cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 

What do you think of falling defaults and lowering of CC Debt?

tag
Open123
Super Contributor

What do you think of falling defaults and lowering of CC Debt?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/moneybuilder/2012/06/21/further-declines-in-credit-card-defaults-and-del...

 

Apparently, credit card defaults and outstanding balances are decreasing.  

 

In your view, is this a good thing?  Good or bad for the economy, given that the US GDP is comprised of roughly 70% of consumer consumption?

 

PS - Notice Amex and Discover have far and away the lowest default rates and highest CC customer service satisfaction.  Coincidence?

Message 1 of 16
15 REPLIES 15
bs6054
Valued Contributor

Re: What do you think of falling defaults and lowering of CC Debt?

That was June 2012.  Later on...

 

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/nov/20/business/la-fi-mo-consumer-default-credit-card-mortgage-expe...

 

 

Tldr version: 

Consumer default rates rose in October for first time this year
Message 2 of 16
FutureBillionaire
Established Contributor

Re: What do you think of falling defaults and lowering of CC Debt?


@Open123 wrote:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/moneybuilder/2012/06/21/further-declines-in-credit-card-defaults-and-del...

 

Apparently, credit card defaults and outstanding balances are decreasing.  

 

In your view, is this a good thing?  Good or bad for the economy, given that the US GDP is comprised of roughly 70% of consumer consumption?

 

PS - Notice Amex and Discover have far and away the lowest default rates and highest CC customer service satisfaction.  Coincidence?


It's bad for our economy in the short run, but good in the long run.  Hopefully, folks won't get in over their heads and be unable to pay their other bills.  If we spend smarter, we will have the growth that we need.  I think the growth will be sustainable , even if it is slower.

Gas: Discover It, Penfed Platinum Rewards x2, Chase freedom, Citi TYP
Plane tickets: CSP
Groceries: AMEX BCP, Penfed Platinum Rewards,Citi TYP
Clothes: Express, Amex BCP, Discover IT
Amazon: Citi Forward, Cash +
Restaurants: Citi Forward, Chase Freedom, Discover IT, CSP
Hotels and other travel: Discover Escape, CSP
Movies: BofA travel rewards visa signature(fandango), Discover IT, Citi Forward, Freedom
Bars, clubs, tomfoolery: CSP, Citi Forward, Discover IT, Freedom
Balance transfers: Kroger 123 rewards
Bill Pay: Chase Ink Plus, Citi Forward,
Everyday spending: Bofa Accelerated cash rewards amex, Discover Escape
Message 3 of 16
bs6054
Valued Contributor

Re: What do you think of falling defaults and lowering of CC Debt?

And rose again in Nov

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/12/29/credit-card-defaults-rose-last-month/

 

but that is apparently seasonally expected.  Only Discover and BoA showed continued decrease in charge offs.

Message 4 of 16
Open123
Super Contributor

Re: What do you think of falling defaults and lowering of CC Debt?


@bs6054 wrote:

And rose again in Nov

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/12/29/credit-card-defaults-rose-last-month/

 

but that is apparently seasonally expected.  Only Discover and BoA showed continued decrease in charge offs.


Interesting and surprising (for me) that BofA showed continued decrease in charge offs.  Perhaps, they're actually implementing something effective?

Message 5 of 16
Revelate
Moderator Emeritus

Re: What do you think of falling defaults and lowering of CC Debt?


@Open123 wrote:

@bs6054 wrote:

And rose again in Nov

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/12/29/credit-card-defaults-rose-last-month/

 

but that is apparently seasonally expected.  Only Discover and BoA showed continued decrease in charge offs.


Interesting and surprising (for me) that BofA showed continued decrease in charge offs.  Perhaps, they're actually implementing something effective?


Charge off reduction I think is from policies that were implemented much earlier; there's some period of "OK do we close this tradeline or not" followed by collections activity by some period of time, and then if it's deemed unrecoverable they may charge it off; however, it's usually not an immediate thing but admittedly I don't know the timeline but I suspect it's measured in years.

 

I think the major change was in FIA CLI policies; they don't appear to be anywhere as rosy as previously.  Also I think from reading some posts here sometime during the mortgage crisis they became uberzealous for closing cards at any hint of trouble - I went 30/60 late when unemployed (and being stupid admittedly) paid it all off the following month and they closed the tradeline immediately.

 

Admittedly it could just be an accounting trick too; personal finances are in a better spot than they were previously, so now BOFA might simply be more lenient than previously assuming they think they have a higher chance to actually see a return on the investment, they may simply be charging off fewer accounts.

 

Not certain we can really pull much besides SWAG's with regards to any given lender unfortunately which is about all I have.

 

 




        
Message 6 of 16
drkaje
Senior Contributor

Re: What do you think of falling defaults and lowering of CC Debt?

It's a good thing.

 

We can't really build a solid economy with tons of people living beyond their means and a paycheck or two away from BK.


Starting Score: 675
Current Score: EX 753 FICO, EQ 737FICO, TU 738
Goal Score: 776 FICO


Take the FICO Fitness Challenge
Message 7 of 16
SnackTrader
Valued Contributor

Re: What do you think of falling defaults and lowering of CC Debt?


@Revelate wrote:

@Open123 wrote:

@bs6054 wrote:

And rose again in Nov

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/12/29/credit-card-defaults-rose-last-month/

 

but that is apparently seasonally expected.  Only Discover and BoA showed continued decrease in charge offs.


Interesting and surprising (for me) that BofA showed continued decrease in charge offs.  Perhaps, they're actually implementing something effective?


Charge off reduction I think is from policies that were implemented much earlier; there's some period of "OK do we close this tradeline or not" followed by collections activity by some period of time, and then if it's deemed unrecoverable they may charge it off; however, it's usually not an immediate thing but admittedly I don't know the timeline but I suspect it's measured in years.

 

I think the major change was in FIA CLI policies; they don't appear to be anywhere as rosy as previously.  Also I think from reading some posts here sometime during the mortgage crisis they became uberzealous for closing cards at any hint of trouble - I went 30/60 late when unemployed (and being stupid admittedly) paid it all off the following month and they closed the tradeline immediately.

 

Admittedly it could just be an accounting trick too; personal finances are in a better spot than they were previously, so now BOFA might simply be more lenient than previously assuming they think they have a higher chance to actually see a return on the investment, they may simply be charging off fewer accounts.

 

Not certain we can really pull much besides SWAG's with regards to any given lender unfortunately which is about all I have.

 

 


Can you clarify what you mean here a little more, Revelate?


In My Wallet: Amex BCP (12/12) $50,000, Chase Freedom (12/12) $16,500, Cap1 Quicksilver (6/12) $14,000, Barclaycard Rewards (5/13) $10,500, Citi Prestige (4/16) $30,000

Last App: June 27, 2015
Message 8 of 16
bs6054
Valued Contributor

Re: What do you think of falling defaults and lowering of CC Debt?

I think what Revelate means is that charge off (when the issuer writes off the debt) is at the end of long process (late, default, collection, writeoff) and so any improvement in the figures, if not random, is due to policies implemented much earlier.

 

So if a bank today discovers the magic formula for users who will default, and don't issue those people any cards, the bank will still see charge offs for many months or years, as existing accounts go into default.

Message 9 of 16
chnceit
Valued Contributor

Re: What do you think of falling defaults and lowering of CC Debt?

This is awesome news! 


Last Pulled EQ: 809
Last Credit Card App: 02/05/2016
Last CLI: 02/06/2016
Find Me: Gardening
Message 10 of 16
Advertiser Disclosure: The offers that appear on this site are from third party advertisers from whom FICO receives compensation.