FICO Simulator Question

[Anonymous]

Not sure if this question has already been asked, but when using the FICO simulator and selecting the Pay Bills ontime for X months option, does the results take into account any negative items that are due to fall off? For example, if you have a collection or bankruptcy that is due to fall off in 4 months and you select the 6 month calculation, does the results factor in that those will be falling off in that timeframe?

Thanks!

[RobertEG]

I dont know, but kinda doubt it.  That would be a very sophisticated and subjective prediction.

The party that determines when a derogatory item falls from your credit report is the CRA.  The main FICO algorithm does not delete items of information from its scoring based on predictions of fall-off dates, it simply looks at what the CRAs actually continue to include in your CR.  FICO has no way of actually determiing when a derog will fall from a CR because the fall-off dates are a maximum, and nothing prevents the CRA from earlier deletions.

It would not make sense to me that Fair Isaac would use a prediction of deletion in the simulator that I dont believe they even use in their actual scoring algorithm.

[wednesdayaddamsd]

I have a lot of questions about the simulator as well, but mostly mine are regarding its accuracy. There is a topic near the bottom of the topics page called "myfico feedback" or something like that, and I've seen that specific answers related to this site have been answered. Maybe you would have better luck asking the question in that board?

I hope you can find the answer, because I'd like to know too!

[CS800]

Personal experience, the simulator has been between the limit that it stated should a change happpen. It's not a complex sim, so I wouldn't count too much on it.

Example 1: TU FICO was 629

I put if i pay a past due what would happen. Simulator said i will be between 640-669. Paid past due and waited 1 month, tradeline was update as 'current'. No change in score. Simulator probably didnt know that this was a CO account.

Example 2: TU FICO 629 still

I have a revolving balance of about 8200. I put in simulator that I want to pay $3700. Simulator says score will be between 639 and 669. Actual score after $3700 payment was 652.

So in short YMMV

[RobertEG]

The problem I see with the simulator is that it intentionally does not permit detailed, single-item modeling of changes over a short period of time.

This is intentional on their part because to do so would enable reverse-engineering of their algorithms,  So it takes into account the affect of changes over a period of months based on not only the one item you might be interested in, but also factors in account aging over that period.

It is good planning tool, but not for very short time periods, such as a month or two, that are isolated to one single action on your part.

[wednesdayaddamsd]

Thank you so much! That's a great example! )

[wednesdayaddamsd]

Thanks Robert!