Hi, I just accepted an offer to upgrade my BCE to BCP for a $150 bonus and no AF for the first year. When would I be able to downgrade the card to avoid getting amex mad at me? 12 mos? 24? I only accepted because of the bonus, but for the future it doesn't make sense for me to keep with the AF.
Thanks 
@multiplicity wrote:Hi, I just accepted an offer to upgrade my BCE to BCP for a $150 bonus and no AF for the first year. When would I be able to downgrade the card to avoid getting amex mad at me? 12 mos? 24? I only accepted because of the bonus, but for the future it doesn't make sense for me to keep with the AF.
Thanks
I'm guessing 24 months but I'd defer to the Amex experts like @K-in-Boston @FinStar and @Aim_High
I would think that point where they charge you the AF is when you call and start negotiating again. Remember downgrading is a effect not a cause. You find the card not to your tastes so you offer AmEx to fix the pain points. If they do, great, if not then you roll out the consequences. Make them work for your business. They only really can do something one sided if you close the account. That is because you are still leaving them a chance to work for you with just a downgrade.
@SouthJamaica wrote:
@multiplicity wrote:Hi, I just accepted an offer to upgrade my BCE to BCP for a $150 bonus and no AF for the first year. When would I be able to downgrade the card to avoid getting amex mad at me? 12 mos? 24? I only accepted because of the bonus, but for the future it doesn't make sense for me to keep with the AF.
I'm guessing 24 months but I'd defer to the Amex experts like @K-in-Boston @FinStar and @Aim_High
I don't consider myself remotely in the same AMEX league as @K-in-Boston or @FinStar, @SouthJamaica, but I'll chime in on the topic. The standard guidance from my understanding is that the absolute minimum someone should product-change after accepting a SUB or upgrade offer with AMEX is 12 months, and AFTER the annual fee posts. Even if you believe up-front that the card won't be useful long-term, that at least gives the perception that you gave it a fair test-drive and didn't get it only to churn the bonus. Calling after the AF posts but before it is paid also puts you more in the driver's seat for potential retention offers since you haven't paid the fee yet. My personal opinion is that depending on your overall relationship with AMEX or your desire for a future relationship, waiting for 24 months is safer. The first hazard with turning cards over too quickly with AMEX is the possible clawback of the SUB from the RAT (Rewards Abuse Team.) The second hazard is whether you're putting a target on your back as a churner who will be denied for SUBs on other new cards. If you get a card with them and only put enough spend on the card to qualify for the SUB, then sock drawer it or greatly reduce the spending, it gets their attention. I went through that on my Gold card where I hit the spending hard for a few months, then tapered off to a steady but lower spending rate. (I planned to keep the card and wasn't just churning the bonus; the SUB spend was just higher than I had planned to put on it routinely.) They denied a SUB on a Hilton card for me within the first twelve months. However, after I took advantage of an enhanced MR offer for extra spending and paid the one year annual fee, I was offered the SUB on my Marriott Bonvoy Brilliant. I'm seriously considering closing my Gold card since I wanted to experiment with MRs but found they don't work as well for me as they do for some cardholders. But I'm waiting until the end of year two when the annual fee posts to make that call. If they offer me a retention bonus, I may keep it for a third year. I was in your situation, @multiplicity, with an upgrade offer from Gold to Platinum. I knew it was unlikely I would want to keep it past 12 months but I considered the upgrade. In the end, I decided the offer wasn't sweet enough to overcome the high effective AF for me.
@pizzadude wrote:Have you run the math on the BCP ? For me it's one of the easiest cards to justify with an AF.
The breakeven point for grocery spending is around $1,600 which would be on average $133 / month.
For me that's a single shopping trip ( if I'm lucky ) so I have no trouble making enough cashback to keep it, not to mention the 3% on gas.
The only problem with $1600 as a break-even point is that you're only trying to cover the annual fee, but not replacing the rewards you would have earned with another card, @pizzadude.
When comparing the Blue Cash Everyday to the Blue Cash Preferred, and since the BCE would earn 3% on groceries with no AF, the breakeven point between those two versions is about double your calculations (or $3200).
- BCE: 3% x 3200 = $96
- BCP: 6% x 3200 = $192 (less the $95 AF) = $97
So at rough numbers, if your grocery/streaming spend to get the 6% is less than $3200 a year, you're probably better off with the BCE and no-AF. If you spend $300 or more, you'll slowly earn more than 3% as you spend up the $6K annual cap. If you spend exactly $6000 and not a penny more, you'll earn an effective NET return of 4.4% (not the gross return of 6% before the AF), before adding in the enhancements of streaming at 6% which is uncapped and counts over the $6K grocery. Of course, if you spend more than $6K on groceries, you're rapidly lowering your rate of return.
I appreciate all the responses! I think I'd just rather use a card like custom cash for 5% on groceries with no AF in the future. I have AOD 3% and venmo card which gets 3% on the top category so the 3% on gas isn't a big draw to me right now. But the card has been in the sock drawer for months since I got a chase card with a 5% grocery bonus, figured I'll take the extra 1% on groceries for as long as it makes sense with no AF plus with the sub I can pay the AF for one year without feeling like I'm really losing out if I need to to remain in amex's good graces.