For our members with more AMEX experience than me, I'm wondering what advice you would give me under the circumstances. I've had my Gold card exactly one year. I carefully selected the Gold and never had any real desire for a Platinum card, since I don't purchase a lot of airfare and don't highly value the AF credits. It just didn't make nearly as much sense for me as the Gold, which excels in earnings on dining and groceries, has a much lower AF, and has (IMO) easier to claim credits. The recent increase on the Platinum AF from $550 to $695 just seemed to reinforce that decision.
I've been gardening for a year and AMEX even preapproved me for a Hilton card in May but then said they'd deny me a SUB due to credit profile. I declined to proceed without the SUB.
Now that my card is a year old, they have offered me an upgrade from Gold to Platinum with a 100K MR SUB for $6K spend/6 months along with a $150 statement credit and 5x MR points at supermarkets and restaurants for six months, up to $25K spending. And apparently, since this would be an "upgrade" or product conversion, it wouldn't entail either a hard pull or a "new account," so I'd still be gardening if I understand this correctly. Adding 100K MRs for no additional credit application seems a sweet deal.
It's a very attractive offer but I'm torn on whether to accept. I'm well aware of their Rewards Abuse Team (RAT) and reputation for disdain for SUB-seeking. Apparently, AMEX recently thought I was seeking excessive rewards, as indicated by the SUB denial. And it would make no sense for me to keep the Platinum beyond one year. I would accept the SUB and then return to my Gold card after one year. The Platinum just doesn't fit my spend and lifestyle.
However, the earnings rate for six months would outperform my Gold; the $150 statement credit lowers the effective AF to $545; and the 100K MRs would more than offset the remainder of the total AF, even at their lowest cash value (.006 ccp) not to mention for higher redemption values. Plus, I could still claim any credits that would work for me. It's not hard to see that I would come out at least a little bit (if not a lot) ahead of just keeping the Gold for the next year.
Should I accept the upgrade offer and downgrade promptly when the AF comes due or am I better off just ignoring it and keeping Gold? I have other plans with AMEX and don't want to "poke the bear" but they are tempting me.
Here are some considerations to help you to take your decision:
- Can you use the Amex benefits for travels/hotels, effectively, due to Covid? How frequently do you expect to travel? How do you book your ticket/hotel? If it is only 1-2 per year, it might be better to switch to travel cards with less AF or even cashback cards.
- The high AF gets paid in cash but you redeem the MR points in future. If not using all benefits of the card regularly, it might not be worth to apply for a card with a high AF.
- What is your MR redeem strategy? Compare it to the other cards with less AF or with cashback cards.
- Can you use Amex monthly benefits (expire after 30 days)? Uber, UberEat, dining credit, Equinox? If they are hard to use for you, think twice before PC or apply for a new card.
PS: I did my homeworks and finally instead of upgrading Gold to Platinum, I even decided to close Gold.
Fico8: EX~EQ~TU~840 (12 month goal~850).
I wouldn't do it, but that's just me, not you! Personally, I don't ever open any kind of account for its bonus, knowing full-well I'm going to close it later, whether it's a bank account, credit card, whatever. I only accept an upgrade offer and its associated SUB when it makes good sense to do so, in the long-run, as in keeping the upgraded product. I did that recently, going from an Amex Blue Cash Everyday to Blue Cash Preferred; they offered a really attractive SUB, and after considering all the pros and cons of actually keeping the account, I chose to accept it.
I'm too lazy to put in all the work involved, all the hoops you have to jump through, all the requirements you have to meet by a certain deadline, etc., to take advantage of a SUB, only to know going in that I won't keep the account. Like I said, though, that's me. If you don't mind putting in the effort and it makes good financial sense for you to do it, go for it! 
My sister (whom I try not to think about) is such a penny-pincher (and millionaire) that she's notorious for opening all kinds of accounts, JUST for their SUB. For example, back when banks gave away toasters and stuff like that for opening an account, she'd go to Bank X, open an account, take the toaster home, and then ASAP close the account. And do the same at Bank Y and Bank Z.... Really?!! I would never do that. Remember when AOL used to send sign-up diskettes ALL THE TIME with free 20 hours or free 40 hours? Well, my sister would use a different credit card every time and sign up for a free account again....and again....and again..... Geesh! I just paid for an account and used it.... *rolling my eyes*
@Eyepinpools wrote:Seems like it really depends on how long you plan to keep the card open. I would consider the SUB to be a net loss over a longer period of time.
Yes, it definitely would be a net loss over time for me, so I would only keep it open for a year at the most. Especially with the higher $695 AF, even with the 100K MR and $150 credit, it's a net loss for me year-over-year. Thanks @Eyepinpools.
