How accurate is the simulator on this site?

[marillion]

How accurate is the myFICO simulator? Is the simulator predicting what my scores will be updated to when my credit report refreshes for the month? I ask that because I'm not seeing a ton of movement on the day-to-day updates after the "alerts" come in even though the alerts are recording the payments/payoffs I've made to my credit cards.

[FireMedic1]

Its just about the same as any other simulator. It does go by FICO more than Vantage. But I wouldnt put too much in to it.

[Patient957]

I personally have found it to be very accurate, within a handful of points of what actually eventually happened.

My post with DPs here:

https://ficoforums.myfico.com/t5/General-Credit-Topics/The-myFICO-Score-Simulator-Sucks/m-p/6816245

[FICOdawg]

From messing around with it, you need something like the MyFICO which gives you multiple scenarios at once which is a better predictor.

The creditwiae simulator is limited as it only lets you try one variable at at time but it gives you a basic idea of magnitude of change for each parameter.

[Horseshoez]

I would argue there are so many variables, hundreds, or even thousands, which go onto any given credit score, there is no such a thing as an accurate simulator.

[Patient957]

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@Horseshoez wrote:

I would argue there are so many variables, hundreds, or even thousands, which go onto any given credit score, there is no such a thing as an accurate simulator.

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If a Fico model is able to generate an accurate credit score based on a credit report (which nobody here is arguing it isn't), then why couldn't it also generate an accurate credit score based on that same credit report plus a few simulated changes?  It's the exact same model.  The same number of possible variables.

The reason non-Fico simulators are not accurate is because they aren't using a Fico model.  They're guessing at how the Fico model works, like us here on these boards, because the models are proprietary trade secrets.  But Fico the company doesn't need to guess.  They own the models, which they can use however they want, even with partially simulated data.  

Simulations are just a credit report modified by a set of assumptions (i.e. simulated changes) and fed into a model.  If that model happens to be Fico 8, then the results will be  accurate for Fico 8 given the data set with said assumptions.  It has to be.  The model is the model.

If you feed the same data into some bull crud model that isn't Fico 8 but purports to simulate Fico 8, then expect bull crud on the output side too.

[JoeRockhead]

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@Patient957 wrote:

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@Horseshoez wrote:

I would argue there are so many variables, hundreds, or even thousands, which go onto any given credit score, there is no such a thing as an accurate simulator.

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If a Fico model is able to generate an accurate credit score based on a credit report (which nobody here is arguing it isn't), then why couldn't it also generate an accurate credit score based on that same credit report plus a few simulated changes?  It's the exact same model.  The same number of possible variables.

The reason non-Fico simulators are not accurate is because they aren't using a Fico model.  They're guessing at how the Fico model works, like us here on these boards, because the models are proprietary trade secrets.  But Fico the company doesn't need to guess.  They own the models, which they can use however they want, even with partially simulated data.  

Simulations are just a credit report modified by a set of assumptions (i.e. simulated changes) and fed into a model.  If that model happens to be Fico 8, then the results will be  accurate for Fico 8 given the data set with said assumptions.  It has to be.  The model is the model.

If you feed the same data into some bull crud model that isn't Fico 8 but purports to simulate Fico 8, then expect bull crud on the output side too.

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The problem with simulators, even myFICO simulators are they use estimates, not the actual live scoring model algorithms used by lenders. Those FICO scores are calculated using real-time, nuanced data and profile context that simulators have no ability to fully replicate.  Simulators are made to use a set of generalized scenarios, therefore they'll never be a one size fits all application.  What might work as fairly accurate to one person, won't for another. 

So, while Fico's simulator might be a bit better than other rando simulators,  all simulators should be viewed as for entertainment purposes only. 

[FICOdawg]

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@Horseshoez wrote:

I would argue there are so many variables, hundreds, or even thousands, which go onto any given credit score, there is no such a thing as an accurate simulator.

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I think it depends on the varible(s) being changed.   Things like utlization/paying down cards(s) or adding age to accounts are probably pretty accurate.     

[Horseshoez]

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@FICOdawg wrote:

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@Horseshoez wrote:

I would argue there are so many variables, hundreds, or even thousands, which go onto any given credit score, there is no such a thing as an accurate simulator.

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I think it depends on the varible(s) being changed.   Things like utlization/paying down cards(s) or adding age to accounts are probably pretty accurate.     

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I completely disagree, even with those things, the rest of one's profile will dramatically color any score changes  when any of those metrics change.  The fact is, FICO scoring is extremely complex; there isn't a simulator anywhere which is even remotely accurate for any given individual.  Yes, some might happen to get lucky, but others won't even be in the ballpark.

[FICOdawg]

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@Horseshoez wrote:

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@FICOdawg wrote:

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@Horseshoez wrote:

I would argue there are so many variables, hundreds, or even thousands, which go onto any given credit score, there is no such a thing as an accurate simulator.

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I think it depends on the varible(s) being changed.   Things like utlization/paying down cards(s) or adding age to accounts are probably pretty accurate.     

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I completely disagree, even with those things, the rest of one's profile will dramatically color any score changes  when any of those metrics change.  The fact is, FICO scoring is extremely complex; there isn't a simulator anywhere which is even remotely accurate for any given individual.  Yes, some might happen to get lucky, but others won't even be in the ballpark.

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There is no real way for us to validate and I agree there are a lot of variables.   However, I would assume many cases where a single variable changes like age or paying down CC utilisation it would be in the ballpark.

 
Woukd be interesting to know if myfico simulator also knows what scorecard you're on.

I think the answer for myfico is probably more accurate than creditwise, Chase Credit journey etc.

My variables arent that complex on my credit profile and thus far it's been fairly close.   Luck or accuracy, I'll see in December or January when I pay off the last of my CC debt and I'm at 0/12.   

Example would be does the similar not only age the account but assess and utilisation threshold crossing from payment.