Question on AoYA and very dirty files

[BallBounces]

I was doing some reading yesterday and happened across several topics that addressed a view I did not previously discern:

The thought is that AoYA and it's associated thresholds (whatever they may be) are of little or likely no scoring harm and benefit for dirty files with a major deliquency.  Some of the threads were a few years old, so I wanted to confirm that this is still the conventional wisdom.

Take an example file  with more than ten 60 days lates in the least 7 years, and one or more charge offs.  Have we ever identified any score change from AoYA moving past a 3, 6, or 12 month on a file like this?  FICO08 for example purposes.

Note, I have specifically NOT mentioned AAoA.  Assume that no thresholds are crossed on average age of accounts which would indicate a score change.  

Current thoughts?

[Anonymous]

I believe what you are referring to is AoYA not being a scorecard assignment factor for dirty files.

[BallBounces]

---

@Anonymous wrote:

I believe what you are referring to is AoYA not being a scorecard assignment factor for dirty files.

---

@BrutalBodyShots

Well, maybe.

Is the inference that if it is not an assignment factor for dirty files, then it has no score impact on them?

I have never thought that to be the case but it seems many have assumed that for a long time. 

[Anonymous]

I'm not really sure, as back when my file was dirty the last thing on my mind was age of accounts factors.  It wasn't until my account was clean that I really started looking at them and AoYA in particular.  I guess your best bet would be asking those with dirty files if they've ever seen any score gain related to a known AoYA threshold.  The most solid one is 12 months, so if there were any points to be gained certainly they'd be found at that spot. 

Anyone with a dirty file see a score change in crossing the 12 month AoYA threshold? 

[Anonymous]

In September I should be able to tell you if there was a change for me. Definite dirty file, but given my Util (and the fact I will be decreasing it in that window) I might not have the cleanest data point.

We could all pay off my debt and figure out the real effect...

[Anonymous]

Actually, I take that back. Balances wont report until like the 5th and 13th, so I should actually see if some movement independent of balances reporting (I believe I saw an age related change on the first of July, likely AAoA).

[Anonymous]

---

@BallBounces wrote:

The thought is that AoYA and it's associated thresholds (whatever they may be) are of little or likely no scoring harm and benefit for dirty files with a major deliquency.  Some of the threads were a few years old, so I wanted to confirm that this is still the conventional wisdom.

Take an example file  with more than ten 60 days lates in the least 7 years, and one or more charge offs.  Have we ever identified any score change from AoYA moving past a 3, 6, or 12 month on a file like this?  FICO08 for example purposes.

---

@Revelate has some data on crossing AoYA 3mo with both a clean and derogatory scorecard.

There was no change at that threshold, and he lost 20 points for opening that new card.

[SouthJamaica]

We will never be able to answer this question.

There are too many variables at play when someone has lots of negatives in their profile to isolate this one, relatively small, factor.

[calyx]

---

@SouthJamaica wrote:

We will never be able to answer this question.

There are too many variables at play when someone has lots of negatives in their profile to isolate this one, relatively small, factor.

---

I think this is pretty true.

I've seen ~10 pt gains when crossing a 3mo old threshhold with my (formerly) dirty scorecards (not as dirty as the original post - 2 charge offs, 2-3 collection accounts), but the next 3mo threshhold will be on a clean scorecard (only EQ is dirty at this point and should be clean in Aug, my 3 mo mark is in Sept)...

[BallBounces]

---

@calyx wrote:

---

@SouthJamaica wrote:

We will never be able to answer this question.

There are too many variables at play when someone has lots of negatives in their profile to isolate this one, relatively small, factor.

---

I think this is pretty true.

I've seen ~10 pt gains when crossing a 3mo old threshhold with my (formerly) dirty scorecards (not as dirty as the original post - 2 charge offs, 2-3 collection accounts), but the next 3mo threshhold will be on a clean scorecard (only EQ is dirty at this point and should be clean in Aug, my 3 mo mark is in Sept)...

---

Thanks for the input folks.

@calyx, ~10 points at 3 months, while not huge is certainly tangible.  Any other derogitory aging that might have contributed to it?