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Paid Off Mortgage = Lowered FICO score

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hajew86
New Contributor

Paid Off Mortgage = Lowered FICO score

So in the past few months I've realized how odd the FICO scoring can be. Back in November my wife and I paid off a vehicle on her CR and it lowered her scores by as much as 30 points. Just today my PIF Mortgage popped up on my CR and it lowered my score. Now I'm curious to see once our new mortgage is reported to see if raises our scores accross the board. Very very goofy from my perspective. 

Message 1 of 46
45 REPLIES 45
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Paid Off Mortgage = Lowered FICO score

FICO requires that you have at least one open installment loan to get a good "credit mix" portion (10% of FICO score).

 

To get the most FICO points back, your loan needs to be at some balance below the original balance but the % varies on mortgages, auto and personal/student loans.

 

Paying off one mortgage that is say 85% remaining due will tank your scores if you have no other installment loan, but if you get a new mortgage with 100% remaining due you'll only get some of those points back until the new loan is aged and paid down a bit.

 

I actually did some research on this back in September and found there is evidence that people who pay off ALL installment loans have a higher likelihood of default later because they tend to increase consumer spending on credit cards assuming they're in better shape without the loan!  It's not a significant difference but it does exist, and FICO's analyses of billions of reports have them finding the correlation between paying off loans and increasing credit card debt, raising the risk of default.

 

FICO isn't about how well you have paid debt, it's about an instant review of how likely you are to default on debt in the future.  

Message 2 of 46
trusty
Frequent Contributor

Re: Paid Off Mortgage = Lowered FICO score


@Anonymous wrote:

FICO requires that you have at least one open installment loan to get a good "credit mix" portion (10% of FICO score).

 

To get the most FICO points back, your loan needs to be at some balance below the original balance but the % varies on mortgages, auto and personal/student loans.

 

Paying off one mortgage that is say 85% remaining due will tank your scores if you have no other installment loan, but if you get a new mortgage with 100% remaining due you'll only get some of those points back until the new loan is aged and paid down a bit.

 

I actually did some research on this back in September and found there is evidence that people who pay off ALL installment loans have a higher likelihood of default later because they tend to increase consumer spending on credit cards assuming they're in better shape without the loan!  It's not a significant difference but it does exist, and FICO's analyses of billions of reports have them finding the correlation between paying off loans and increasing credit card debt, raising the risk of default.

 

FICO isn't about how well you have paid debt, it's about an instant review of how likely you are to default on debt in the future.  


I'd like to see the data on this, because it sounds like a false assumption. The only assumption you can make with someone that pays off a mortgage early is that they are in excellent financial condition; which is indicative of being bright enough not to then go off and rack up undue credit card debt... as, they don't exactly have much use for credit cards, since they have just proven that they have excess cash.

 

So, if they do use credit cards, they are also smart enough to pay that off. To wit: If they can handle paying off several hundred thousand on a mortgage, they can certainly handle a few thousand here or there on a charge account.

 

It doesn't very well make financial sense to have installment loans open in perpetuity; but, it somehow makes for great credit scoring?

 

This is just a case of a flaw in the scoring system, that doesn't reward paid/closed installment accounts nearly enough. If they just kept the account open forever, the credit scoring would be fantastic. But, of course, that is nigh impossible, without deliberate gaming.

 

 

Message 3 of 46
hajew86
New Contributor

Re: Paid Off Mortgage = Lowered FICO score


@trusty wrote:

@Anonymous wrote:

FICO requires that you have at least one open installment loan to get a good "credit mix" portion (10% of FICO score).

 

To get the most FICO points back, your loan needs to be at some balance below the original balance but the % varies on mortgages, auto and personal/student loans.

 

Paying off one mortgage that is say 85% remaining due will tank your scores if you have no other installment loan, but if you get a new mortgage with 100% remaining due you'll only get some of those points back until the new loan is aged and paid down a bit.

 

I actually did some research on this back in September and found there is evidence that people who pay off ALL installment loans have a higher likelihood of default later because they tend to increase consumer spending on credit cards assuming they're in better shape without the loan!  It's not a significant difference but it does exist, and FICO's analyses of billions of reports have them finding the correlation between paying off loans and increasing credit card debt, raising the risk of default.

 

FICO isn't about how well you have paid debt, it's about an instant review of how likely you are to default on debt in the future.  


