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Unfortunately depending on how much people plan on spending this Christmas I expect this to become worse in the 1st quarter of 2025.
What does this mean who knows because the auto and home payments are still on par even if auto is slightly higher than normal.
I've heard some people in their 20s say they are going to run up the cards then file for bankruptcy. Or they hope the government will force the credit card companies to "help" them out by writing off the debt.
Well, for quite some time now the US economy has been built on bubbles and frauds and debts and lies, and "animal spirits" on Wall Street.
But like George Carlin once said, "You're about to have one of those elections you like so much and congratulations, I'm sure your country will improve immediately."
We get a reversal of the north and south magnetic poles every 450,000 years or so, but it takes much less time to get a reversal on who thinks the economy is doing well. Just a week after this election, Republicans think that this economy is doing fine, and Democrats are responding that we're screwed, when absolutely nothing has changed, except things are already getting worse and we aren't even to Inauguration Day yet. The interest on a $500,000 mortgage for thirty years is already $50,000 more than it was the day before Election Day, and the funnin's just begunnin'. Hold onto your hat.
It interests me greatly that we have the facts and figures showing that this economy is flying apart, we know that the deficit will surely get worse under the new regime than the CBO baseline, which was already horrible, and Republicans are "feeling great" about it.
They sort of have to say that now, I guess. When people are throwing the keys in the mailbox and the big pile of delinquent credit card debt becomes officially charged off, I wonder what they'll say.
Instead of focusing on how to rebuild the middle class, companies like Walmart use generative "AI" to figure out how to sell you more crap you don't need, which goes right on a credit card. My spouse works there and we get a thing every year. I just got one. That says we get 25% off one shopping trip. I usually don't use it.
Someone on these very forums was telling me the other day I'm a "failure" for not "buying" a house. Very few people "own" a house, most people just have a pile of debt, interest, and tax following them around for years and preventing them from moving to take a better job or because the local area is now intolerable. If you don't remain employed for 30 years, the bank kicks you out and sues you. It's like an eviction....on steroids, and the bank doesn't fix anything that goes wrong with the house.
@MrDuck wrote:Unfortunately depending on how much people plan on spending this Christmas I expect this to become worse in the 1st quarter of 2025.
What does this mean who knows because the auto and home payments are still on par even if auto is slightly higher than normal.
I've heard some people in their 20s say they are going to run up the cards then file for bankruptcy. Or they hope the government will force the credit card companies to "help" them out by writing off the debt.
The benefit of not having Christmas means you don't spend money on Christmas, I suppose. You can choose your enemies, and you can choose your friends, but you can't choose your family. I don't have any family members that I could sit next to at the Holidays who wouldn't try to start a war at the dinner table somehow. Your options are to shout at them and become "unreasonable" and give in to the trolling, or sit there and take it and leave dinner with impressions of the silverware embedded in your hands.
All those stores using algorithms, like everyone does these days, in a society that's become utterly twisted and evil, to get people to spend more money than they meant to. Guilt spending. Retail therapy. Credit card debt.
They don't really care what you spend the credit card money on. Their entire goal is to get you to load up to the point you'll never pay them back, just make interest payments in return for not being sued for another month. That's all they want from people, and most go along so willingly.
My spouse took a vacation day on "Black Friday" but it goes on all month now. People loading up credit cards on TVs when they already have a TV, coffee makers, cheap laptops that barely run, and most of this stuff will be broken and in a landfill in a matter of months. Wash, rinse, repeat. But the debt stays.
I finally realized what was going on with Walmart some time ago. You could buy one good thing, but it costs a lot, so you go to Walmart, and then you buy one cheap thing that breaks every few months.
Walmart collects a lot of economic data though. The real reason they got out of the Capital One deal was because they agreed to share the credit default risk, and Walmart knew their customer and knew which way the wind was blowing.
Certainly it will get worse, after Christmas. People like my mother, loading up credit cards and having 72 cents in the bank. Treating it like imaginary money that doesn't need to be paid back. Her whole side of the family got that from my grandmother.
As for me, $0 debt $0 interest.
I am genuinely concerned about this nation's sick addiction to debt and how long this can keep getting worse and worse. The bankruptcy courts have apparently, to now, been mostly quiet, although corporate bankruptcies have gone off the charts. I expect things to continue to deteriorate until something breaks.
The next administration isn't going to help people with their credit card debt. The last time this party did anything with bankruptcy, they made it much harder to file for Chapter 7 or get a discharge. The "Bankruptcy reform" was written by credit card companies and handed to them by lobbyists. That's how business gets done today. These people will be lucky if there's not a round 2 that just gets rid of personal bankruptcies entirely. We're in for the duration and next Thanksgiving or the one after next, we can all gather around the dinner table and discuss the state of the economy.
Delinquent debt is still a problem all these years later and it's mostly because of lax lending standards like not making sure people have a job or money and just giving out credit cards with high limits like Pez.
