How accurate are "matched cards" and "chance of approval" on CK, Experian, etc?

[vinster95]

Quick question. How accraute are the "matched cards" or "chance of approval" or "cards for you" or anything like that on sites like Experian, Credit Karma, etc...? I'm assuming they're partners and it's marketing from these sites. But is there any validity to these "approval odds" I guess you could call them, for lack of a better term?

[citymunky]

It's just marketing. However I have noticed as my credit profile and scored improve sub-prime card recommendations (i.e. Mission Lane, Credit One) were replaced with prime card recommendations (i.e. Wells Fargo Autograph, Citi Custom Cash, etc).

[vinster95]

@citymunky wrote:

It's just marketing. However I have noticed as my credit profile and scored improve sub-prime card recommendations (i.e. Mission Lane, Credit One) were replaced with prime card recommendations (i.e. Wells Fargo Autograph, Citi Custom Cash, etc).

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Right, thats what I'm noticing as well. I paid down a CC balance and my score jumped up 65 points. Now instead of Mission Lane recs I'm getting CSR, CSP, Venture Card, etc recs lol

[FICO-Quest]

Watching Experian CreditMatch, Credit Karma and Credit Sesame over the past 3 years during my rebuild - I'd say it's definitely marketing, but some of the information is being shared between the marketing partners/card issuers and these sites (case in point: I recently received a Karma Guarantee payment for an old declined app I did from a pre-selected offer in my Citi account, rather than from Crecit Karma).  The offers clearly seem to track credit score - maybe not the exact one used by the lender - and maybe one or 2 other attributes.  Lender specific requirements are definitely not included in creating offers (like Chase 5/24).  At this point I only see offers for various Chase cards (despite being over 5/24), various Citi cards including the Aadvantage, AT&T, DC & CC (which I was just approved for), and the VentureX which I recently was declined for when I attempted the pre-approval with Cap One just for my own entertainment.  Oh, and there's several BofA cards mixed in there with the WF Autograph (WF keeps emailing and mailing "you're pre-selected to apply" offers for various cards to me monthly) - vs. CreditOne, MissionLane, Avant, etc. when I first started.  I'd describe the sites though as generally very to sometimes overly optimistic.

[pi-r-squared]

I always question CK's "matches."  One match I found strange was for Citibank Simplicity.  I had a bunch on Citi cards included in BK-7 back in 2006.  So when CK said my chance of approval was "outstanding," I naturally suspected it.  However, the Citibank prequalify site (no longer available) also listed that I was prequalified for Simplicity.  So after much debate on these forums, I bit the bullet, applied, and was approved for both Simplicity and Diamond Preferred!!  

[nwa479]

I look at the offers from Karma, Experian, WalletHub, Credit Sesame.  I wouldn't trust any of the Karma guarantees or outstanding approval odds.  If you look at review comments you can see several who applied with a guarantee and were rejected. I'm now at 5/24 but the Chase cards still show on all the sites. I get Bank of America matches but I'm past the 3/12 for new accounts so I don't apply.  

I look at these sites to get ideas for future card choices, but if the card issuer has their own prequal site I go there first to apply directly.  

Experian was close on a recent Chase offer for Chase Sapphire Preferred.  It said this offer was shown because my profile met their requirements.  Rather than try the app from Experian, I waited a few weeks later when an offer appeared on the Chase Credit Journey site.  I was approved applying directly on the Chase site.  The offers on Experian disappeared at the start of the next month, so there may be more communication between Chase and Experian.  Alse Chase uses Experian for credit monitoring on Chase Credit Journey.  

I was just notified today by email that the Amex credit monitoring is going to switch from vantage 3.0 to Fico 8 with Experian. So Experian maybe has a better link to card issuers than other sites like Karma.

I would use caution when seeing the outstanding approvals on sites like Karma.  They are not concerned about your success getting a card. The more people they can get to apply the more money they will make.  

[Bill77]

Purely anecdotal but I've used CardMatch several times "succesfully" but there's no way to tell how accurate it is because maybe I would have been approved anyway.

[nwa479]

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@Bill77 wrote:

Purely anecdotal but I've used CardMatch several times "succesfully" but there's no way to tell how accurate it is because maybe I would have been approved anyway.

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I've used cardmatch also.  This summer cardmatch showed I was matched with several Amex cards.  After seeing this a few times along with mailers for the Gold card, I decided to pick an Amex card for pre-approval on their site.  I had previously defaulted on an Amex card maybe 25 years ago for about $1800.  I had heard they'd reject without a hard pull if I was on their blacklist still. Pre-approval was a soft pull.  I accepted the Amex BCE card with a $6,000 SL.  

[FireMedic1]

These sites are going by your Vantage scores they have on you. And its marketing. CK has me as outstanding on cards that wouldnt approve me with a 8 yr old BK. They're not starter cards either.

[Jeffster1]

I don't trust any of them. IMHO. it's purely marketing.

The only time I "bit" was a couple days after my DC when I got the invite for Ollo on one of those sites. My Ollo card is long gone, and so is my interest in the alleged matches.