@crystal626 wrote:
@FicoMike0 wrote:
Were having a cool down here in central oh10 as well. It's called Autumn, happens every year here. It's 60 and overcast.
As far as global warming, I just checked the measured data, Jan 1979 through Sept 2026 lower troposphere linear trend is 0.16 C / decade. By my arithmetic, that's 375 years for 6 C. I doubt any of us will live that long. That assumes that the an ice age, which we re overdue for, or something else, doesn't interfere.
I know there are guys with video game models that keep predicting greater warming and they've been consistently wrong. Years ago, I spent some time looking at one of those. Most of the effect is due to "positive feedback of unknown mechanism" . The models are fudged to predict greater warming.
As far as the ocean level and glacier melting is concerned, that's a misunderstanding held by those who I haven't done the math. There really isn't that much ice available to melt. The real threat of ocean level rise is due to thermal expansion of the ocean water. This is a little complicated because the ocean temp varies with depth and maximum density occures well above the freezing point. A large factor is that the average ocean depth is about a mile, a square square inch of ocean is sitting on a huge column of sea water.
Before we get carried away applying the above warming rate to ocean water, keep in mind that number applies to the atmosphere, not the ocean, which warms much more slowly. The hest capacity of the oceans is more than 1000 times that of the atmosphere.
I can tell you that locally, we are absolutely warming. Our average annual temperature is up 1.6F since 1970 and our summer season specifically is up 2.6F on average. Our top 11 highest years with the most 90+ days have been since 1994, which means almost 1/3rd of those years have been insanely hot. They're predicting we will have 40 days of 94+ temps by 2050, up from 11 now, and 5.5F higher temps. The fire risk at that kind of a temperature increase will be exponential and we already have some of the worst fires in the country, with only Hawaii having more economic damage from fires thanks to the Marshall fire costing $2B in insured losses alone.
There is a reason that they shifted from calling it "global warming" to "climate change" because impacts are not going to be linear across the globe. Some places are warming, which is setting off a cascade of weather effects around the world. Just look at the absurd hurricane season this year.
I've never seen the midwest this oppressively hot and humid. There are now several weeks of summer where it's oppressive and you can barely even leave an air conditioned building. Routinely.
It still snows, but not like it did when I was a child where you got several feet and everything was canceled. We used to get that nearly every winter and I haven't seen that in over ten years.
I used to be pretty on the fence about global warming but then all of these ridiculous things started happening that I had never seen before and it just didn't stop. I think the first realyl awful year was around 2012, that year we had two weeks were it was over 110 degrees during the day and all the reservoirs completely dried up. One day it got to 119.
My landlord had provided an air conditioner but it was only 6000 BTU. It was okay for a 90 degree day but not a 119 degree day.
Until 2012, I had no idea it could get to 119 in Indiana. Now it's just a thing that happens, and these Climate Deniers don't even consider it odd.
I remember it vividly because it was so bizarre. I went to Aldi, in Huntington, that day, and when I came out with my groceries and put them in the trunk I was already sweating so bad within 10 minutes that it looked like I got out of a swimming pool. Pretty much the entire corn crop died that year.
I didn't tell him I already had a 5000 BTU model from an earlier apartment that was really cheap but didn't have an air conditioner, so I put that one in the other window and fired it up. He didn't notice. He was paying the electric bill.
Like most landlords, he lied sometimes, not always. He wasn't the worst. He called me one winter and said my electric bill had been going over budget for months and according to the lease I had to pay the overage. I said "Okay, just show me the bills where it went over and I'll write you a check for that." He never said anything about it again. They never do when they lie.
Oddly, the summer of 2013 was when it opened up and rained for so many days without stopping that I had the Little River 5 feet away from my apartment. It actually flooded out half the apartment complex.
The owners said that the place went in back in 1974 and that this had never happened before. The reservoirs overflowed and the Army had to come out and pop open the dam before the emergency spillway overflowed. The state parks were under several feet of water. You couldn't go back there.
Now Illinois is the new Tornado Alley. We set records for the most tornadoes in one season this year and the most in the country. The states that always get them didn't really get any.
Armadillos are starting to appear. Their range has increased into southern Indiana and Illinois.
Anyway, as far as global heating goes, we have the insurance premiums to prove it. When I was a child, my father only ever had to make a claim on the homeowner's insurance one time. We had a funnel cloud go over our house and tear up part of the roof. The claim was for a roofing company to come out and re-tile the roof.
But now, homeowner's insurance is getting so expensive that in some states, like Florida, most people are going uninsured. They can't pay the premium and they'll be homeless if anything happens. They are literally gambling that their home will be spared the next hurricane.
But even worse, we have insurance companies exporting their losses from southern states into Illinois. We've had to pass new insurance laws that forbid them from charging us for risk from other states. It's unclear how much good that will do if the tornado problem keeps up.
This doesn't just affect homeowner's insurance, it affects car insurance too. When more cars get beaten up by hail or carried off by a tornado and land somewhere in the next county, the insurance companies absolutely raise rates.
