Historically, I believe the Amex prequalify has been very reliable, however I was just denied this morning. I was also prequalified for the BCE and ED cards, and had a fixed rate.
My history is that I had a chargeoff with Amex about 9 years ago. I have never had anything show up on their prequal, and when I've applied have always been declined without a HP. A couple of weeks ago i started seeing prequal for those two cards and this morning I pulled the trigger. Delinced, due to previous relationship. So, I'm still not off their BL.
For me at least, the prequals almost seem like a glitch in the system. In the past, it seems their system recognized I was on the BL and never showed anything. I was very surprised when something actually showed up, but it looks like it was just a change in their system rather than actually coming off the BL.
So, if you have negative history with Amex I would be a little wary about the prequal. If you don't have anything like that, it's probably still pretty reliable.
My wife and I were just discharged in Aug 2016 and we burned amex in BK for a good amount. In Feb 2017 their pre-qual showed my wife approved for the blue cash card. I was like no way so I had to apply to see. App was sent to further processing and then denied. I recon'd and it took 4 weeks to come back with an answer that was NO lol...
