Hey all.
I have done the math and I believe that I finally have a good reason to apply for the Amex Gold card. Read on to see if you agree with me!
Current Credit Standings & Situation
Right now my Experian credit file looks pretty decent. It's thickened up a bit, and I have tons of revolvers, a mortgage and a new auto loan. I have previously paid off my last auto loan in June.
Right now I have the Costco card which gives 3% dining, 4% gas, and my Discover IT which is giving 5% on groceries right now, but only seasonally. I feel like the Amex Gold would be an improvement over both of them, mostly due to my grocery shopping, but also with dining. For the rest of this I am going to focus solely on the Dining and Groceries, as those spending benefits make up the crux of this decision.
Here's my current credit report, about 1 month old. I can refresh this with a new report tomorrow which will show my new Auto Loan.
Inquiries & Past Declines
Before we get into the math though, Amex has declined me three times in three years. Starting to lose hope, lol. Last time I applied I had a 777 score and was declined. Was in June. The last couple times have dropped off my credit report now, both in early 2017. Now I'm at 5% utilization, have 9 lines with $71,500 available credit, a new car loan and a new mortgage that has been paid for 8? months. One of the reasons they declined me back in June I think was for having barely paid anything on my mortgage. Another was seeking credit.
I am fairly certain all applications were for the Blue Cash Preferred card, with the 6% groceries category.
The inquiries from 2017 I am pretty sure were seeking credit, not enough history, high debt. I was pretty new to all this back then, and my score was around 680-700.
Should I give it a go? Wait? The next inquiries I have dropping off are here:
If I do Apply:
Here's a cost/benefit analysis using Mint's breakdown:
Groceries: 4% Amex Gold / 5% & 1.5% Discover/Rivermark
Yearly groceries: $7,800 Average Spend / $312 @ 4% Amex Gold / (97.50 @ 5%) + (87.75 @ 1.5%) = $185.25 @ Mixed Discover 5% /Rivermark 1.5%
Dining @ 4% Amex Gold / 3% Citi Costco
Yearly fine dining: $3,000 Spent / $120 @ 4% Amex Gold / $90 @ 3% Cotsco
Yearly fast food: $2,422 Spent / $96.88 @ 4% Amex Gold / $72.66 @ 3% Costco
Yearly FastPOS/Delivery Svc: $586 Spent / $23.44 @ 4% Amex Gold / $17.58 @ 3% Costco
Coffee: $170 Spent / $6.8 @ 4% Amex Gold / $5.1 @ 3% Costco
Sub total: $6,178 Spent / $247.12 @ 4% Amex Gold / $185.34 @ 3% Costco
Totals: $559.12 With Amex Gold, $370.59 with Costco/Discover/Rivermark Combo
Annual Fee: $250 on Amex Gold
$559.12 - $250 = $309.12
Plus $120 in dining credits from say, GrubHub: $429.12
Plus another $120 from Uber Eats (unlikely to use, honestly): $549.12
Max potential difference: $178.53
Likely potential difference: $58.53
Without Amex credits used: -$61.47
Prequalified Options
Should probably note my prequalification choices through Amex. Prequalified for:
75,000 Membership Rewards Points on Amex Gold when I spend $4,000 in 6 months
$300 cash back with Blue Cash Preferred after spending $1,000 in 3 months
In Closing
Alright, so it seems that with the credits used, we're going to save some money. Without those credits, the card will cost us money. We have been making more, so it's likely that food spending might improve ever so slightly, but that's not the point here. The point is asking whether the Gold card is going to find a welcome place in my wallet, and to me it seems the answer is yes. I am fervent enough with these cards that I can be on top of the game.
There's also the potential for the Blue Cash Everyday card, but I am really not wanting another revolver. I'd like to try to break into the Gold. And the Blue Cash Preferred card I have been declined for three times now, and I am so over applying for that card. On paper it would give a big boost to the groceries category over the Discover/Rivermark combo ($360 @ 6% + $22.50 @ 5% + $20.25 @ 1.5% = a whopping $402.75 ) but with no 4% dining, it would only net $307.75 in the grocery category for a flat $122.50 boost of cash back. I could earn more using the Uber Eats credit seven times. Even still, it is a better deal, despite me wanting the Gold Card. At this point I'm just disillusioned.
