Chase Sapphire Preferred approval odds? Worth it with Delta AMEX in wallet?

[Anonymous]

What are my odds for the Chase Sapphire Preferred with my current scores/data points (below)?  I also already have a Delta Gold Amex and
mainly fly Delta and stay at Hilton brand hotels when travelling, so is the general consensus that the CSP is worth it in this case? If I spring for the CSP, I'd love to get it in soon to put some Christmas presents on there towards the $4k in first 3 months bonus.

I'm 28, in AL, and have ~58,000 in accessible income, with an expectation of that going to $70-80 in the next 12-18 months. I currently
fly about once/quarter on average, but expect that to increase in the next year to 3-5 times per quarter, so rewards are an important factor at play.

TU - 687
EQ - 671
EX - 683

I have an unsecured personal loan, and mortgage on my report in addition to the below:

Currently in my wallet:
- Delta Amex - 11,500
- Discover IT - 8,400 (doesn't appear to have reported by considerable paydown and CLI from 7k to 8.4k in last two weeks)

Used for BT:
- Chase Slate - 1,800 (currently at 20.6% UTI), plan to zero this account by Jan 2018.

Tucked WAAAYYY away in the sock drawer:
- AU on parent's Amex - 14,600
- Old Discover card - 1,000
- Goodyear CC - 600

Total CC UTI ~ 25.68% (working to pay that down as I am able)

- I'm at 4/24 with my mortgage age at 22 months currently.
- AAoA = 4 years, 9 months
- One 30-59 late payment in March 2016
- No Derogs

Thanks in advance for your input!

[Anonymous]

I would suggest getting your UTI way down before applying for the CSP. Under 10%.

The late could hurt you as well seeing it's still under 2 years old.

[Anonymous]

Call Discover, they will push a midcycle report balance update on demand. Very nice about it.

Get your utilization down to below 18.9% aggregate and as low as possible on every card (including AU) and you may get a score bump to qualify.

Chase recon data points show people at 650 we're able to recon CSP and even CSR but Chase internal risk score involves more than credit reports. It doesn't track with FICO. So FICO isn't enough to validate an approval.

One person I know did HUCA 4 times to get CSP this year before an approval. I'm not that patient. His FICO pulled was 670 but I believe they use their internal risk score mostly... He has $30,000 in Chase personal bank accounts.

[Anonymous]

Great, thank you both for the feedback! 

Discover's ears must have been burning because it looks like, since my above post, they have reported which resulted in my scores receiving a bump to the below:

EX - ??? (I would think somewhere in the middle between TU and EQ?)

TU - 725

EQ - 732

I've been working diligently to pay down that UTI, but it will still probably take me a solid 2-3 months to get down to the 18.9% threshold without adding a new account.  I assume that if I was to go with another pre-qualified card to decrease my aggregate UTI, resulting in 5/24 for the time being, that my mortgage which is 22 months old at this point will drop off in Jan/Feb 2018?  Is that accurate?  I've seen conflicting info regarding mortgages being included in the 5/24 rule?

(patience is a virtue that I try hard to have, but lack sometimes as well!)

Thanks again.

[Anonymous]

Where are you getting your EQ and TU scores from?  Website?

Note that 18.9% aggregate is just one slice of "utilization" -- the maximum utilization on your cards individually also affects FICO for a great number of points -- I saw a 44 point drop on a dirty profile when 3 of my 6 cards were "maxed out" due to Irma.  So you want to get all your cards below the breakpoints (8.9%, 28.9%, 48.9%, 68.9%, 88.9%).  Remember any interest posting at statement cut will increase balance reported, so you want to be below those breakpoints even with interest posting.

As for mortgage, it is NOT counted in 5/24 -- only credit cards and credit lines count.  So count the number of CREDIT cards you've gotten in 24 months and that's your number.

[Anonymous]

I'm getting them from CreditKarma which I understand isn't 100% reliable, but has typically been in line, give or take a few points, with my monthly Discover/Chase FICO credit scores.  Been getting my EX from a gifted IDShield account, but it doesn't reflect any changes yet.

[Anonymous]

Yeah, be careful with Vantage Scores.  Sometimes they can be accurate, but other times they're horribly wrong.

Get your free EX from creditscorecard.com now, and then in 14 days get a free score from creditscore.com.  Both are EX and if you wait to apply for the second one for 2 weeks you can rotate a free score every 2 weeks every month!

Here's a plot of my Vantage Score versus FICO score up to a few months ago, and the Vantage Score was terrible inaccurate.

[Anonymous]

Awesome, thanks for pointing me towards CreditScorecard.com!  It came back with a 715 EX FICO8, which while lower than the VantageScore EQ and TU scores, I'm still happy to see!  

As for your graph, I love seeing that sort of data that can be used to compare, I might try to begin compiling something like that myself!  I knew there was some variance between VS and FICO but this really puts it into perspective!

I guess with this new info, and knowing that my UTI is still where it is and with one late payment in the past 2 years, my odds of the CSP are still pretty up in the air?  I'd rather not risk the HP for a likely denial.

[Anonymous]

Glad creditscorecard.com worked for you!  Don't forget to set an alarm on your phone to also check creditscore.com which is a different free service which provides a free EX FICO8 (and a free credit report) once a month -- do them 2 weeks apart so you can "rotate" your EX pull.

Do you bank with Chase or have any loan products with them?  If so, go into any branch and ask a personal banker if you have any preapproved offers.  Those offers are VERY solid.

In addition, you can sign up with Chase Credit Journey which is free.  It's a useless weekly Vantage Score, but some folks (including myself) have seen preapprovals there which also was solid in my case and my FICO score was pretty low plus I burned Chase 7-8 years ago for a big chargeoff.

The best thing is to look for prequalified offers in-branch if you have a Chase account.  Also, logging into your account at Chase can show you CSP in "Your Offers" section.

Lastly, you can go to the Chase Prequalification page and they'll do a soft inquiry and show you offers, maybe.  I don't get any offers.  My friend with 800 FICO scores doesn't get any offers there, either, but one of my good friends has FICO scores in the 680s-690s and she sees CSP in her "Chase Prequalification" page: https://www.chase.com/prequalified

That page is a soft inquiry and you can check it every 2 weeks if you like.  Also, if you app through a prequalified offer and are denied, recon is more likely to give it to you have asking you some questions about that late.

[Anonymous]

Regarding prequal - I got a CSP prequal for $5k with a dirty profile consisting of 3 recently paid & closed medical collections with fico8 in the 650-680 range.

So there's hope, but I had no lates & total util under 8% overall with no one card over 5%. If you get a prequal I would give it a shot, but if not based on your data I would wait until you've taken a big chunk out of your utilization & let the late get at least 2 years or older. Good luck!