Relative score impact as baddies age

[W261w261]

For the past 7 years, I've had a perfect payment record, except for 6 mos in late 2018. That period saw derogatory lates. I now owe nothing except AZEO, and have done what I can in other areas. Score now EX8 711, EQ9 725. But those lates are going to haunt me for the better part of 5 more years. I was wondering, given my understanding that they have "less effect" the older they get, whether they proceed to that "less" in a linear fashion or on some kind of curve. In other words, if it was plotted on a graph, with "negative effect" on the Y axis and "months from now" on the X axis, so that at month 0 (now) the effect is the highest, and at month say 60, the effect is gone, would that line be straight or some kind of curve, like the outer end of a bell curve? On a linear curve, if the penalty from the lates is say 60 points, each month from now my score would increase by 1 point until the penalty was exhausted. On a non-linear curve, my score might increase by 5 points next month, and month 60 only 1 point. Both end up in the same place, it's just how they get there. 

I know what I want to ask, but am struggling with how to do it. Sry. 

[SouthJamaica]

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@W261w261 wrote:

For the past 7 years, I've had a perfect payment record, except for 6 mos in late 2018. That period saw derogatory lates. I now owe nothing except AZEO, and have done what I can in other areas. Score now EX8 711, EQ9 725. But those lates are going to haunt me for the better part of 5 more years. I was wondering, given my understanding that they have "less effect" the older they get, whether they proceed to that "less" in a linear fashion or on some kind of curve. In other words, if it was plotted on a graph, with "negative effect" on the Y axis and "months from now" on the X axis, so that at month 0 (now) the effect is the highest, and at month say 60, the effect is gone, would that line be straight or some kind of curve, like the outer end of a bell curve? 

I know what I want to ask, but am struggling with how to do it. Sry. 

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I think you asked it very well

I wish I knew the answer, but I'm sure someone else will.

[Anonymous]

Maybe this is the graph you saw?

[Ficoproblems247]

I agree that I think you explained what you're looking for in very good detail. What's the worst payment status that you got to?

[W261w261]

I never saw that graph.  Thanks, just what I was looking for!  Well, not what I was looking for.  I have some 90s & 120s, which aren't going down very quickly over at least the next few years.  According to the graph, the hit on my score after 2 years is still 100.  I wonder about that, as my score, at 711 or 725, would otherwise be over 800?  Doesn't sound right.

It would be interesting to see what that graph looks like from 4 years to 7 years.  Does it pitch down in the later years, or hang in there closer to 90, messin' with me until it legally has to quit?  

[Anonymous]

Very good question that I'd like the answer to as well. I have a CO and it just doesn't look too good anytime soon. 

[CaptJOB]

DW has a 90 day from late 2016 and her scores are generally stuck in the low 700's(probably 720-730 if she was AZEO). Seems like there's a couple of point improvement every ~6 months but nothing crazy. AoOA is 9.8 years and AAoA is 5.4 years. FWIW age seems to be a more important factor on the Experian Mortgage score where she is consistently higher than me who has a young, clean file(AAoA 2 years AoOA 3.4 years).

[Ficoproblems247]

While it's different for every profile, a very general high level answer is that 30 and 60s will do the majority of their damage in the first two years and drastically drop off after that. Anything 90+ is going to really impact you the full 7 years unfortunately. I have a few 60D lates on my profile and I gained over 60 pts on my EQ and TU when they turned 2 years old, and I think like 40-50 on EX. My guess is if I had an open installment loan with optimized utilization, I would be somewhere in the upper 700s with 60 day lates still on my reports. 

[Anonymous]

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@Anonymous wrote:

Maybe this is the graph you saw?

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I believe this is a graph generated by @Anonymous . I would note that a PR card is likely different. I would also note that utilization is weighed less heavily in dirty cards. 

[bobnathan0295]

is a paid chargeoff the same as 120 day ?