One thing that the sim doesn't do very well is distinguish between the score impact of the inquiry alone vs the score impact of the new account that presumably results from the inq.
You really don't get much of a ding from an inq --3-5 points for most people, maybe as much as 10 points if you have long credit history and scores near 800. Even then, if it's your one-and-only inq on that CRA, you might not get a ding at all. I found that I seem to be "allowed" one inq per year without a penalty. I get hit for the second one; then nothing for the 3rd one; then hit again for the fourth; etc.
The ding for the inq does NOT fade over the course of the year, per myFICO sources. It just stays there for a year and then goes away. (The inq itself continues to show on your full reports for the second year, but it no longer is included in scoring, which is why it's not listed on your myFICO credit report.)
What can hurt your scores more is the new account that comes from the inq if you were approved. First of all, there is a ding for new credit less than 6 months old. Secondly, your AAoA (average age of accounts) is by adding the brand-new account in, and if it's lowered enough, you can get hurt by that as well. Thirdly, if the new account shows up with a balance, your revolving util might increase. (If it showed up with a $0 balance, and the CL raised your total CL enough to improve your revolving util, your scores might improve.) Fourthly ("fourthly"?), if it is an installment account, it will represent another TL with a balance reporting, and that might drag in the "too many accounts with balances" bit.
The good news on the newness ding is that it does fade with time. If you don't get another new account after this one, you should get a bump at 6 months for not having any accounts under 6 months old. You'll probably get another bump at one year, on its birthday. If your AAoA dropped by a year or more, once the new account has reported long enough to add months back on and you go back up an even year, you might get help from that. Plus there's a general trend for increase simply by having more and more months of clean history tacked on.
So anyway, to actually answer your questions, lol, a 7 point drop isn't too surprising with two inqs, especially if you got a new card with it.
The 30 - 50 point projection that you're looking at is from having two more years of perfect history added to whatever you have. It would be nice if the myFICO site explained that better.
I once got a projection of 20 - 40 points for "paying down balances over the next 24 months." My total revolving balance at the time was $17, and that would have been a neat trick. So really, the projection is simply for increased age and additional months of clean credit behavior.
You really don't get much of a ding from an inq --3-5 points for most people, maybe as much as 10 points if you have long credit history and scores near 800. Even then, if it's your one-and-only inq on that CRA, you might not get a ding at all. I found that I seem to be "allowed" one inq per year without a penalty. I get hit for the second one; then nothing for the 3rd one; then hit again for the fourth; etc.
The ding for the inq does NOT fade over the course of the year, per myFICO sources. It just stays there for a year and then goes away. (The inq itself continues to show on your full reports for the second year, but it no longer is included in scoring, which is why it's not listed on your myFICO credit report.)
What can hurt your scores more is the new account that comes from the inq if you were approved. First of all, there is a ding for new credit less than 6 months old. Secondly, your AAoA (average age of accounts) is by adding the brand-new account in, and if it's lowered enough, you can get hurt by that as well. Thirdly, if the new account shows up with a balance, your revolving util might increase. (If it showed up with a $0 balance, and the CL raised your total CL enough to improve your revolving util, your scores might improve.) Fourthly ("fourthly"?), if it is an installment account, it will represent another TL with a balance reporting, and that might drag in the "too many accounts with balances" bit.
The good news on the newness ding is that it does fade with time. If you don't get another new account after this one, you should get a bump at 6 months for not having any accounts under 6 months old. You'll probably get another bump at one year, on its birthday. If your AAoA dropped by a year or more, once the new account has reported long enough to add months back on and you go back up an even year, you might get help from that. Plus there's a general trend for increase simply by having more and more months of clean history tacked on.
So anyway, to actually answer your questions, lol, a 7 point drop isn't too surprising with two inqs, especially if you got a new card with it.
The 30 - 50 point projection that you're looking at is from having two more years of perfect history added to whatever you have. It would be nice if the myFICO site explained that better.
I once got a projection of 20 - 40 points for "paying down balances over the next 24 months." My total revolving balance at the time was $17, and that would have been a neat trick. So really, the projection is simply for increased age and additional months of clean credit behavior.