When you completely remove the concept of "make a dollar" from spending a dollar, you end up with people who spend more than they make and end up in a horrible mess.
Capital One offers "free" "financial literacy" courses from the Khan Academy, but this is useless. It's like, third grade math. Like "You need $500 to buy an air conditioner in 11 months, so how much do you need to save each month to buy an air conditioner?"
As I expected from a vicious sub-prime bank, there were no lessons on living within your means, finding additional sources of income, or how a little austerity is good for your household budget, just basic math problems like how much you needed to save to buy an air conditioner.
This country is in bad trouble if you have people out there who don't know that there's a place to go when you're broke, honey, and it's called work.
What makes credit cards the devil is this. 90% of people think credit cards are not real money that does need to be paid back. They think that credit cards are free money that the bank gives you because it thinks you are cool, and there's this guy on YouTube telling you how to get more and more and more "available credit".
97% of millionaires use credit cards. They pay them back at the end of the month. If you can't pay them back at the end of the month, you're not winning, you're robbing yourself, and you're scooping up all these problems like bills you can't pay and puffing yourself up to look rich when you're actually not, and turning them into a giant problem later, like The Blob eating victim after victim and growing to encompass the entire planet.
And you can starve The Blob by earning more money than you spend. Which means finding more money, or cutting your spending, or both. It's time to put on your big boy pants and go "Look at all these people who are delinquent. What kind of a way is that to live?"
"Good feelings all around!"
And in this corner, most of America is rent burdened and can't pay their credit card bill!
Remember when it was a little over 4% of credit card accounts 90+ days late? I think we called that, ummm, April 2024.
Regardless, I don't even have to follow all the people who are obviously in trouble with credit card debt on Reddit or even Dave Ramsey, but there's plenty of examples on this forum where people have bought a house, couldn't afford the house, started paying for everything with credit card debt, and now their minimum payments are $6,000 and it's all interest.
There are three things I'd like to say.
The first is a line from an old Dionne Warwick song, which goes “A fool will lose tomorrow reaching back for yesterday”. This is very applicable because it describes how credit cards work. You can't pay your bills today because you're stuck paying for yesterday, with interest.
The second is Dave Ramsey. He said something like, "People who buy a house when they have $40,000 in student loan debt have every negative thing in their life activated and amplified. They've moved Sallie Mae into the guest bedroom, and now the heat and air conditioning don't work, the roof is leaking, the hot water heater goes out, and you have no money."
Investor and consumer "confidence" is not equal to "actual" valuations. You might have heard of a guy called Warren Buffett. He sort of does this thing for a living, and he's spent the last several months offloading Capital One and Apple, and others. He's not tuning in to see "what Jim Cramer thinks about Bear Stesrns".
Simply put, we're in an awful recession, and it's getting worse by the day. For a while, they managed to hide it behind colorful euphemisms like 'soft landing,' 'cooling jobs market,' and 'slowing growth,' but those narratives are becoming harder to sell.
Rather than confronting the reality, the powers that be doubled down on the spin, and now they're puzzled as to why things are unraveling so spectacularly.
Next year, we’re looking at a public sector stacked with characters straight out of the World Wrestling Federation, a groomer who’s been the subject of FBI and House investigations for years (and conveniently resigned before anyone could see what’s in the box), a doctor who confessed to Congress that most of his TV advice—like coffee colonics—was utter quackery, and someone who thinks vaccines are harmful (despite the evidence that they lead to more kids surviving into adulthood).
And yet, somehow, these are the people tasked with saving America.
Their leader claimed to have a brilliant plan to tackle credit card debt. Apparently, it involves tariffs.
Now, don't get me wrong, the market eats up everything this guy says, so there will be money pouring in from "that crowd" for a while to come and there may be one last hurrah in the stock market while the real economy continues to fall apart, but the coyote was only able to run off the cliff until he looked down.
I think that another Dave Ramsey quote is pertinent because we're going to get another four years in the dog house. "When you want crops to grow you plant seeds, and pray for the right amount of rain and sunshine. When you want nothing but a field of mud, you stand around, plant nothing, and wait for the government."
Money doesn't just "disappear" from your retirement fund when there's a stock market crash. People who I would label in my opinion as "professional scammers" know how to make off with all of it while shouting "Don't time the market!"
One thing that's consistently held up the stock market, by raw numbers, is inflation. When you price something in dollars, you reprice it in dollars as there is inflation. That is to say the money loses 40% of the value. Well, if the real value of a stock remains unchanged, it still has to be repriced in inflation-adjusted terms. If you look at things purely from this angle alone then an S&P 500 with a valuation of 6,000, for example, becomes a valuation of about 3600 in January of 2021.
One of the neat tricks they have at the store is stealing product from consumers while continuing to raise prices. In the last month, an 11.6 ounce can of Great Value coffee at Walmart became 9.3 ounces. They also changed the can from metal to cardboard, and increased the cost 50 cents. Well, gee, no inflation here, right? Just a 13% price hike for 20% less coffee. "Cool inflation!"