What do you guys think? Thanks. 
Updated the post with some information, specifically Prequalified options, and an analysis of the BCP card, which I have been declined for three times.
It may just come down to a lot of new credit in a short period of time, which seems to jive with the previous denial reasons. How many new accounts (not just revolving credit cards) have you opened in the past 24/12/6 months?
@K-in-Boston wrote:It may just come down to a lot of new credit in a short period of time, which seems to jive with the previous denial reasons. How many new accounts (not just revolving credit cards) have you opened in the past 24/12/6 months?
Hmm.
6 months: One card, $20k Rivermark Rewards card (1.5% CB anywhere) and one auto loan for $44.8k
12 months: Mortgage for $290k (Opened in April)
24 months: One card, $9.5k Discover IT (reaches 2 years in April, 2 years 1 month in May.)
Wow, that was incredibly detailed. Great information.
Frankly, it sounds like you want to break into a new tier of cards, but you don't need to, and I personally don't think Amex will see your profile much differently at this point, especially if you have 2 recent loans where the balances are still very close to the original loan amounts, despite the ~8 months of consistent payments.
That's just my gut and there will be others with more detailed credit knowledge that I hope will chime in with logistics, but I feel like you should wait.
US Bank Cash + $8,700
Starting Score: 657
Sorry nothing substantial to add but feel like you should be recognized for the great formatting and detailed data. Good luck.
Never seen a post like yours
. You mathed it alright, man i miss the days when people got credit cards cuz they just plain wanted them. This world is too crazy to overthink a credit card, if i could afford a $250 cc , that will have credits thus lower, apparently you can haha, i would just go for it. Add a SUB, you would be a true MFer
@AverageJoesCredit wrote:Never seen a post like yours
Ya, I'd go for it with the SUB alone. Last AMEX pull was June of last year, that's enough time to give it another shot IMO. If AMEX doesn't give you any love, maybe it's time to look at Chase or someone else.
Thanks for the kind words everyone!
Well, I am frustrated (haha, said that in the thread title). Amex is super telling me to talk to the hand. I just updated my credit report, and now even Experian is upset with me for opening that auto loan:
I imagine that I would be probably textbook insane to apply for Amex right now, because I just opened this loan. Reason being, the last time I applied for Amex was the same day I had applied and been approved for a new Rivermark credit card, so that'd be pretty similar here.
On the other hand, what the heck!? What's the point of having good credit if I can't use it? I hear everyone say "oh yeah, if your credit score is above 730 you're good for almost any loan!" Then there's me here, with steady credit scores above 730+ for months and I am now worried to attempt a pull.
I can wait. It seems that I have been told to wait a lot recently. I waited a year to pull the trigger on that car lol, I am waiting on some investments now, and I have been waiting eight months now for this Amex Gold card.
WAITING IS SO ANNOYING 
But I can do it. Mixed reviews above means I should probably err on the side of caution, despite people saying I should go for it. That being said:
Vote now friends, DO I WAIT OR DO I GIVE IT A GO? 
Let's get 21 votes in, and I'll make my decision from there. Just respond below with your choice, and please back your vote with some reasoning! And to show restraint, if we don't get 21 votes, I won't apply. If you guys vote not to apply, I will hold to my guns and not apply. Basically I need a really good reason to go through with an application now, rather than wait.
Give it time. Further credit seeking in the near-term is only going to make it worse. Give your accounts some time to age. Credit scores are only one factor in underwriting, and with Amex once you're at about 720 they don't really seem to make much difference. Having a good credit score doesn't mean that someone is not also a risk. You have many new accounts and recent inquiries; their answer is unlikely to change until that is no longer a factor.