I'd like to see the data on this, because it sounds like a false assumption. The only assumption you can make with someone that pays off a mortgage early is that they are in excellent financial condition; which is indicative of being bright enough not to then go off and rack up undue credit card debt... as, they don't exactly have much use for credit cards, since they have just proven that they have excess cash.

 

So, if they do use credit cards, they are also smart enough to pay that off. To wit: If they can handle paying off several hundred thousand on a mortgage, they can certainly handle a few thousand here or there on a charge account.

 

It doesn't very well make financial sense to have installment loans open in perpetuity; but, it somehow makes for great credit scoring?

 

This is just a case of a flaw in the scoring system, that doesn't reward paid/closed installment accounts nearly enough. If they just kept the account open forever, the credit scoring would be fantastic. But, of course, that is nigh impossible, without deliberate gaming.

 

 


That's my feeling as well. My thought would be that high credit worthiness would be determined on the ability to PAY OFF accounts rather than keeping and holding onto debt. It doesn't make sense to be dinged for being financially responsible. 

 

Thank you for your input!

Message 4 of 46
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Paid Off Mortgage = Lowered FICO score

Rewarding paid/closed installment accounts would be a terrible move for the FICO algorithm.  You'd actually have more gaming going on then, as people instead of employing the SSL technique once would do it a dozen times so that they'd have a dozen paid/closed installment accounts on their credit report if it meant getting extra points each time.  THAT wouldn't make any sense.

 

An installment loan is quite different than a revolver in that the amount due every month is exactly the same for a period of years.  This could be 3 years, 30 years or anywhere in between.  Also, partial payments don't count.  If you owe $500/mo on your installment loan, you need to budget that $500/mo into your life for however many years exists on the loan term.  Revolvers are different.  What you owe goes up and down and rarely would result in the same amount due each month.  If someone normally pays $500/mo toward their revolver, they can cut that back to $100/mo during hard times if they want (assuming that's at or above the minimum payment) and avoid any late payments.  You can't decide you want to pay $100/mo toward your installment loan for a couple of months when $500/mo is the required payment. 

 

My point is that revolving credit and installment loans are quite different when it comes to managing credit, so it makes perfect sense to me that the FICO algorithm likes to see both types of accounts open on a credit report to award top credit mix points.

Message 5 of 46
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Paid Off Mortgage = Lowered FICO score

What one "thinks" in terms of rational behavior has nothing to do with actual human behavior.  If you're familiar with praxeology, you're aware that humans in general habitually value things sooner versus later.  Even with rational proven math telling us NOT to spend too quickly, we still do.

 

The consumer mindset, when graphed and charted against all the given risks to future income is anything but rational.  The recent data points on increased forced savings by employers bringing on more debt is a huge and wonderful study into the irrational mind of the average consumer.  No wealth-building individual would take on a loan if it costs them more than other methods for asset acquisition, but most credit users aren't wealth-minded, just consumption minded.

 

FICO's penalty for not having an active installment loan isn't irrational nor is it an error in their analyses.

 

There are white papers out there if you subscribe to risk journals (or aggregators) that discuss these odd "irrational" risk factors, but FICO's scoring doesn't rely on rational behavior, it relies on billions of transactions they monitor and analyze to develop their patented scorecard system for risk scoring future behavior.  A person with NO open installment loan is proven to FICO to be a higher risk, hence having a lower FICO score.  The number of folks gaming the system with the SSL number in a few tens of thousands at most versus hundreds of millions who aren't aware of the FICO penalty for no installment loan.  I'd guess the number of folks gaming FICO with the SSL numbers in less than 0.002% of borrowers.

Message 6 of 46
trusty
Frequent Contributor

Re: Paid Off Mortgage = Lowered FICO score


@hajew86 wrote:


That's my feeling as well. My thought would be that high credit worthiness would be determined on the ability to PAY OFF accounts rather than keeping and holding onto debt. It doesn't make sense to be dinged for being financially responsible. 

 

Thank you for your input!


 

This is just a classic case of being kindly nudged into participation in debt system that only rewards consumers that can be monetized.

 

If you're not in debt, we cannot very well make money off of you; by selling your data, selling your scores, nor by making any interest off of you. It's a trifecta of going dark and effectively dropping out of the game. So, they effectively penalize financial responsibility by unduly rewarding participation in unnecessary debt. Of course, it only makes sense if you're deliberately gaming. Otherwise, it's highly likely that by participating in debt in perpetuity, you will eventually default. Of course, you have to keep playing along, just to prove that you're not the defaulting type.

