Understanding FICO score gain and loss

[19eighty5]

Looking to understand how FICO scoring works. Any clarification or help is appreciated. Here's the scenario:

- On 6/1, my Experian FICO 8 score increased to 625

- Same day, I apped for the AMEX Gold Charge card (denied)

- Same day, thanks to Credit Check Total, I see that my Experian score drops to 617 due to the new inquiry (7 total in last 12 months)

- On 6/8, my Experian score increased to 630

Is it safe to say that my Experian score COULD be at 638 but is being held back by 8 points due to amount of inquiries?

[Anonymous]

Yeah, that sounds reasonable.  But with this caveat...

Trying to spend too much time guessing the exact details of what the algorithm may be doing is generally a mug's game.  All you need to know (which you knew beforehand) is that inquiries tend to hurt your score and never help it.  And you likely also know that any given inquiry stops hurting your score after a year.  That's enough for making practical decisions.

If your primary goal is to raise your score, your next steps are simple.  Stop applying for cards (you have seven already).  Pay off all cards (and then begin using at least one for small purchases, keeping utilization < 9%).  Begin a long campaign to get all derogs removed via goodwill letters.  And avoid trying to guess too much what might be going on day to day with your score.

PS.  I observe that you have already have three credit cards that charge an annual fee (CreditOne, OpenSky, Amex Gold SkyMile) and that you were trying to get a fourth card with an annual fee (the Amex Gold charge card).  As a purely financial move, I encourage you to move in the opposite direction.  I.e. rather than increasing the number of fees you pay to CC issuers, develop a plan over time to reduce or eliminate all fees.