30 day late - 3 year threshold?

[Anonymous]

I have a 30-day late on my mortgage from Oct. 2015.  Payment history since then is perfect and I have no late payments on any of my other accounts.  Should I expect a score bump once that late payment ages over the 3 year mark?

Here is a look at my current FICO scores I have access to, their sources and dates.  I'm really hoping for a bump with TU specifically.

[Revelate]

I don't think there's exact data on age breakpoints for lates; there's some solid estimated data on late aging floating around that I'm certain someone will post (I don't have it handy), but I think the bigger question is what else is depressing your scores, as several years history and just a 30D late from a few years ago can reach higher scores on FICO 8 than 700 by a large margin.

[Anonymous]

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@Revelate wrote:

I don't think there's exact data on age breakpoints for lates; there's some solid estimated data on late aging floating around that I'm certain someone will post (I don't have it handy), but I think the bigger question is what else is depressing your scores, as several years history and just a 30D late from a few years ago can reach higher scores on FICO 8 than 700 by a large margin.

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I am rebuilding post a BK13 from 2011 falling off my reports.  My mortgage account has many lates prior to 06/2015 before I did a HARP modification.  Other factors holding me back: 

 - My mortgage balance is higher than the original loan amount.  Before the modification I hadn't paid in a long time, and I paid the price for it.

 - All open CC accounts (5) are < 1 year old, three were opened in April

 - Balance on two cards > 30% (I do PIF all cards, but I'm not concerned with balances reporting until I need to apply for new credit, which won't be until early next year)

 - Total Utilization is > 10%

 - I do have several closed CC's in good standing keeping my age of accounts fairly old for now.

 - I have a Self Lender loan still at around 70% Utilization

I'm really just wondering if I should expect a score increase after my most recent late ages past 3 years.  I realize there are many other factors involved.

[Revelate]

Ah whoopsie I misread.  Congrats on getting through the CH13!

I doubt you'll see something at the 3 year mark, if you do it'll probably be lost in the noise and hard to isolate but I suspect you're going to be on an upward trajectory anyway as your new accounts age and the negatives keep falling further behind... age matters, just 3 years seems doubtful to me personally but I don't have any hard data on that.

[Anonymous]

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@Revelate wrote:

Ah whoopsie I misread.  Congrats on getting through the CH13!

I doubt you'll see something at the 3 year mark, if you do it'll probably be lost in the noise and hard to isolate but I suspect you're going to be on an upward trajectory anyway as your new accounts age and the negatives keep falling further behind... age matters, just 3 years seems doubtful to me personally but I don't have any hard data on that.

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Thanks for the feedback, it really helps to know what i might expect.

[Anonymous]

When you say your mortgage account has many lates prior to 2015, are any of them of 90-day severity or greater?  If so, the presence of a 90-day or greater late payment even nearing 7 years old if it's still on your report is going to overshadow a 3 year old 30-day.  That being said, even the removal of the 30-day late, not just it aging IMO wouldn't result in a score gain.

[Anonymous]

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@Anonymous wrote:

When you say your mortgage account has many lates prior to 2015, are any of them of 90-day severity or greater?  If so, the presence of a 90-day or greater late payment even nearing 7 years old if it's still on your report is going to overshadow a 3 year old 30-day.  That being said, even the removal of the 30-day late, not just it aging IMO wouldn't result in a score gain.

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You could say that...  Here is a look at my payment history from my paper CRs for EQ and TU. Equifax doesn't show any data prior to my loan modification, TU shows all the negative stuff.  I don't have a copy of my Experian paper report, but the online version from Experian doesn't show any data prior to 06/2015.  That might explain why my TU FICO score is significantly lower than the EQ & EX, but there are other differences between the reports.  That's probably a different discussion though.

FICO scores as of 7/22/18 from Experian's 3-bureau report and score service:

Equifax paper report:

Trans Union paper report:

Experian Online CR:

[Anonymous]

Gotcha.

With the presence of 120 day late payments (multiples at that) I would say it's unlikely that there would be any score gain at all from a 30 day late reaching the 3 year mark, or even if the 30 day late were to be removed for that matter.  The majors that are still present, even though they're older are going to be your constraint to score growth with respect to the payment history sector of the FICO pie.