of revolving accounts, statement balances, credit limits

-# of open installment accounts, balances, face amount of loan

-AAoA, newest account, oldest account

-inquiries during past 12 mos

I could probably tell you where the action is on getting your scores even higher than their present lofty position

[sarge12]

Some added info....I have two existing installment loans, the new one 19300/20200 approx. plus 8000/17000 approx. I also added 4 new credit cards in last 6 months to make a total of 15 credit cards...all of them premium cards. My concern is not that it is not moving up. I actually expected adding 4 credit cards, and the auto loan to cause a rather large drop in the score, but as you can see, the score has only varied 4 points even with all the new credit. It just does not seem to matter to my score what I do, and if this is the case, the gardening will also have no effect. I also have 30000/75000 on a primary mortgage. AAoA is 5 years...Oldest account 21 years. Utilization actually stays about 2%, and I always PIF.

[Thomas_Thumb]

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@sarge12 wrote:

Some added info....I have two existing installment loans, the new one 19300/20200 approx. plus 8000/17000 approx. I also added 4 new credit cards in last 6 months to make a total of 15 credit cards...all of them premium cards. My concern is not that it is not moving up. I actually expected adding 4 credit cards, and the auto loan to cause a rather large drop in the score, but as you can see, the score has only varied 4 points even with all the new credit. It just does not seem to matter to my score what I do, and if this is the case, the gardening will also have no effect. I also have 30000/75000 on a primary mortgage. AAoA is 5 years...Oldest account 21 years. Utilization actually stays about 2%, and I always PIF.

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Thanks for the added info.

I believe your mortgage is providing a buffer for aggregate installment loan B/L. Based on your data above, your B/L without the new loan would be 41% and with the new loan is 51%. I don't believe there are any thresholds for aggregate B/L in the below 70% to 30% range and likely in the 70% to 10% range. Theoretically, I could add a car loan of $40k without impacting my score due to the buffering effect my mortgage would have on aggregate B/L - according to the simulator. In this case I think the simulator is accurate it can handle one factor at a time (OFAT) ok. 

Given your AAoA still remained above 5 years, the primary negative impact on score in your situation, would be the added inquiries - IMO. Not sure how your CC inquiries were distributed among your CRAs but, I would have expected a likely 5 to 10 pont drop depending on how many INQs each CRA got. I continue to believe INQs are binned into QTY groups - score would only impacted when changing bins.

Are your scores down a little from before the CC spree on CRAs with at least 2 added inquiries?

[SouthJamaica]

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@sarge12 wrote:

Some added info....I have two existing installment loans, the new one 19300/20200 approx. plus 8000/17000 approx. I also added 4 new credit cards in last 6 months to make a total of 15 credit cards...all of them premium cards. My concern is not that it is not moving up. I actually expected adding 4 credit cards, and the auto loan to cause a rather large drop in the score, but as you can see, the score has only varied 4 points even with all the new credit. It just does not seem to matter to my score what I do, and if this is the case, the gardening will also have no effect. I also have 30000/75000 on a primary mortgage. AAoA is 5 years...Oldest account 21 years. Utilization actually stays about 2%, and I always PIF.

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Sarge, I disagree with your conclusion that it deosn't matter what you do. What I think is happening is that you're doing some things that are positive and others that are negative so they're in a dead heat.

I assume you don't want your scores to go down.

If you stop doing the negative things, and keep on doing the positive things, your scores will go up.

I.e. if you stopped adding new accounts, you'd see your scores climb. But of course if you want to keep adding accounts, knock yourself out. I know it's fun; I'm addicted too Your scores are super strong, and it really doesn't matter if they go higher, except for that purist in you that wants perfection

But if you really want that elusive perfect score you know exactly what you need to do... garden for a couple of years.

[sarge12]

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@Thomas_Thumb wrote:

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@sarge12 wrote:

Some added info....I have two existing installment loans, the new one 19300/20200 approx. plus 8000/17000 approx. I also added 4 new credit cards in last 6 months to make a total of 15 credit cards...all of them premium cards. My concern is not that it is not moving up. I actually expected adding 4 credit cards, and the auto loan to cause a rather large drop in the score, but as you can see, the score has only varied 4 points even with all the new credit. It just does not seem to matter to my score what I do, and if this is the case, the gardening will also have no effect. I also have 30000/75000 on a primary mortgage. AAoA is 5 years...Oldest account 21 years. Utilization actually stays about 2%, and I always PIF.

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Thanks for the added info.

I believe your mortgage is providing a buffer for aggregate installment loan B/L. Based on your data above, your B/L without the new loan would be 41% and with the new loan is 51%. I don't believe there are any thresholds for aggregate B/L in the below 70% to 30% range and likely in the 70% to 10% range. Theoretically, I could add a car loan of $40k without impacting my score due to the buffering effect my mortgage would have on aggregate B/L - according to the simulator. In this case I think the simulator is accurate it can handle one factor at a time (OFAT) ok. 

Given your AAoA still remained above 5 years, the primary negative impact on score in your situation, would be the added inquiries - IMO. Not sure how your CC inquiries were distributed among your CRAs but, I would have expected a likely 5 to 10 pont drop depending on how many INQs each CRA got. I continue to believe INQs are binned into QTY groups - score would only impacted when changing bins.

Are your scores down a little from before the CC spree on CRAs with at least 2 added inquiries?

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Yes...TU is 801 with 6 inq, Ex is 807 with 2 inq, and Eq is 816 with 1 inq. Other than inq, all reports look the same, so the difference between 1 and 6 inq appears to be 15 points total.