@GatorGuy wrote:Most important question is what MR points are worth to YOU. How you redeem them makes all the difference.
Also what is your yearly spend on restaurants and groceries? You'll have 6 months covered with the SUB on the platinum but then need to switch to the CSR for 6 months for restaurants. Do you have a card that can cover groceries for 6 months?
Then compared what MR points you would earn for the year anyway and compare it to the upgrade. If you redeem for atleast 2ccp, this would be a valuable deal for you. If you do minimal redemption, sounds like alot of work for not much gain.
Great questions, @GatorGuy.
"Most important question is what MR points are worth to YOU. How you redeem them makes all the difference."
This is very true, but the problem is I just got into MRs a year ago to experiment with them and I'm not sure about my redemption manner or rate expecations. I do know that I won't redeem for "cash value" (.006). But in all honesty, I'm not a frequent flyer, member of airline travel programs, or someone who would be upgrading to First or Business class on international flights anytime soon. So from what I've read, it seems unlikely I would get the higher rewards or 2 ccp or more. I'm guessing I could expect 1ccp to 1.5 ccp.
" ... what is your yearly spend on restaurants and groceries?"
I don't keep spread sheets so it would be hard to estimate restaurant spend without more analysis. But restaurants are a heavy spend area for me. DW and I are dual-income empty-nesters and often have dinner out. Also, I purchase food many times a week on the road since I travel regularly. That's why I like cards that earn well on dining out like AMEX Gold, Chase Sapphire Reserve, and Bank of America Premium Rewards.
"If you do minimal redemption, sounds like alot of work for not much gain."
Agreed, and that's why I'm on the fence. I'm not sure of the redemption rate I can expect (or) how much of the Platinum credit's I'll be able to utilize so the net difference between Gold and Platinum is difficult to estimate.
@simplynoir wrote:To me this depends on what other cards you want to grab the signup bonus for and how your spending looks with AMEX
The first one I mention because if someone doesn't really put spending on their cards even if they didn't close them persay AMEX still looks at that as the customer only spending enough to satisfy the SUB requirements and left the card alone. With that someone can get the dreaded popup where the person is not SUB eligible. Now, the second point I made on spending is that can be negated depending on how your spending overall with AMEX is. There have been datapoints reported on Doctor of Credit, reddit and here too where putting a good chunk of spend for several months opens up the doors again to SUB eligibility
I know there are a few here who upgrade from the BCE to BCP, get the SUB and enjoy whatever category spending that benefits them and downgrade when the AF comes due. Then AMEX sends another upgrade offer after some time has passed. Just depends on how your own risk tolerance is and how many cards left with them you really want before playing the "am I eligible game?" with them
Personally, if you're going to come out ahead before downgrading back down in a year I'd do it since you're technically still paying a nice AF to keep the card from Platinum to Gold, you nab some good points, and keep the age/history of the card without any pulls whatsoever. But that's just me
Thanks @simplynoir! The main card I had planned to pursue with AMEX was the Marriott Bonvoy Brilliant since I like my Chase Marriott Bonvoy Boundless but the Brilliant seems to offer even better perks, even at the higher AF. However, if I accepted the Platinum, I could still get the Brilliant before I downgraded Platinum.
" ... if someone doesn't really put spending on their cards even if they didn't close them persay AMEX still looks at that as the customer only spending enough to satisfy the SUB requirements and left the card alone. With that someone can get the dreaded popup where the person is not SUB eligible. Now, the second point I made on spending is that can be negated depending on how your spending overall with AMEX is. There have been datapoints reported on Doctor of Credit, reddit and here too where putting a good chunk of spend for several months opens up the doors again to SUB eligibility."
This ^ describes precisely what happened to me. I put heavier spend on the card in the early months to meet the SUB, even though I mainly got it for the 4x categories of dining and groceries. I did intend to keep the card for the long haul but not to continue to use it exclusively. So even though I continued to put spend on the card, maybe it was low enough to make AMEX question my intentions. Then, when I increased my spending to meet an offer of 9K MR points for $9K spend, that seemed to trigger the Platinum offer.
" ... Just depends on how your own risk tolerance is and how many cards left with them you really want..."
Great point. While there aren't a ton of cards I want to get with them, I also don't want to burn any bridges or mark myself with them due to my profile. Yes, I'm pretty sure I would come out ahead but as I discussed with @GatorGuy, just unsure of how much. If it works out to only a small improvement in the overall picture after jumping through all the hoops to convert the card back and forth, just unsure if it's worth it. And doubly not worth it if it inhibits my approval on other products later on.