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Apparently, credit card defaults and outstanding balances are decreasing.
In your view, is this a good thing? Good or bad for the economy, given that the US GDP is comprised of roughly 70% of consumer consumption?
PS - Notice Amex and Discover have far and away the lowest default rates and highest CC customer service satisfaction. Coincidence?
That was June 2012. Later on...
Tldr version:
@Open123 wrote:
Apparently, credit card defaults and outstanding balances are decreasing.
In your view, is this a good thing? Good or bad for the economy, given that the US GDP is comprised of roughly 70% of consumer consumption?
PS - Notice Amex and Discover have far and away the lowest default rates and highest CC customer service satisfaction. Coincidence?
It's bad for our economy in the short run, but good in the long run. Hopefully, folks won't get in over their heads and be unable to pay their other bills. If we spend smarter, we will have the growth that we need. I think the growth will be sustainable , even if it is slower.
And rose again in Nov
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/12/29/credit-card-defaults-rose-last-month/
but that is apparently seasonally expected. Only Discover and BoA showed continued decrease in charge offs.
@bs6054 wrote:And rose again in Nov
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/12/29/credit-card-defaults-rose-last-month/
but that is apparently seasonally expected. Only Discover and BoA showed continued decrease in charge offs.
Interesting and surprising (for me) that BofA showed continued decrease in charge offs. Perhaps, they're actually implementing something effective?
@Open123 wrote:
@bs6054 wrote:And rose again in Nov
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/12/29/credit-card-defaults-rose-last-month/
but that is apparently seasonally expected. Only Discover and BoA showed continued decrease in charge offs.
Interesting and surprising (for me) that BofA showed continued decrease in charge offs. Perhaps, they're actually implementing something effective?
Charge off reduction I think is from policies that were implemented much earlier; there's some period of "OK do we close this tradeline or not" followed by collections activity by some period of time, and then if it's deemed unrecoverable they may charge it off; however, it's usually not an immediate thing but admittedly I don't know the timeline but I suspect it's measured in years.
I think the major change was in FIA CLI policies; they don't appear to be anywhere as rosy as previously. Also I think from reading some posts here sometime during the mortgage crisis they became uberzealous for closing cards at any hint of trouble - I went 30/60 late when unemployed (and being stupid admittedly) paid it all off the following month and they closed the tradeline immediately.
Admittedly it could just be an accounting trick too; personal finances are in a better spot than they were previously, so now BOFA might simply be more lenient than previously assuming they think they have a higher chance to actually see a return on the investment, they may simply be charging off fewer accounts.
Not certain we can really pull much besides SWAG's with regards to any given lender unfortunately which is about all I have.
It's a good thing.
We can't really build a solid economy with tons of people living beyond their means and a paycheck or two away from BK.
@Revelate wrote:
@Open123 wrote:
@bs6054 wrote:And rose again in Nov
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/12/29/credit-card-defaults-rose-last-month/
but that is apparently seasonally expected. Only Discover and BoA showed continued decrease in charge offs.
Interesting and surprising (for me) that BofA showed continued decrease in charge offs. Perhaps, they're actually implementing something effective?
Charge off reduction I think is from policies that were implemented much earlier; there's some period of "OK do we close this tradeline or not" followed by collections activity by some period of time, and then if it's deemed unrecoverable they may charge it off; however, it's usually not an immediate thing but admittedly I don't know the timeline but I suspect it's measured in years.
I think the major change was in FIA CLI policies; they don't appear to be anywhere as rosy as previously. Also I think from reading some posts here sometime during the mortgage crisis they became uberzealous for closing cards at any hint of trouble - I went 30/60 late when unemployed (and being stupid admittedly) paid it all off the following month and they closed the tradeline immediately.
Admittedly it could just be an accounting trick too; personal finances are in a better spot than they were previously, so now BOFA might simply be more lenient than previously assuming they think they have a higher chance to actually see a return on the investment, they may simply be charging off fewer accounts.
Not certain we can really pull much besides SWAG's with regards to any given lender unfortunately which is about all I have.
Can you clarify what you mean here a little more, Revelate?
I think what Revelate means is that charge off (when the issuer writes off the debt) is at the end of long process (late, default, collection, writeoff) and so any improvement in the figures, if not random, is due to policies implemented much earlier.
So if a bank today discovers the magic formula for users who will default, and don't issue those people any cards, the bank will still see charge offs for many months or years, as existing accounts go into default.
This is awesome news!