Experian credit score simulator

[Anonymous]

Experian offers a credit score monitoring service where you can view your current Experian score -- it includes a score simulator where you can create various scenarios, and it predicts what your FICO score should be. Any thoughts on how good it is?

I am using Experian to watch my FICO as I have the largest number of INQ's on Experian, and so it should be my LOWEST score. It's reporting FICO 08 I believe. 

Currently it says I have a 704 FICO with 14% utilization on my cards, 8 month oldest account, and 4 month average age. No derogatory inormation.

The little simulator lets me predict my score if I take certain actions. Here are some examples:

Reduce my utilization to 13% score goes 704->709

Reduce my utilization to 8.7% score goes 704->709

Reduce my utilization to 8.6% score goes 704->719

Reduce my utilization to 1% score goes 704->719

And then for waiting times, from where I am today it also has a "garden" prediction in its "pay your bills on time" which shows the impact of doing that for a certain number of months. Starting from my 8 month oldest / 4 month average account age, it predicts:

1-2 months 704->704 

3-5 months 704->714 

5-11 months 704->736

12-17 months 704->759

18-23 months 704->764

24 months 704->769

If my goal is to hit 760 before applying for a mortgage, it looks like it'll take 12 months to garden my way to 759 and then pick up a few points from utilization to push me over the edge.

Sooooooo....... any thoughts on how accurate this is? If they are actually running projections through the real FICO algorithm then this gives a LOT of inisght into how FICO works. Or is their projection some kind of FAKO? Taking a real FICO and fudging it with PLUS-like guesses?

[Anonymous]

The good news is that it's pretty accurate based on my experience.

The bad news is that mortgage lenders don't use Fico 08 when reviewing your credit so it's got little value when shopping for a home.

I've seen differences as high as 100 points between Fico 8 and 2. The challenge is that some of these scores aren't available to consumers and the only way to find out where your score truly lies in lenders' eyes is by having them pull your credit.

[takeshi74]

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@Anonymous wrote:

I am using Experian to watch my FICO as I have the largest number of INQ's on Experian, and so it should be my LOWEST score.

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Only if all the data is the same among the 3.  Make sure before running with that.

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@Anonymous wrote:

Sooooooo....... any thoughts on how accurate this is? If they are actually running projections through the real FICO algorithm then this gives a LOT of inisght into how FICO works. Or is their projection some kind of FAKO? Taking a real FICO and fudging it with PLUS-like guesses? 

As always, scoring model matters even with FICO.  It's not simply a matter of FICO versus FAKO despite how many discussions may make it seem that way but any scoring model versus any other scoring model.  Do not assume that all FICO models produce the same numbers or even close numbers.  Always assume different algorthims to produce different results.  As stated above, many mortgage lenders do not use FICO 8 so even if the simulator is 100% accurate for FICO 8 (doubtful) it wouldn't be for the other models that many mortgage lenders use.

See if your mortgage lender uses one of the models that myFICO now offers in addition to FICO 8.

http://ficoforums.myfico.com/t5/Understanding-FICO-Scoring/The-many-flavors-of-FICO-Editions-versions-and-variations/td-p/1197617

[Anonymous]

OK, some data on this thing -- it is actually the same planner thing that myfico is using. 

And I now know that it's wrong. I posted its predictions a month ago, it predicted that if I lowered my utilization from 15% to a low number i could get a 15 point bump. Well, I did that, I lowered it to 3%, and I only got a 5 point bump. I guess anyone could tell you that I would get a bump -- the size of the bump was not correctly predicted by the predictor logic. So, I have no idea how good it really is.

[Anonymous]

Today: three point bump on myfico Equifax compared to a planning took prediction is a fifteen point bump.

So that score simulator is pretty inaccurate.

[Anonymous]

If your paying full price call them up and tell em its too expensive.

Many members have gotten it down to 9-11/mo.

[Revelate]

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@Anonymous wrote:

OK, some data on this thing -- it is actually the same planner thing that myfico is using. 

And I now know that it's wrong. I posted its predictions a month ago, it predicted that if I lowered my utilization from 15% to a low number i could get a 15 point bump. Well, I did that, I lowered it to 3%, and I only got a 5 point bump. I guess anyone could tell you that I would get a bump -- the size of the bump was not correctly predicted by the predictor logic. So, I have no idea how good it really is.

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Sounds like that was part of the deal then as I'm pretty certain myFICO's simulator was developed by FICO consumer based on some statements I recall from my past days as a moderator when they were rolling out the updates.

Any simulator has to be taken with a grain of salt, and unless your score was in the upper gold-plated echelons I wouldn't have figured 15% to 3% aggregate would be a 15 point bump for whatever that is worth.

[WaterOverFire]

Months have now passed... Any updates on the accuracy of this? I know you mentioned after a couple months that you didn't feel it was accurate... But how about several months passing? Thank you.

[Anonymous]

I think it gives s good general idea of where you are trending, but I think it does that without using very much information from your file. It doesn't take into account actual account dates or the anniversaries of HP's or anything like that.

More like, historically people with a similar profile have seen an average increase of X points by making timely payments for Y months.

In the that sense it can help ballpark where you will be in a year, but it is not that accurate, and the specific credit score increases and dates of those increases it doesn't simulate.

[Anonymous]

Something to keep in mind though, the simulator here uses the data from your last updated report which could potentially be weeks or months old. Experian CT updates your report daily and the simulator will use that for making the estimates.

While not an exact measure, it's been fairly accurate in my experience.