 

Thusly, it makes perfect sense, and no sense at all.

Message 7 of 46
atarvuzdar
Established Contributor

Re: Paid Off Mortgage = Lowered FICO score


@hajew86 wrote:

So in the past few months I've realized how odd the FICO scoring can be. Back in November my wife and I paid off a vehicle on her CR and it lowered her scores by as much as 30 points. Just today my PIF Mortgage popped up on my CR and it lowered my score. Now I'm curious to see once our new mortgage is reported to see if raises our scores accross the board. Very very goofy from my perspective. 


@If I'm not mistaken, if you have no other open loans then you will probably get some points back when the new mortgage reports but you should not expect to get the full amount that you lost from the closed mortgage because the % owed on the loan will be @ or close to 100% whereas your other mortgage would have had a lower overall % of the original loan amount due.

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Message 8 of 46
arkane
Established Contributor

Re: Paid Off Mortgage = Lowered FICO score


@Anonymous wrote:

Rewarding paid/closed installment accounts would be a terrible move for the FICO algorithm.  You'd actually have more gaming going on then, as people instead of employing the SSL technique once would do it a dozen times so that they'd have a dozen paid/closed installment accounts on their credit report if it meant getting extra points each time.  THAT wouldn't make any sense.


I'd argue I could just as easily game the system by opening an SSL/Self Lender/some other secured loan with paltry interest just prior to paying off a loan so I always have at least one installment account open. I understand FICO's algorithm is based on big data, but I just think it ridiculous that the more financially responsible you are, the more you have to game the system just to maximize your score. Then again there's probably an argument to be made about not conforming to the norm or being the 0.01%. 

 


trusty wrote: 

This is just a classic case of being kindly nudged into participation in debt system that only rewards consumers that can be monetized.

 

If you're not in debt, we cannot very well make money off of you; by selling your data, selling your scores, nor by making any interest off of you. It's a trifecta of going dark and effectively dropping out of the game. So, they effectively penalize financial responsibility by unduly rewarding participation in unnecessary debt. Of course, it only makes sense if you're deliberately gaming. Otherwise, it's highly likely that by participating in debt in perpetuity, you will eventually default.

 

Thusly, it makes perfect sense, and no sense at all.


As I said above, when you don't conform to the norm and fall into the 0.01%, expect certain repercussions. So yes I feel the same way sometimes, but this is why this community exists to teach you all kinds of tricks to turn the system on its head. Smiley Happy 

 

And think of it this way: isn't it wonderful when you're in full control of your finances, and make the system work for you instead of the other way around? BoA has paid me over $1500 for the privilege of having their card in the last 5 years, and I paid exactly $0 in interest. Likewise this year I've already received $172 in cash back (will get matched to $344 after a year) from Discover after only having their card for 1.5 months. Getting paid to use credit is pretty sweet eh. Smiley Happy

 

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6/8/20:

Message 9 of 46
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Paid Off Mortgage = Lowered FICO score


@arkane wrote:


I'd argue I could just as easily game the system by opening an SSL/Self Lender/some other secured loan with paltry interest just prior to paying off a loan so I always have at least one installment account open. I understand FICO's algorithm is based on big data, but I just think it ridiculous that the more financially responsible you are, the more you have to game the system just to maximize your score. Then again there's probably an argument to be made about not conforming to the norm or being the 0.01%. 


Except "your" FICO score isn't yours, it's FICO's.  The lenders care because FICO isn't just a risk metric, it's a profit metric.  Debt isn't financed by lenders as much as investors, and lender-servicers use FICO scoring to sell investment-grade credit tranches to investors.

 

So in the end, your FICO score is closer to your "how profitable is this person" score to investors.

 

Also remember, and I say this as someone who has invested in ABS packages in the past, that a person with an 850 FICO score is probably less profitable than someone with a 600 score.  I've had my eye out on subprime credit investments because I'm willing to stake a big risk to get a sweet piece of that 29% interest rate on store cards.  Someone with an 850 score doesn't appeal to my risk-reward strategy, but neither does someone with a 490 score.  That 600-679 range looks perfect, especially with the new FICO deep history products that let you analyze an individual creditor over time to see if they're likely to carry a balance.

Message 10 of 46
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